Southeast England and East Anglia - Weather Chat

[feb1991blizzard]

YepFeb1991

 

High Pressure shaped like the sausage between Iceland and Norway has a nearly 100% strike rate for the SE With any Euro Trough, it is interesting to see.

 

Going to look at the 9th Jan 2003 archived charts to see how that small wedge of High Pressure looked on the charts!

 

Yes, plus Paul people look only at uppers sometimes but all the great South East cold spells with big convective Easterlies had low heights, if you only have shallow heights you will end up with light flurries / scattered showers more often than not, all the great events had one thing in common, close to 520dam heights or even below, the surface pressure was around average in most cases and even above in some.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Although having said that, the above variables are linked of course, I really like this table which was posted by Sebastian I  think in the model thread, I had it before but my computer broke.

 

[TSNWK]

Sorry.. But it really is a sign of how desperate we are becoming as a report a pre noon temputure of 4.1 in the middle of this cold spell.. That we start wheeling our charts from 12 years ago and FI 06z runs to keep the moving along.

[Kent Blizzard]

The next Fergie update will be interesting !!!!

[West is Best]

Blizzard here on and off since dawn but it's not biting. Some of the grass is holding white, but anything concrete is wet mush. The ground is sodden. It's beautiful seeing it fall, bl oo dy miserable seeing it melt on touchdown. Argh.

[Paul Sherman]

Sorry.. But it really is a sign of how desperate we are becoming as a report a pre noon temputure of 4.1 in the middle of this cold spell.. That we start wheeling our charts from 12 years ago and FI 06z runs to keep the moving along.

 

Wheeling charts from 12 years ago ?

 

If you actually read the posts you will see I only used it as a comparison, chances of it veryfying very slim with all the other Models showing a High Pressure bang slap over the Uk and not in the more favourable position further North.

 

GFS Is like a z list celebrity on Twatter, it puts out some good tweets for a while then loses its audience, as the audience wanes it comes up with a shell shock update so it keeps its minions, I make no secret of hating the model partly due to 4 runs per day which it does not need as too many people on here take each run as gospel, there was a reason 2 pages ago I called it GooFuS!

[lawrenk]

Sorry.. But it really is a sign of how desperate we are becoming as a report a pre noon temputure of 4.1 in the middle of this cold spell.. That we start wheeling our charts from 12 years ago and FI 06z runs to keep the moving along.

I don't think anyone's claiming the GF6 is guaranteed to verify but it is the most recent model output and surely worthy of discussion at least?

[SMU]

Something to keep one eye on over the next 24 hours is how the mid term of the models develops

the 06z which is notoriously bad has moved to a more favourable solution for snow in the SE

 

for those of you who want snowy easterlies wind direction is KEY

 

If the parameters are right for snow - thats low 500 heights sub 540 DAM & sub -10c air then it all boils down to wind direction.

 

To get widespread snow here we need as close to an direct easterly as possible.

Imagine this.

 

East is 90 degrees, NE is 45 degrees- the westward propergation of snow showers into London, Susses, Essex & surrey is 100% correlated to how close to 90 degrees the windflow is

 

so take 90 degrees-

EVERY county gets hit-  thats sussex both, kent, london, essex , & suffolk + Herts.

 

Swing that dial to 75-80 degrees & you have wiped out most of the NW part of the region as well as western sussex

 

Move the swingometer around 65-75 degrees & you wipe out most of London & essex & NW kent.

The further you get round to 45 degrees you really only swipe east kent & suffolk....

 

 

for reference

the Thames streamer is usually 85-95 degrees

the Mid kent streamer is usually 60-80 degrees

the east kent streamer is usually 30-60 degrees              - there are some overlaps.

 

With that in mind if you are a novice & want to snow will it snow in the easterly IMBY use this 1 link on the GFS high res.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/850-hpa/3h.htm

 

it shows the uppers & the windflow. -

 

here is the 00z for the BEST window this week.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2015020100-0-102.png?0  -8 to -9c air & windflow 40 degrees

would equal an east kent streamer only.

 

Now review the 06z from the link above

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2015020106/120-7UK.GIF?01-6

this shows friday morning as a very strong 75-80 degree windflow - bringing a lot more in the way of snow showers across the SE corner.

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2015020106/120-779UK.GIF?01-6

then again further down the line

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2015020106/198-7UK.GIF?01-6

 

 

So IF your still hunting for anything decent then follow that link & see how we fair....

S

[Paul Sherman]

Also the great winters between 1981 and 1987 had 1 thing in commom which was also true of 2010, the 2 weeks prior to the snow actually coming we had 10-14 days of Freezing Fog, Hard Frosts etc, the saying get the cold in first and the snow will follow is crucial in the Uk, and we simply have not had any cold at all since the wintry mix has been falling, it really has not been cold enough which is why we are suffering and will continue to suffer, maybe a few weeks of hard frosts, freezing fog is what we need going forward to something maybe happening mid feb onwards!

[lassie23]

It snowed for most of last night, unfortunately it was the worst kind of snow (non stick instant melt) and that's because it was accompanied by a transient wintry mix which was full of localised warm sectors which made the whole thing marginal and led to the  upgrade being downgraded       This is the best........ahem 'cold spell' since two weeks ago. What's the point of snow if it doesn't stick.

[Paul Sherman]

It snowed for most of last night, unfortunately it was the worst kind of snow (non stick instant melt) and that's because it was accompanied by a transient wintry mix which was full of localised warm sectors which made the whole thing marginal and led to the  upgrade being downgraded       This is the best........ahem 'cold spell' since two weeks ago. What's the point of snow if it doesn't stick.

 

Ahahaha - Great Use of Words - Just Bolded the Swear Filter Ones for ya!

[Daniel*]

GFS 6z is very nice indeed... bitterly cold cold run and we lose the marginality! BFTE.

HP is further north on this one, which then later on inches over Scandinavia, this helps funnel frigid cold european air SE/EA is on the firing line. We get a established scandi high all the way out in D15. If this run verifies we'd get a proper cold spell, not this N'ly nuisance. That only does night shifts - I hope the 12z continues the trend, as we would be on to something great, not interested in HP dominance = no snow.

[Brassmonkeylily]

Well, the Met Office just updated  yellow warnings for the East and South East right up to Wednesday maybe our cold spell still has some legs…!!

[Norfolk_N_chance]

Metoffice warnings for snow being dropped for tomorrow- means it might actually snow now lol.

Wouldn't be surprised if they drop warnings for Tuesday and Wednesday at this rate.

Temps too high and ground too wet for anything to settle.

Roll on next "cold spell"

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Wholeheartedly agree. All the potential washed away by marginality. At least with HP building for the end of the week, there might be some pleasant days of winter sunshine.

 

I'm afraid to say I agree - had it not been for my hour or so of lying snow last week I'd have been seriously micturated-off with this "cold" spell.  Seems as though we can't get proper cold in this part of the country without HLB.

[Daniel*]

Well, the Met Office just updated  yellow warnings for the East and South East right up to Wednesday maybe our cold spell still has some legs…!!

Indeed it is unusual for the Met Office to give them out so early, meaning increased confidence.

Snow showers will continue to affect many eastern and northeastern parts of the UK through Wednesday. The focus of showers is likely to transfer from eastern Scotland to parts of eastern and southeastern England, as well as some central areas of England, through the day. Some heavy snow showers are possible. Local accumulations of 1-3 cm are likely away from immediate coasts, with locally more than this over higher ground such as the North York Moors and Lincolnshire Wolds.

The public should be aware for the potential of disruption to travel.

The very cold air mass is likely to continue to affect much of the UK during Wednesday. Along the eastern coasts of both Scotland and England, snow showers are likely in a strong northeasterly wind. Snow showers are likely to ease through the day across eastern Scotland and northeast England, whilst conversely shower activity is likely to increase across other parts of eastern England, with some snow showers being driven inland at times.

Local Authorities affected and associated warning levels

Bracknell Forest, Buckinghamshire, East Sussex, Greater London, Hampshire, Kent, Medway, Milton Keynes, Oxfordshire, Reading, Slough, Surrey, West Berkshire, West Sussex, Windsor and Maidenhead, Wokingham

^^ North Sea awaketh... 2010 showed it can be very rewarding.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Something to keep one eye on over the next 24 hours is how the mid term of the models develops

the 06z which is notoriously bad has moved to a more favourable solution for snow in the SE

 

for those of you who want snowy easterlies wind direction is KEY

 

If the parameters are right for snow - thats low 500 heights sub 540 DAM & sub -10c air then it all boils down to wind direction.

 

To get widespread snow here we need as close to an direct easterly as possible.

Imagine this.

 

East is 90 degrees, NE is 45 degrees- the westward propergation of snow showers into London, Susses, Essex & surrey is 100% correlated to how close to 90 degrees the windflow is

 

so take 90 degrees-

EVERY county gets hit-  thats sussex both, kent, london, essex , & suffolk + Herts.

 

Swing that dial to 75-80 degrees & you have wiped out most of the NW part of the region as well as western sussex

 

Move the swingometer around 65-75 degrees & you wipe out most of London & essex & NW kent.

The further you get round to 45 degrees you really only swipe east kent & suffolk....

 

 

for reference

the Thames streamer is usually 85-95 degrees

the Mid kent streamer is usually 60-80 degrees

the east kent streamer is usually 30-60 degrees              - there are some overlaps.

 

With that in mind if you are a novice & want to snow will it snow in the easterly IMBY use this 1 link on the GFS high res.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/850-hpa/3h.htm

 

it shows the uppers & the windflow. -

 

here is the 00z for the BEST window this week.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2015020100-0-102.png?0  -8 to -9c air & windflow 40 degrees

would equal an east kent streamer only.

 

Now review the 06z from the link above

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2015020106/120-7UK.GIF?01-6

this shows friday morning as a very strong 75-80 degree windflow - bringing a lot more in the way of snow showers across the SE corner.

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2015020106/120-779UK.GIF?01-6

then again further down the line

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2015020106/198-7UK.GIF?01-6

 

 

So IF your still hunting for anything decent then follow that link & see how we fair....

S

What about Norfolk, Steve?  Are you including us with Suffolk (bit of local rivalry there - not dissimilar to calling Lancashire "Yorkshire"!), or have you just forgotten that we exist?!

[Sara]

I dont like the words"away from the coast"!! Met office popping off every 10mins.

[claret047]

well the most exciting thing for me, is finding my recycling bags ,[which have been blown around the garden],, leaving them, then coming back later to find them in totally different places, so no snow, but trying to make it more exciting,

Blimey i really need a life    

My recycling bag never did turn up after the squall line came through on Thursday

Kind Regards

 

Dave

[Timmytour]

Wondering whether we'll have to wait till next month for anything substantial but even then it looks dodgy

After all....it is "March an' all"

[mulzy]

Someone wake me up when this "cold" spell actually starts....

 

5C (dp -1.8C)

[Radiating Dendrite]

So much moaning in this thread. Some people need to wake up and realise we do not live in the Siberian tundra.

Personally this "cold spell" is a million times better than the dross served up last year. We have some interesting charts to look at and wintriness falling from the sky. Mother nature sometimes needs a little foreplay before she gets going...so calm down and enjoy the ride.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

So much moaning in this thread. Some people need to wake up and realise we do not live in the Siberian tundra.

Personally this "cold spell" is a million times better than the dross served up last year. We have some interesting charts to look at and wintriness falling from the sky. Mother nature sometimes needs a little foreplay before she gets going...so calm down and enjoy the ride.

 

 

Normally, I'd agree with you, but my point (and that of many I think) is that what we have at the moment is the worst of both worlds.  It's cold, but the presence of warm sectors and layers means that most ppn. is either falling as rain/sleet or, if it is actually falling as snow, is melting as soon as it hits the ground.  As a net result, we have that wet, raw cold that this country experiences all to often, rather than the crisp, drier cold that either accompanies non-marginal snow or a settled spell of sunny winter High Pressure.

[Kent Blizzard]

So much moaning in this thread. Some people need to wake up and realise we do not live in the Siberian tundra.

With my short amount of time in here I've relised it's better to join the moaners because if you go against them and offer up hope and a different view point your classed as "hopecasting" and you certainly can't challenge them and ask them to offer up reasons.

So to keep the peace...yeah winter is cr*p and will continue to be cr*p till Spring arrives, then Spring we will get pointless cold.

Edited February 1, 2015 by Kent Blizzard

[Roy]

Just watched latest BBC news 24 weather. There was no mention by Stav whatsoever of snow showers (anywhere) Tuesday and Wednesday. Also temps of 6c. Doesn't correlate with the updated warnings, unless the forecast was pre-recorded from earlier?

[Daniel*]

Slither of Colder 850s are incoming from the arctic north -10C 850s in parts of the United Kingdom.

-8/-9 850s for us it is looking quite dry but hopefully there could be some troughs yielding snow.

Decent frost tonight some places might get close to -6C, this will help cool the ground down, so if we do get snow there's increased likelihood of it settling the main reason there were no accumulations.

Thus far as there's not been enough established cold, getting to the surface. Monday onwards and depth of cold increases and so may the snow risk. I think we may get something out this month.

Edited February 1, 2015 by Daniel*