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Southeast England and East Anglia - Weather Chat


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I think those going round in circles dissecting forecasts from different forecasters (or the same ones at different times) are just going to tie themselves in knots here. You're in the SE of England,

yeah she just text me the same-

Just had a peak at the 18z UKMO (meso) and it shows the centre of the small low moving SE across the Midlands around 3am then across SE England around 6am, sleet/snow showers swirling around this low

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I'd usually be with you on the hunt for a flake or two but here in Aviemore I'm in snow heaven. Pretty much snowing all day at varying levels of intensity, and the locals must be amused by my unhinged excitement. First visit to a very snowy place and it's been quite overwhelming. Wishing you all the luck tonight, will be back to grey sleety

London on Monday

I was up there last week when they had about 3 ft of snow, it was stunning & my husky was in heaven but as soon as we got back to boring Kent he had a right sulk on & wouldn't get out the car lol I posted a few pics from the loch in Aviemore the other day :)  

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Poor Euro 4.

 

This like the GFS suggests the snow will be restricted to mainly Norfolk and at times it will be marginal here. Our best chance is to hope those showers across the E Midlands pep up as they move SE.

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I was up there last week when they had about 3 ft of snow, it was stunning & my husky was in heaven but as soon as we got back to boring Kent he had a right sulk on & wouldn't get out the car lol I posted a few pics from the loch in Aviemore the other day :)

Been there too beautiful place I was there a couple of years back in April and there was plenty of snow then.
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Poor Euro 4.

 

This like the GFS suggests the snow will be restricted to mainly Norfolk and at times it will be marginal here. Our best chance is to hope those showers across the E Midlands pep up as they move SE.

Slightly confused (maybe a data transfer issue), but this was the output I saw on weatheronline, it did say it was the 18z output.

15020106_3118.gif

 

That said away from East Anglia there isn't much precipitation

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Poor Euro 4.

 

This like the GFS suggests the snow will be restricted to mainly Norfolk and at times it will be marginal here. Our best chance is to hope those showers across the E Midlands pep up as they move SE.

Bear in mind there are 6 hour intervals

post-19153-0-93539400-1422746817_thumb.j

I see the precip to be further inland..

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I love it up there & will be tempted to go strait back up there if we get a no show for any good snow soon lol  :)

I've got a husky too, she goes mental when it snows lol
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Bear in mind there are 6 hour intervals

attachicon.gifimage.jpg

I see the precip to be further inland..

Sorry but that is wrong. Note the precip is only really across Norfolk, Suffolk, Essex and with the exception of N Norfolk it weakens significantly. This can be seen by the 1s and 0s.

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2015/01/31/basis18/ukuk/prec/15020109_3118.gif

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We're not going to be seeing 10cms of snowfall in this region from this cold spell (away from a potential streamer setup later in the week) - that's been clear for some days now - but we may still see something tomorrow. Fact is meto have parts of our region under 5 days of snow related warnings (v rare) and most of us have seen snow falling at some point this winter, with two week-long cold spells. Nothing spectacular but a marked improvement on last winter. We're just 1 significant snow event away (say, in Feb at some time), for all this to be notable when put together. My last significant snow was March 2013, so on that basis we still have 2 months of windows for such an event to transpire...

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When it comes to the outlook for the next 12 hrs im not a massive fan of using the models and prefer the Sat/Radar. However it is worth pointing out that the latest GFS 18Z run doesn't show much in the way of snow with the main band of precip hitting Norfolk, Suffolk. Also it is suggesting this could be marginal in these regions.

 

So please take this on board and try not to expect too much.

 

Sound advice there, looks like key parameters like wet bulb FL are going to be wrong side of marginal so could be a slushy affair if anything falls at all overnight...

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NMM shows a different outcome I rate it higher than Euro4

Meanwhile some showers have intensified Oxford is going to get a covering

post-19153-0-79449500-1422747639_thumb.j

Edited by Daniel*
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Sorry but that is wrong. Note the precip is only really across Norfolk, Suffolk, Essex and with the exception of N Norfolk it weakens significantly. This can be seen by the 1s and 0s.

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2015/01/31/basis18/ukuk/prec/15020109_3118.gif

Lol you can't win with him

He is so optimistic

I do hope he is right

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Still maintain our best chance is these showers over E Midlands that are tracking S. The band further N will really struggle to move inland tomorrow morning. Hope im wrong though!

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Break away ppn clusters are now pushing into parts of the SE. The main ppn band is due in the early hours

Sorry but I cannot see the band currently N of Newcastle reaching E Anglia until around 7am at the earliest.

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Lol you can't win with him

He is so optimistic

I do hope he is right

I am always right -

I am not such a fan of going solely by the models they all have their flaws.

Steve M post is worth a read: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82366-model-output-discussion-23rd-jan-12z-onwards/page-104#entry3158425

*Sarcasm if you was wondering*

what has happened here...

Edited by Daniel*
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Sorry but I cannot see the band currently N of Newcastle reaching E Anglia until around 7am at the earliest.

I always find a combination of IR satellite and radar the best tools is snow situations. If you run the sat loop on sat24 for instance you can see the low moving south off the North East coast. You can see the snow clouds building as they hit land and pull south so very much a nowcast for me. Same on the radar, a numbers of showers forming from what appears nowhere. Hopefully the wraparound from the low will bring in some nice bands over the region through the early hours.

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