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Southeast England and East Anglia - Weather Chat


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I think those going round in circles dissecting forecasts from different forecasters (or the same ones at different times) are just going to tie themselves in knots here. You're in the SE of England,

yeah she just text me the same-

Just had a peak at the 18z UKMO (meso) and it shows the centre of the small low moving SE across the Midlands around 3am then across SE England around 6am, sleet/snow showers swirling around this low

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Very true I feel burnt out this winter thus far, has been enriched with letdowns IMBY, it has to break in our favour. Next frame has showed a slight weakening, come on lad. :p If you do not see me on here you know its not good, I have never spent so much time analysing and what have you to little substance, it really is a fickle business.

NMM is very interesting indeed BANK!

attachicon.gifimage.jpg

That's a work of art right there!!

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Welcome back Beka. Where have you been?

I've been around - hanging on the SW thread. Don't post as much anymore. Little lady keeps me busy and i'm pregnant with another!

 

Need the snow to get training her into this weather malarky! She already loves thunder and "flash flash" - she's 2 1/2 :)

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Lol it is breaking up however there will be more to come I reckon.

Time to use some reverse psychology, torrential rain will pass clearing by 10PM temperatures will rocketing -into the low 30's, with the odd thunderstorm spewing deluges of slugs & snails causing misery to millions.

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I've been around - hanging on the SW thread. Don't post as much anymore. Little lady keeps me busy and i'm pregnant with another!

 

Need the snow to get training her into this weather malarky! She already loves thunder and "flash flash" - she's 2 1/2 :)

Congratulations!!!!!!!

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If there's anything the last few winters have taught me, it's that the Met Office is well worth my tax money!

Take last nights "Polar Low" for example, if the met office aren't interested it ain't going to happen.

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I seem to remember when a Thames streamer set up a couple of years back they had a red warning out before it had even started. And for a set up like a streamer that's impressive.

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0.3C here now and still dropping slowly. The nice thing about this nice dry air and a breeze is that the roads soon dry out. Think I may wash the car tomorrow, it might stay clean for at least a day!

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Take last nights "Polar Low" for example, if the met office aren't interested it ain't going to happen.

MO did not forecast the polar low no one did it developed of its own accord such is nature of a cold unstable airflow, MO messed up the track as well so limited praise for them from me, they get it all good when it is all fine and dandy, but as soon as interesting evolving weather pops up the uncertainty makes viewing worthless IMHO.

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The showers to the North and North-West wont make it to our region - The only reason they begun to yesterday was because of a trough sinking Southwards aiding shower activity across the Midlands > our region.

 

Overnight it's looking relatively dry actually, maybe the odd rain/sleet shower. It's tomorrow that colder air moves in and we see a frontal system sitting down the Eastern side of the country

 

post-7073-0-16706900-1422649402_thumb.gi

 

This will aid shower activity along the E Coast down into E Anglia, shower extent into London/SE a little more uncertain. NMM looks great but very little support from the EURO4 or NetWx Model which has performed remarkably well recently

 

post-7073-0-87768200-1422649502_thumb.gi

 

post-7073-0-43575800-1422649503_thumb.gi

 

post-7073-0-87376500-1422649549_thumb.pn


I seem to remember when a Thames streamer set up a couple of years back they had a red warning out before it had even started. And for a set up like a streamer that's impressive.

 

Streamers can be fairly easy to forecast based on temperature boundaries/convergence zones - They can crop up out of no where but they aren't outside the scope of forecasting either

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Plenty of new opportunities keep cropping up at short notice.

 

Showery activity expected to increase as the night goes on, with a few of the showers modelled by some of the hi-res models forecast to reach down to our little corner of the UK. Demonstrated by the NMM below:

 

nmm_uk1-42-14-0.png?30-17

 

In to tomorrow morning and we see a rather complicated mix developing in association with that occluded front across the Eastern side of the UK. The reality may be similar to that of this morning - a really localised affair. Unfortunately there does seem to be a warm sector linked in to the occlusion, best visible from the Theta E 850 charts:

 

nmm_uk1-5-18-0.png?30-17

 

Cold air either side of this, so it may well be a case of initial snow, then a rain/sleet/snow mixture, before it turns back to sleet/snow on the trailing edge. If we can maintain some intensity then we may see it remain as wet snow during the morning, but come afternoon anything falling looks likely, at this juncture at least, to be falling as rain/sleet - so the best case scenario is hope the precipitation has moved through your area as early as possible! If there is to be a sweet-spot for this, it may well be somewhere between the M1 - A1 where we could potentially see this as almost all sleet/snow before the front slows as it attempts to clear further East.

 

So plenty of opportunities still to come over the coming days I would suggest, and indeed the risk of some more snowfall during Saturday night as a little system works its way down the North Sea:

 

nmm_uk1-1-36-0.png?30-18

 

SK

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Congratulations!!!!!!!

Thanks. A few days off 4 months gone and still feel like plop plops and being sick :(

Don't wanna talk too much might drive the mods mad in here lol.

Better trot off to the mod thread and try and make sense of whats coming up although I feel

totally lost now!

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I'm confident that we'll all see some snow on the ground before the end of this cold spell.

Then again I have had a few beers and I also believe Brighton can still make the play offs.

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ECM mean tonight is worth taking note of:

 

EDM1-96.GIF?30-0EDM1-120.GIF?30-0EDM1-144.GIF?30-0

 

72 hours of a NEly flow, slowly veering more and more Easterly as time goes on. And with uppers in this range:

 

EDM0-96.GIF?30-0EDM0-120.GIF?30-0EDM0-144.GIF?30-0

 

No risk of any marginality there

 

SK

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MO did not forecast the polar low no one did it developed of its own accord such is nature of a cold unstable airflow, MO messed up the track as well so limited praise for them from me, they get it all good when it is all fine and dandy, but as soon as interesting evolving weather pops up the uncertainty makes viewing worthless IMHO.

I think you slightly missed my point Daniel, in their eyes it wasn't an event worthy of anything other than a low advisory

despite the reaction on here . Was it actually a true polar low ? 

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ECM mean tonight is worth taking note of:

 

EDM1-96.GIF?30-0EDM1-120.GIF?30-0EDM1-144.GIF?30-0

 

72 hours of a NEly flow, slowly veering more and more Easterly as time goes on. And with uppers in this range:

 

EDM0-96.GIF?30-0EDM0-120.GIF?30-0

 

No risk of any marginality there

 

SK

Is this consistent with all of the ECMs runs over the past 24 hours?

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ECM mean tonight is worth taking note of:

 

EDM1-96.GIF?30-0EDM1-120.GIF?30-0EDM1-144.GIF?30-0

 

72 hours of a NEly flow, slowly veering more and more Easterly as time goes on. And with uppers in this range:

 

EDM0-96.GIF?30-0EDM0-120.GIF?30-0EDM0-144.GIF?30-0

 

No risk of any marginality there

 

SK

 

Moisture picked up from the North sea will be a possible feature here. Very exciting times ahead

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ECM mean tonight is worth taking note of:

 

EDM1-96.GIF?30-0EDM1-120.GIF?30-0EDM1-144.GIF?30-0

 

72 hours of a NEly flow, slowly veering more and more Easterly as time goes on. And with uppers in this range:

 

EDM0-96.GIF?30-0EDM0-120.GIF?30-0EDM0-144.GIF?30-0

 

No risk of any marginality there

 

SK

Its good !!! but its not quite Carling. 

If only that Ridge would extend a little bit over to Scandinavia.

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Is this consistent with all of the ECMs runs over the past 24 hours?

 

Fairly, though a bigger swing towards a flow more Easterly oriented since the 0z suite.

 

Also worth taking a look at the postage stamps:

 

mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_

 

A fair few members blow up the Iberian low somewhat more, adding to the uncertainty as we move in to the medium range.

 

SK

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Fairly, though a bigger swing towards a flow more Easterly oriented since the 0z suite.

 

Also worth taking a look at the postage stamps:

 

mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_

 

A fair few members blow up the Iberian low somewhat more, adding to the uncertainty as we move in to the medium range.

 

SK

Thanks for the charts SK, I think we are at a crossroads this weekend and will know by Sunday evening if we're heading east

or west. Could possibly define the rest of winter.

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