Model Output Discussion - 16th Jan 12z onwards - Smile While You Post!

[feno13]

Now we know how the predicted cold period has actually verified, does anyone have the anomolys for the past week and the current MJO phase charts to see if it is indeed the MJO that has been driving the current trop pattern.

Will be interesting to see if the strat does indeed drive the trop in the 5/12 day period

The first part of your post is confusing . The predicted cold period has ACTUALLY verified ??? . Nothing has actually verified yet

[Ali1977]

The Northerly that has been shown for a few days late next week on several models has gone walkabout on the pub run....is it going to prove correct - I hope not!!!

Edited January 21, 2015 by Ali1977

[igloo]

Azores high to influential on our part of the world at T198. This sends everything east!

yes this evenings GFS wants to give us a early spring with temps you would expect in april in only 8 days time i hope its wrong

Edited January 21, 2015 by igloo

[Jason M]

The first part of your post is confusing . The predicted cold period has ACTUALLY verified ??? . Nothing has actually verified yet

 

He's talking about the 'current cold spell'.

 

In relation to the 18Z GFS the main positive I can take from it, is that it will be gone when we all wake up. Azures high in charge with the entire PV setting up home over Canada and Greenland. Only one run of course, but the outlook just looks straightforward zonal to me as of tonight.

[Recretos]

The past days which were under MJO 7, showed a bit poor relation to the phase 7 composite for January El Nino years. At some places even a negative correlation applies.

The only bright points of correlation seem to be the Euro negative anomaly, which I am a bit sceptical to relate only to MJO, but I do give it some credit for its possible influence.

And the next correlation point is of course the N Pac. low, but that is a clear ENSO signal, not really MJO on its own.

Generally, I am personally not impressed with the MJO at the moment, and given how the whole trop-strat dynamics are soon going to get a re-configuration, I would not bet too much on it. But thats just me.

[Interitus]

Recretos did you apply any lag time with those composites? The lagged relationship in the original work by Cassou can be seen here - http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v455/n7212/fig_tab/nature07286_F3.html

 

In general the signal is fairly weak.

Edited January 21, 2015 by Interitus

[Trom]

Very interesting again that a cold spell coincides with a quiet interlude on the sun. This is not coincidence and cannot be ignored imo. Unfortunately, there has been an uptick in activity today and this looks likely to increase over the next few days. This coincides with our cold snap ending!

Surely there would be a lag in activity and the impact on our planet.  Presumably what ever mechanisms are in play don't travel the galaxy at the speed of light?

 

Edit: A google search reveals a CME (coronal mass ejection) event takes on average 98 hours and a solar flare between 24 and 48 hours.

Edited January 21, 2015 by Trom

[Gael_Force]

Yes well pointed out.....does anyone think that eventually all the pieces of the puzzle will be put together to be able to confidentially call say weather patterns correctly on a consistent basis for say a 20-30 day timescale??? Surely if we don't understand how all the pieces fit the models that are programmed as they are (I:e not truly correct by today's understanding) then they are pretty much useless for say a period of 5 day plus?

 

Not any time soon......

 

[Recretos]

Recretos did you apply any lag time with those composites? The lagged relationship in the original work by Cassou can be seen here - http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v455/n7212/fig_tab/nature07286_F3.html

 

In general the signal is fairly weak.

No I havent applied any lag, because there is not enough dates. But if I apply a "virtual" lag, its not much of an improvement.

[feno13]

He's talking about the 'current cold spell'.

 

In relation to the 18Z GFS the main positive I can take from it, is that it will be gone when we all wake up. Azures high in charge with the entire PV setting up home over Canada and Greenland. Only one run of course, but the outlook just looks straightforward zonal to me as of tonight.

Thanks for that , appreciated

[Jason M]

This caught my eye this morning from the GEFS

Zonal anyone?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=240&code=1&mode=0&carte=0

[Ali1977]

ECM looking very interesting again...GFS not so!!

[That ECM]

This caught my eye this morning from the GEFS

Zonal anyone?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=240&code=1&mode=0&carte=0

No thanks, I'll take this.....

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/902/ECH1-240_xsy8.GIF

[KTtom]

Not a bad ECM but also a very frustrating one as it brings home what a potent northerly we could have with just a little more amplification from the Azores high....

 

 

 

Extremely cold upper due north.

Edited January 22, 2015 by KTtom

[bluearmy]

Thanks for the above andrej. Tbh, I haven't been convinced what is actually driving the pattern. the models may be using the MJO but if the actual pattern that emerges isn't what was predicted then perhaps their reliance on that tool in their number crunching is responsible?

Similarly the upcoming euro trough. As was shown on strat thread, this is strat induced. ECM is much deeper than other models. Is it wrong? Is the operational, with far more horizontal levels through the trop and strat better at seeing the downwelling? Perhaps the extra resolution is overdoing the signal?

if the former, then it could be a while before the gefs see this. If the latter, then it could be another fail by the ECM op (and ens as they also see the deep trough). One would hope the new gfs would do a decent job on this so it's lack of agreement is a concern that this trough will be either deep enough or be able to back far enough west to affect the uk effectively.

just have to wait and see.

Edited January 22, 2015 by bluearmy

[Man With Beard]

Not a bad ECM but also a very frustrating one as it brings home what a potent northerly we could have with just a little more amplification from the Azores high....

Recm1681.gif

 

Recm2161.gif

 

Recm2401.gif

 

Extremely cold upper due north.

Two more days on this northerly and we're looking at something extremely cold - uppers well below -20C around 500 miles north of Scotland. Possible but unlikely.

[Captain Shortwave]

Not a bad ECM but also a very frustrating one as it brings home what a potent northerly we could have with just a little more amplification from the Azores high....

Recm1681.gif

 

Recm2161.gif

 

Recm2401.gif

 

Extremely cold upper due north.

Always good sometimes to look at the whole hemispheric view

Now this makes the ECM look much more promising as the Canadian lobe gets cut off and sinks into the US. That next low will engage the deep Euro trough and slide south east through the UK setting up an absolute beast of a northerly. Still major caution considering it's the ECM day 10 chart, we really do need something like this to move closer to the reliable than this.

The GFS is not interested to be honest with this solution and the GEM sort of sits between the two with at least some decent PM incursions.

Edited January 22, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Ali1977]

ECM has been fairly consistant with this flow later next week, and with a little bit of backing from the METO.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Always good sometimes to look at the whole hemispheric view

Now this makes the ECM look much more promising as the Canadian lobe gets cut off and sinks into the US. That next low will engage the deep Euro trough and slide south east through the UK setting up an absolute beast of a northerly. Still major caution considering it's the ECM day 10 chart, we really do need something like this to move closer to the reliable than this.

The GFS is not interested to be honest with this solution and the GEM sort of sits between the two with at least some decent PM incursions.

The way I read that chart is northerly will last 24 hours as the low just to the south of Greenland has one name on it, the uk , toppling the high, the segment of vortex over the U.S will join back up with the main lobe , I don't think this notherly is going to happen to be honest , certainly nothing to get excited about . Hope I'm wrong but been burnt to many times . May get some interest a week or so later but untill I see cross model agreement then I don't believe it.

Having the strat on side is all well and good but it rarely delivers to our tiny island.

Edited January 22, 2015 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[TEITS]

The ensembles below say it all to me this morning.

 

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20150122/00/t850Cambridgeshire.png

 

Note the massive scatter begins from the 29th Jan which is exactly the same period when a NW,ly starts developing on the ECM. So obviously the uncertainity is how far S the trough will dig into Europe. The ECM is also keen on splitting the PV but the others models are less so.

 

So at the moment im going to sit on the fence and not make any assumptions. Part of this reason is because I have less faith in the ECM output these days.

[Ali1977]

The ensembles below say it all to me this morning.

 

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20150122/00/t850Cambridgeshire.png

 

Note the massive scatter begins from the 29th Jan which is exactly the same period when a NW,ly starts developing on the ECM. So obviously the uncertainity is how far S the trough will dig into Europe. The ECM is also keen on splitting the PV but the others models are less so.

 

So at the moment im going to sit on the fence and not make any assumptions. Part of this reason is because I have less faith in the ECM output these days.

Quite a few towards the -10c range, haven't seen that much the last few years....even if it doesn't verify.

[IDO]

Looking at the GEFS after D10 it is clear there is no apparent signal for zonal or cold. What is obvious is that the PV on all but a handful of members is very disorganised, much like November. Lots of MLBs, HLBs and slack pressure cells. I would be hesitant to draw any conclusions for after D7, a few more days to work out what is going on.

 

As for the Euro trough, a lot of the GEFS try to get something like the ECM D10 charts but it is clear the ECM outcome is the best case scenario, which is usually the case when there are heights sliding east from the US. ECM manages that journey without any short wave spoilers whilst the GEFS have varying degrees of success clearing those heights. There are a couple of GEFS similar to the ECM D10 and they are promising in FI.

 

The GEM D10 is more in line synoptically with the GEFS mean than the ECM op:

 

 

 

Looks like some interesting potential changes may be showing up. Too early to be confident that the PV is becoming less active but the signs this morning are good. The AO highlighting this:

 

 

As for whether ECM or GFS are correct re the placement of the Euro trough, somewhere in between is usually the sensible call, but probably too early to call.

 

 

[Troubleatmill]

Not a bad ECM but also a very frustrating one as it brings home what a potent northerly we could have with just a little more amplification from the Azores high....

Recm1681.gif

 

Recm2161.gif

 

Recm2401.gif

 

Extremely cold upper due north.

 

 

Yes, sadly I don't see any reason for the Azores to amplify further than is shown, it is too far south to begin with so the WAA we get from the depressions off the eastern seaboard are only enough to get it to a  MLB or slightly higher position before flattening out again shortly after the chart shown because too much energy remains above the ridge. All that can change of course, we are talking about 240hrs, so pattern watching and seeing how it moves on in the future runs   

[bluearmy]

Of nite is that the mean trough on the ens is further west day 8/9 than on the op.

Generally, the op bang in line with the ens mean upper heights dates 8/10

I think perhaps some should re read my earlier post re the strat. Given the ens support, I think ECM is closer on this as it has much better strat resolution than the gefs.

[nick sussex]

Maybe the ECM is on the right lines but a bit too far west, that eastern USA trough was expected to retrogress, maybe the ECM has taken it too far west and the GFS has it too far east and is a little too flat.

 

In terms of the MJO and whether its impacting the pattern I'd rather see that in a favourable phase, at this point we need all the help we can get!

 

Looking at the ECM ensemble mean for day ten that's really quite good given that some solutions will be flatter, its evident from that mean that theres good support for the operational run.

 

We really need the operational run to be on the money here!