Southeast England and East Anglia - Weather Chat

[NO LONGER POSTING]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/precipitations/3h.htm brilliant     

[Downpour]

Well you're brave for making that call because the cold spell is yet to start and is forecast to last for much of next week too, so you're using model output to predict snow at 168 hours+... You may of course be right and certainly in a nw/northerly setup the SE is never going to be in prime position, but the better bet would be to wait and see what comes up.

Well anyone can do that. I am simply going by the charts!

[Downpour]

Captain - yet again though that chart does NOT show snow for the SE. It shows snowfall in the favoured areas hundreds of miles away.

[shotski]

Captain - yet again though that chart does NOT show snow for the SE. It shows snowfall in the favoured areas hundreds of miles away.

But that's only upto 48 hours !! Any precipitation will be mainly heading SE if it doesn't weaken.

[Captain Shortwave]

Captain - yet again though that chart does NOT show snow for the SE. It shows snowfall in the favoured areas hundreds of miles away.

I stated in my post that the Euro 4 shows showers moving west to east Wednesday night, you can follow the previous frames as the showers push into the west during the afternoon and reach the Midlands by midnight. Hopefully when the 06z update comes out then there will be snow showers over the region on the last frames (T48h). By midnight the showers have simply not made it to our region yet.

[Lampostwatcher]

It will be a case of radar watching the showers develope and move towards us some might make some might not a bit like trying to penetrate an egg

[Paul]

Fwiw - Jo F is preparing a watch at the moment, and has asked us to create a snow risk map for it, she's requested we include the SE within that, with a 30% risk of >1cm snowfall in the region between Weds and Fri. So not exactly super high (as expected) but certainly not the flat out zero chance as painted by some!

[Downpour]

But that's only upto 48 hours !! Any precipitation will be mainly heading SE if it doesn't weaken.

Again, that is a big IF. No-one is denying it will be cold. That is nailed on. What I am saying is that it will be largely dry in the SE based on what the current charts are saying. 

[Roy]

The shower distribution has still not been firmed up. And troughs can develop within six hours as has previously been mentioned. In a volatile situation like this anyone could get snow over the next seven days or so. And during the night, a chance of some settling snow. Not so much during the day however. At least the weather will be different and there will be more anticipation than there has been for the last couple of months of benign weather

[Downpour]

It will be a case of radar watching the showers develope and move towards us some might make some might not a bit like trying to penetrate an egg

My most hated phrases this winter (meaning)

 

Marginal (rain)

A band of rain, sleet and snow (rain)

30% chance of precipitation (bone dry)

Potential (cold and dry)

Mild sector (heavy rain)

It's whether the precipitation gets here (bone dry)

To the north and west of London (one flake of snow on the top of the Chiltern Hills)

Wintry showers (sleety rain)

To the north and east of London (2" of snow in Lincolnshire)

A wintry picture (cold rain)

Snow can pop up just about anywhere (dry as the Sahara in August)

Enjoy the ride (lament the distinct lack of snow)

Edited January 27, 2015 by Downpour

[mulzy]

Just a bit of expectations management for those of us in the SE.

 

The upcoming cold spell will feel very cold especially in the wind - however temperatures will rise to 5C by day and there will be a frost on most nights.  There is likely to be little precipitation and any precipitation that falls is only likely to be a wintry mix unless you have significant elevation.  This is not likely to be a vintage cold spell.  Time will tell as ever....

Edited January 27, 2015 by mulzy

[tcc]

Again, that is a big IF. No-one is denying it will be cold. That is nailed on. What I am saying is that it will be largely dry in the SE based on what the current charts are saying. 

 

You could well be right, but if you're going by charts then the link given on the previous page shows plenty of showery activity of snow, based on GFS. So which charts are you basing that on? If it's just the Euro 4 then it hasn't come into range yet.

[TEITS]

Just a bit of expectations management for those of us in the SE.

 

The upcoming cold spell will feel very cold especially in the wind - however temperatures will rise to 5C by day and there will be a frost on most nights.  There is likely to be little precipitation and any precipitation that falls is only likely to be a wintry mix unless you have significant elevation.  This is not likely to be a vintage cold spell.  Time will tell as ever....

For some days your assesment is accurate. However at times snowfall won't be marginal i.e Wednesday night/Thurs and it is during this period when snow showers may reach this area on a W/WNW,ly. A greater risk of this for E Anglia compared to the SE though. Less cold Fri/Sat when your assesment is more accurate but then uncertainity with regards to the much colder N,ly thereafter.

[Lampostwatcher]

When's the next cold spell ?

Apparently we are not getting any snow this time

[Bogman]

When's the next cold spell ?

Apparently we are not getting any snow this time

 

 

Again.

[Shunter]

Just a bit of expectations management for those of us in the SE.

 

The upcoming cold spell will feel very cold especially in the wind - however temperatures will rise to 5C by day and there will be a frost on most nights.  There is likely to be little precipitation and any precipitation that falls is only likely to be a wintry mix unless you have significant elevation.  This is not likely to be a vintage cold spell.  Time will tell as ever....

 

 

Just to add to that ...I work for the Highways Agency and we've just been requested to switch on the under surface carriageway heating on the M4

[Lampostwatcher]

Just to add to that ...I work for the Highways Agency and we've just been requested to switch on the under surface carriageway heating on the M4

lol

[throwoff]

BBc weather was just quite stern on a disruption warning from snow, showed a large blob of white over Medway for Thursday...

[mickeyb44]

Very pleasant outside.

 

Im thinking, lampost watch for a slim risk or boston watch for stunning images of mega snow.

May do both, good luck everyone for tomorrow night im really not getting my hopes up at all.

[Lauren]

Well if it's any consolation the East Coast doesn't seem to have had the Red Alert level of snow that was forecast either.

[Downpour]

Just to add to that ...I work for the Highways Agency and we've just been requested to switch on the under surface carriageway heating on the M4

You will only need it on the eastbound carriageway.

 

The border between snow and rain always runs down the middle of the motorway. 

[Kentieo Weather]

A bit of a downgrade over the pond only 1-2ins of snow per hour not the 3-4 ins. Boy would I be happy for 1-2 ins of snow per hour.

scrap that I would even take 1-2cms per hour.

[throwoff]

I wouldn't be too worried, the BBC have even switched to the snow graphic leading into and out of the weather.. They seem to sense a big pasting

[lassie23]

A bit of a downgrade over the pond only 1-2ins of snow per hour not the 3-4 ins. Boy would I be happy for 1-2 ins of snow per hour.

scrap that I would even take 1-2cms per hour.

Or 1 to 2cm per winter The Boston cam was just an orange haze lol. Sunny and spring like outside. So spring like, that things have started growing in my garden and my cat is sun bathing.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Serious? People knocking the up and coming cold spell already.. 

 

One word... 

 

Sad.

 

Get a grip.. Just like this cold spell is going to do on the UK.. Snow or no snow.. The nights will be bitter and YES some will see some snow from showers.. just because a model does not show it in your backyard does not mean it won't snow.. and we are still 48 hours away from the cold REALLY gripping in after tomorrow.

 

 

EDIT:

 

Surprise surprise..

 

Snow showers pushing through..

 

 

 

 

Edited January 27, 2015 by Surrey