Jump to content

Model Output Discussion - 16th Jan 12z onwards - Smile While You Post!


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Seeing as it's nice and early in the day, perhaps we can see the remainder of Saturday through without the hysterics expressed on the forum yesterday? Critical points of note are simple: 1. Amplifi

Well... good support in new EC Monthly by mid-Feb for GloSea5 signal re increased incidence of blocking. Indeed, by week 4, first output we've seen all winter with NO low MSLP anomalies anywhere on th

??? No warnings have been issued *because areal (and accumulation) continuity has been totally lacking*. Now we are seeing that manifesting in UKV/UKPP and other output, you can expect Ops Centre to

Posted Images

Its noticeable on the Beeb forecasts how the MetO have upgraded the snow amounts for tomorrow and Wednesday.

 

We have gone from very little and insignificant to heavy snow over higher ground in Scotland and meaningful snow further south.

 

At 6.30pm likely poor conditions due to snow on the A9 in Grampian was mentioned and what mug has to go to Inverness tomorrow :fool:  :fool:  

Andy

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

You're telling me!

 

 

The ECM shows the precip easily getting eastwards. In fact, the heaviest stuff is over the East Mids! Gawd I am not looking forward to dealing with this tomorrow.

just looking at the ecm a had a feeling the heavy fall of snow was around esst midlands! ! Places such as Notts, leic and derby could cop it big time!!
  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

I know its off topic but we need cheering up!

 

I remember early January 1985 and under a very cold easterly a low pressure dropped down from the north with a weak frontal system, Ian said

 

"Don't be fooled by that approaching warm front, the air behind that front is about as warm as a Polar Bears packed lunch"!

 

London got 10cms from that front.

 

Classic Macaskill.

 

Andy

I remember that one well, just after the early evening news. Classic Ian, fell off the settee laughing.

C

 

I feel a deleted post coming up :rofl:

  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites

Good agreement across the models for an Atlantic return of sorts.

 

The ECM is the slowest here with cold air hanging on across the south and se until Sunday, chances for any further snow on Friday have diminished, although the upstream patterns slow the exit of the  east USA low and are a bit more amplified than earlier the problem is a shortwave over western Norway which stops  more se disruption of energy.

 

The models are still reluctant to drive the Azores high into the horror position for coldies so some cause for relief, temperature wise theres not much milder air on show. Temperatures recovering closer to normal with indications it might turn somewhat colder again as the jet edges further south.

  • Like 8
Link to post
Share on other sites

So models suggesting it may just be a warmer blip at this stage nick

Yes thankfully, some weak height rises are expected to build in towards the Arctic from the Pacific side which will edge the jet further south, both the ECM and GFS agree on that.

 

Upstream the troughing over the eastern USA is expected to amplify going by comments this evening from the NCEP update.

 

The problem remains the limpet PV over ne Canada which is reluctant to move and its difficult to inject any deeper cold into the UK because of that, if that remains there then the best that's possible is that this pulls a bit further to the nw allowing some ridging to the ne.

 

Anyway at least the models haven't become completely Scroogelike and the Azores high for the timebeing although still a nuisance looks like occasionally displacing further west.

Edited by nick sussex
  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites

The latest models certainly seem to have firmed up on milder by Sunday. However, the next 48 hours could prove a real test on getting the exact forecast correct. Even now looking at the radar and pressure pattern over the West of Ireland , little eastward progression, everything going south. So in the short term evolution, still uncertainty prevails and the cold could hang on a bit longer.

C

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

The latest models certainly seem to have firmed up on milder by Sunday. However, the next 48 hours could prove a real test on getting the exact forecast correct. Even now looking at the radar and pressure pattern over the West of Ireland , little eastward progression, everything going south. So in the short term evolution, still uncertainty prevails and the cold could hang on a bit longer.C

You're quite right, snowing

lightly here all day with front stalling.

Edited by Yorlum11
  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes thankfully, some weak height rises are expected to build in towards the Arctic from the Pacific side which will edge the jet further south, both the ECM and GFS agree on that.

 

Upstream the troughing over the eastern USA is expected to amplify going by comments this evening from the NCEP update.

 

The problem remains the limpet PV over ne Canada which is reluctant to move and its difficult to inject any deeper cold into the UK because of that, if that remains there then the best that's possible is that this pulls a bit further to the nw allowing some ridging to the ne.

 

Anyway at least the models haven't become completely Scroogelike and the Azores high for the timebeing although still a nuisance looks like occasionally displacing further west.

Thank you for the explanation

Nick. Clear and great for people like me still trying to learn.

The only thing I will say is I have a feeling that the way the models have handled this cold spell. ( since sat morn 0z) that this may not be quite done yet.

I know we are an Island surrounded by warm seas and a raging jet and such but I just get the impression they may change slightly tomorrow.

Weather will do what it wants and sometimes not what the models presume.

Anyway probably just hoping too much.

Thanks again Nick and all other posters that take the time to post in a way for people like myself to learn.

  • Like 8
Link to post
Share on other sites

The latest models certainly seem to have firmed up on milder by Sunday. However, the next 48 hours could prove a real test on getting the exact forecast correct. Even now looking at the radar and pressure pattern over the West of Ireland , little eastward progression, everything going south. So in the short term evolution, still uncertainty prevails and the cold could hang on a bit longer.

C

Evening,

just wondering what your forecast portal has to aid us here maybe.

Are they showing any Atlantic systems making in roads to your area.

Link to post
Share on other sites

So models suggesting it may just be a warmer blip at this stage nick

bbc in our local area  said its a one day  affair  turning colder at the weekend  again

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites

Evening,

just wondering what your forecast portal has to aid us here maybe.

Are they showing any Atlantic systems making in roads to your area.

They have snow forecast for next weekend with sliding low from the UK moving SE. However, think that may change to a more southerly track tomorrow. No real attack from Atlantic in Central Europe, but its fairly clear that snow prediction over England is not going to be easy as presently shown now over parts of Ireland.

C

Edited by carinthian
Link to post
Share on other sites

Certainly a messy mix of winter weather tomorrow, would not be surprised to see that front fizzle out as it moves across the Uk., but Im sure it will deliver a covering in one or two places especially on high ground! Past that we see the milder and colder spells as per usual this Winter, really no sign of the infamous Easterly, but there is still plenty of time... :D

post-6830-0-46003300-1421698200_thumb.pn

post-6830-0-86638200-1421698294_thumb.pn

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

12z NMM and Euro4 are at total opposite ends of the spectrum with respect of precipitation for Tues/Weds.

 

NMM has departed from its middle ground scenario from the last day or so and races the fronts through by 0am Weds: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=3&mode=42&map=331

 

Euro4, in complete contrast, has the front stuck over the western third of the UK at 12pm Weds: http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=36&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites

Latest month ahead forecast online - Ian's thinking is that the Scandi high won't be too far off into next week, with an increasingly cold influence and some additional northern blocking coming into play during the first part of Feb...

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=monthly;sess=

Thats interesting, ive had this hunch that we might get a scandi high (and have said so) Although current models and the anomaly charts dont yet suggest a lasting strong scandi high, it has to be a serious consideration. Shades of 86 and that freeze in feb isnt something i relish, but there is a flavour of it in the air. And its not the type of weather i would like in feb :(

  • Like 9
Link to post
Share on other sites

The cpc pattern match analog for 11 days time has a rather tasty look about it. There is always hope. Here's to a winter saved by a cold February (for the south at least.)

 

500hgt_comp_sup814.gif

Edited by Catacol_Highlander
  • Like 7
Link to post
Share on other sites

I dont post on here often, but after following this thread the last few weeks Iam puzzled to see the model output struggles to come right on a cold spell, but gets it right on the mild side.

Maybe one day it will get the cold spell spot on ???

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

NOAA very happy campers  this evening in their discussions,and high confidence in both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day timeframe.

 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, 5 OUT OF 5,
DUE TO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND TOOLS, AND A PERSISTENT, HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN. 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html

 

 

That's the forecaster equivalent of a ten from len. :D

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

The extended ens still keen on sinking the trough across Europe. Any influence of the Azores ridge held sw but never too far from Iberia re ridging with the upper trough se Europe. Lowest anomoly near n uk. It's likely to be more pm than TM and decent chance that we could see secondary features running into the trough. infact as we head through week 2 perhaps nw Europe could completely under this trough with no chance of TM entry. Whilst the gefs offer decent support to this evolution the Canadian ens maintain euro high anomoly.

No sign of any scandi ridge in the next two weeks at least.

Edited by bluearmy
  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites

Evolution of fax charts for Wednesday from T+120 to T+48:

 

post-992-0-06071200-1421701975_thumb.png

 

post-992-0-84543600-1421701986_thumb.png

 

post-992-0-80984100-1421701996_thumb.png

 

post-992-0-98793200-1421702008_thumb.png

 

post-992-0-74568800-1421702059_thumb.png

 

post-992-0-91866200-1421702094_thumb.png - furthest west position of the fronts of the lot, so going down the Euro4 route, rather than the NMM

Edited by The Enforcer
  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

The cpc pattern match analog for 11 days time has a rather tasty look about it. There is always hope. Here's to a winter saved by a cold February (for the south at least.)

 

500hgt_comp_sup814.gif

Does anyone know if the Mogreps or EC32 are showing the chance of a Scandy high. None of the GEFS show that evolution.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...