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Southeast England and East Anglia - Weather Chat

Captain Shortwave

By Captain Shortwave
in Regional

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Gowon Veteran

Gowon

Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
Posted

Yes this looks interesting.

 

114-779.GIF?27-12

 

yep.. we need to stay positive cos we could get a few surprises..

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mickeyb44 Aficionado

mickeyb44

Posted
Posted (edited)

Ive just seen the netweather snow risk map in the warning thread, so from wednesday to friday its not looking hopeful. Shame, i would have driven maybe an hour to see lying snow.

 

Hopefully next week or as mentioned above, sunday, can deliver. :)

Edited by mickeyb44
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Southender Seasoned

Southender

Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
Posted (edited)

12z gives a good snow event for East Anglia & SE on Sunday as above

attachicon.gifimage.jpg

Notice the bulge running down the North Sea/East Coast

 

Yes this is exactly what we need, the odd N.Sea disturbance in the unstable flow. The showers coming through the Cheshire Gap etc are very unlikely to make it here intact or offer very little in terms of laying snow. So fingers crossed the N.Sea produces...

Edited by Shrimper
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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted (edited)

Yes this is exactly what we need, the odd N.Sea disturbance in the unstable flow. The showers coming through the Cheshire Gap etc are very unlikely to make it here intact or offer very little in terms of laying snow. So fingers crossed the N.Sea produces...

Correct I do think we will get some showers from up north as the flow is quite strong, more favoured areas are to the N & W looking back at past runs they've been showing a similar solution, for once those more to the East might get something decent. And it is to no surprise it is ripe for such developments IMHO.

Above chart would get the sledge out quite widely I hope it is onto something. :)

Edited by Daniel*
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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Author
Posted

Why did you leave, Matt?  If I get some, I'll take a photo and post it here so that you can see what you're missing! :D

Work reasons mostly, I got a job in Essex and have lived down here ever since. 

Afternoon runs so far, GFS is pretty similar to earlier output with a snow window from Sunday through to Wednesday with the northerly, potential before then too. UKMO looks great and possibly would prolong the northerly spell.

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terryall Contributor

terryall

Posted
  • Location: Whitstable, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and plenty of it.
  • Location: Whitstable, Kent
Posted

Would it just be easier if we , in the SE, took the attitude that, at present, it looks like a no snow event for us. Therefore if any snow does fall it will be a pleasant surprise ( and about time too) and then we have next week to contend with.

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Lauren Veteran

Lauren

Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
Posted

Just to make us all feel jealous....

 

WHITE OUT IN BOSTON.

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john mac Aficionado

john mac

Posted
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.
Posted

Would it just be easier if we , in the SE, took the attitude that, at present, it looks like a no snow event for us. Therefore if any snow does fall it will be a pleasant surprise ( and about time too) and then we have next week to contend with.

Not really it would be easier if people did t have knee jerk reactions to each run. There is a chance of some snow showers from tomorrow night however we will get in on the action from Saturday onwards when the real cold northerly arrives with deeply unstable air causing disturbances in the flow. Snow events could pop up at short notice (6-12 hours ) possibly.

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snowfish1 Aficionado

snowfish1

Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay
Posted (edited)

Ive just revisited the thread - why is everyone suicidal- its looking very good, initial flurries tomorrow night then potentially the main event for the weekend-!

S

Because they remain sceptical. You can't blame them after the last two fiascos. Big build up, big build up....damp squib. The big giveaway is the number of posts in other regionals compared to ours..... Edited by snowfish1
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Hammer Aficionado

Hammer

Posted
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire
Posted (edited)

We don't know, as to far out. But we know it's going to be quite a bit colder as the broader detail is easier to comment on. Risk of snow is there.

Ok, i dont want to annoy anyone but are we looking at the 'possibility' of a decent snow covering this weekend ?

Or just a potential dusting ? :)

Edited by Hammer
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john mac Aficionado

john mac

Posted
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.
Posted

Ok, i dont want to annoy anyone but are we looking at the 'possibility' of a decent snow covering this weekend ?

Or just a potential dusting ? :)

Impossible to say at this range but potential is definitely there
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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted

The bbc forecast 's don't help

Do they ?

The graphics are useless and they change to much

 

I never pay attention to them - Not too bad when it comes to fronts but anything shower related the graphics are utterly pointless

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Hotspur62 Seasoned

Hotspur62

Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)
Posted

I do find with the BBC that when there is uncertainty with regards to snow say 3-4 days out they are very coy about what they put out. They normally just put out forecast for next day and say just keep tuned for future forecasts lol!!.I think there is the fear factor for being wrong(just need to look at NYC for that today and the Mayor is getting slated) and people going mad at them. That is a shame and just my opinion but something I have noticed in recent years.

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TEITS Maestro

TEITS

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
Posted

Pleased to see the Euro4 is suggesting snowfall for my location, which the 06Z also suggested.

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted

Ok, i dont want to annoy anyone but are we looking at the 'possibility' of a decent snow covering this weekend ?

Or just a potential dusting ? :)

No offence to you but it is tedious when this keeps getting repeated. Buckle down, the truth is any showery activity this will be a matter of nowcasting & any disturbances which offer something much more substantial, will be firmed up 6-12hr before the event. All we can do is sit back, in the comfort of our homes. Sunday could be troublesome. And with it being frigid next week, the snow will stick around resulting in very cold minima.

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Roy Apprentice

Roy

Posted
  • Location: Dartford, Kent
  • Location: Dartford, Kent
Posted

Looks like Wed night and especially Thursday we will see some snow showers. On the latest weather, there was quite a large blob stretching from say Swindon to London. I know it's only computer graphics, but this has been shown consistently one way or the other since lunch time. I know it's frustrating, but once the cold air is in place tomorrow afternoon, radar watching will be the the thing to do.


Nina Ridge even said that it's still hard to pin down the exact extent of the shower activity Wed night and Thursday. So it could be less or it could be more extensive. Who knows?

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted

No offence to you but it is tedious when this keeps getting repeated. Buckle down, the truth is any showery activity this will be a matter of nowcasting & any disturbances which offer something much more substantial, will be firmed up 6-12hr before the event. All we can do is sit back, in the comfort of our homes. Sunday could be troublesome. And with it being frigid next week, the snow will stick around resulting in very cold minima.

 

Exactly! Best thing to do is not really talk about snow potential seriously beyond the scope of the EURO4/NMM etc.. because the lower resolution models (GFS, UKMO, GEM etc..) don't handle precipitation well enough.

 

FAX Charts will come in handy for trough placements too.

 

As it currently stands, Thursday will see snow showers in our region (EURO4 supportive of this) but whether a particular area will get snow wont be known until it's quite literally falling out of the sky, as is the nature of showers.

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted

post-19153-0-75385300-1422382005_thumb.j

Like this from a IMBY perspective :good:

Toys with this from fergie, such narrow 'streamers' can accumulate couple of inches if it goes right. :D

We are using UKV now for the higher-res PPN phase forecasting / accumulating snow likelihoods.

 

Thursday early hrs/ early AM is particularly interesting, given the continued modelling of a small-scale cold front moving south through W Midlands/Bristol Channel. Theta-W fields show this well. We suspect this could yield more organised prospect of snow showers for some districts of W Country/central-S England early Thurs but await further runs before committing to the notion with deterministic confidence.

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