Model Output Discussion - 16th Jan 12z onwards - Smile While You Post!

[winterof79]

OK which clown came up with this pertubation

 

Very sombre in here today.The GEFS continue to model the trough to our east and interesting Arctic profiles.

The predicted trough will provide many Northern and North/Western parts with difficult wintry conditions

Edited January 23, 2015 by winterof79

[Altostratus]

Maybe this isnt the time and place but each winter i see a lot of folks putting a lot of store in Teleconnections and background signals and every year the weather continues to be a chaos system in which even incredible amounts of super computing power cant forecast accurately past 5 days. I know as 4 or 5 years ago i was trying to do the same and learn from events but to me its a fool's game, like trying to back horses, because there are no repeating signals, pattern matches, call it what you will. 

 

All we can really do is look at trends in the long term models, play the short game and hope computing power evolves to better long range prediction over time ....

 

People like Steve and Ian and IDO do a grand job trying to make sense of it all within these ranges but OPI, AAM, MJO, SST's etc .. too many variables ... when a butterfly flaps it's wings ....

 

Agreed. There are far too many variable and complex interactions to draw any meaningful conclusions from teleconnections in isolation. Statistically they may be useful as one of an array of inputs into complex seasonal models, however even the UKMet model hasn't proven it's worth yet.

 

Whilst I understand people’s frustration re transitory ridges, far worse charts could be shown. Agreed that NWP do not appear to be picking up on a signal for a major shift in global waves just yet, but perhaps the driver for a pattern shift could be the progged trough over central Europe and pressure building in across Northern Scandi. As Steve alluded to, the PV chunk over Baffin hasn’t really moved all winter and therefore any chance of a pressure rise over GL would therefore have to come from a ridge backing west from Northern Scandi/Arctic area. On the plus side, at least there is no consistent Euro high forecast with the jet flattening and stampeding Russia…best case scenario from what I envisage would be for a Jan 1985 type evolution....anyway let's see what the next few days bring.  

Edited January 23, 2015 by Altostratus

[Timmytour]

In terms of the pattern of daily mean CETs, January of this year to date bears a close resemblance to that of 1927. It wouldn't be good news for fans of the cold if that continued to be the case. However, I'm not so sure that the models aren't pointing us in that direction...

1st FEB 2015 from GFS
 


1st Feb 1927






 

[Paul]

Latest from Michael Fish, changeable with flip-flopping temperatures and some very windy weather possible mid next week, but then something potentially colder brewing later..

 

https://vimeo.com/117588729

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=6417;sess=

[frosty ground]

Maybe this isnt the time and place but each winter i see a lot of folks putting a lot of store in Teleconnections and background signals and every year the weather continues to be a chaos system in which even incredible amounts of super computing power cant forecast accurately past 5 days. I know as 4 or 5 years ago i was trying to do the same and learn from events but to me its a fool's game, like trying to back horses, because there are no repeating signals, pattern matches, call it what you will. 

 

All we can really do is look at trends in the long term models, play the short game and hope computing power evolves to better long range prediction over time ....

 

People like Steve and Ian and IDO do a grand job trying to make sense of it all within these ranges but OPI, AAM, MJO, SST's etc .. too many variables ... when a butterfly flaps it's wings ....

AKA it's hard we failed so why bother?

[Paul]

Going to lock this shortly and open a fresh one up. 

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82366-model-output-discussion-23rd-jan-12z-onwards/