Model Output Discussion - 16th Jan 12z onwards - Smile While You Post!

[warrenb]

I see in there later stages that the GFS splits the vortex again. Something to keep an eye on, as this is where I think we are going to get our cold from, there is no way the Azores ridging is going to do it this year. I think it will have to be something from above pushing the jet south.

[phil nw.]

It is noticeable that we only see approx a 2 day mild spell before the colder PM air returns next week on this run.

T144

 http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011912/gfsnh-1-144.png?12

T180

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011912/gfsnh-1-180.png?12

 

and a quick look through to the end of high resolution the jet stays south of the UK.

Still a below average outlook overall and signs through the run that the Azores high moves away from time to time. 

[Gibby]

The Azores High is a semi permanent High though, it will only move to higher latitudes if the PV is weak around Souther Greenland. The positive markers at the start of the Winter were for a SSW and with the OPI/SAI etc the signs were good. The reality is somewhat different with the heart of Winter likely to see South Westerlies for a while this weekend and next week to be replaced by a return to mobile westerlies.

Yes I appreciate its a semi permanent feature but this season it has been most stubborn in alignment throwing influence across Southern Britain in particular for much of the season while steering the Jet flow well North in a way that has kept the UK on the warm side of it until recently. The current cold spell is only due to a trough over Europe steering the Jet South to the west of the UK and towards the Med. It's the lifting of the trough down there later this week that flattens the Jet flow this coming weekend to return milder WSW winds.

[mulzy]

It's gone very quiet in here...

 

 

 

Reasonable agreement at day 6 - mild south-westerlies well and truly established through most of the country...

[bluearmy]

Low res Gfs is very plausible in terms of where the extended ens and anomolys currently sit.

[Southender]

Seems to me that there is no clear sign for any weather type to dominate for the mid-long range period. Alternating between SW/W/NW shots and generally around or a little below average at times. Especially further North.

What does interest me is that there **could** be several more slider type opportunities before the month is out, similar to what we have this week. Perhaps with a bit of luck and a disrupted PV allowing some ridging in a favourable area, one of them might do the business good and proper as we move towards and into Feb.

Failing that its a winter of average, cool, rinse, repeat. Still better than last winter though I suppose.

Edited January 19, 2015 by Shrimper

[Timmytour]

My concern is, not just the current trend away from a prolonged spell, but through the recent tricky synoptics, have accurate the Met Office appear to have been.

If the access to the models they currently enjoy continue to enable the kind of accurate info that IF has been putting up here all through the winter, then this forum could die a death!  At least we can usually always compensate for dire looking outlooks from the models by speculating that an SSW or suchlike will dramatically change things....but imagine seeing such outlooks and then having a reliably accurate Meto confirm they have a high confidence in them!!!

[craigore]

Hemispherically speaking though we still have enough to keep us interested , still potential sliders , and always good to see high pressure separating the 2 vortex sisters . As long as that's the case it always leaves the door open to southerly tracking low pressure systems . image.jpg

Also we still have low pressure in the med.. but for how long..

[Cheese Rice]

It's gone very quiet in here...

 

 

 

Reasonable agreement at day 6 - mild south-westerlies well and truly established through most of the country...

It's not established in a sense that it's the dominant weather source. It's transient.

[Ali1977]

Definitely some more opportunities for snow events towards the end of the month of some GEFS, probably just transient but you never no. Some potent Northerlies in the mix.

[PolarWarsaw]

It's gone very quiet in here...

 

 

 

Reasonable agreement at day 6 - mild south-westerlies well and truly established through most of the country...

 

Answers on a postcard (cough, it's winter - nobody cares for mild SW'erlies) 

 

Thankfully that does look like a transient feature as we look to head back to something potentially 'frosty' (at best) a few days after. Where we actually go after that is massively up for debate. We see the PV firing up over Greenland again in low res, although quite a few different runs have shown that we may eventually see a vortex split deeper into low res. 

 

Hopefully it's an interesting road or else you have to fear for the business of this thread.

[Woollymummy]

My concern is, not just the current trend away from a prolonged spell, but through the recent tricky synoptics, have accurate the Met Office appear to have been.

If the access to the models they currently enjoy continue to enable the kind of accurate info that IF has been putting up here all through the winter, then this forum could die a death!  At least we can usually always compensate for dire looking outlooks from the models by speculating that an SSW or suchlike will dramatically change things....but imagine seeing such outlooks and then having a reliably accurate Meto confirm they have a high confidence in them!!!

I would hope this forum would keep going even if the models improve!

A question about the forecast for US weather, it seems to be changing in the next week to have less extremes of temperature across the continent; will that mean a slow-down of the Jetstream? Every time they have a great big freeze we end up with westerlies and gales, so can we maybe hope that if there is a US warm-up soon, we may get a chance at some Arctic air?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

True,,,but we got to the 25th DEC 78 from here a week earlier...

That's not a million miles away from where the models are taking us next week and if we get the SSW that did seem on the cards for a few runs it's not inconceiveable that we could end up with a good start to February.

That said, it's a long shot, but I can certainly see no point in writing off any further opportunities till mid Feb like some (not you I hasten to add!) have said

EDIT...just realised I had Jan not DEC!

 

Hi Tim

That shows it in much better light.

 

Reading other posts, look this one is down to this week and then moves on...but its a mild sector and will readily cool down again.  I mentioned the other day, GFS is showing and has been showing some very interesting and potentially very impactual synoptics with a bombardment of LPs from NW/SE in FI and not just a one off.  Our way to cold IMO is to see the AZH pull back west which I think we'll see and the more I see the more I think we are in for a nasty period of weather in Feb....stormy and at times very very cold

I can't remember when it was but the forecaster was Ian MaCaskill....he said the air behind this front is cold, but the air behind this one is 'REALLY' cold.  We had trough to our east and we had some true arctic air pile down from directly NNW/N.  It dumped a good amount of snow.

A virtual pint to anyone who finds that forecast and/or synoptic set up as I think we''ll be hearing some of that IF I goes how I've been thinking all winter with PV utterly disrupted by the SSW [Mini, Minor or half].    

 

 

 

BFTP

Edited January 19, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[huntso]

Maybe its the new 85 million quids worth of computer that has helped the met office with its increased accuracy?

[Nick L]

Unfortunately, the ECM has pushed in some slightly warmer air in with tomorrow's precip. It's these slight changes that make all the difference in these situations. The window for snowfall has shrunk for those south of Birmingham.

[TEITS]

The unsurprising shift W by the Euro4.

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2015/01/19/basis12/ukuk/prty/15012112_1912.gif

 

Any snow doesn't make any further progress E than Wales/W Midlands. Not surprised as I did say I didn't expect this to get anywhere near my location.

[Matty M]

Unfortunately, the ECM has pushed in some slightly warmer air in with tomorrow's precip. It's these slight changes that make all the difference in these situations. The window for snowfall has shrunk for those south of Birmingham.

Models having all sorts of trouble dealing with this precip. A nightmare forecast.

[Nick L]

Models having all sorts of trouble dealing with this precip. A nightmare forecast.

 

You're telling me!

 

The unsurprising shift W by the Euro4.

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2015/01/19/basis12/ukuk/prty/15012112_1912.gif

 

Any snow doesn't make any further progress E than Wales/W Midlands. Not surprised as I did say I didn't expect this to get anywhere near my location.

 

The ECM shows the precip easily getting eastwards. In fact, the heaviest stuff is over the East Mids! Gawd I am not looking forward to dealing with this tomorrow.

Edited January 19, 2015 by Nick L

[stratty]

The unsurprising shift W by the Euro4.

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2015/01/19/basis12/ukuk/prty/15012112_1912.gif

 

Any snow doesn't make any further progress E than Wales/W Midlands. Not surprised as I did say I didn't expect this to get anywhere near my location.

...............except you said this earlier today  ?

 

'I do actually think we have a chance of seeing snowfall. However I missed Peterborough because otherwise I would of been accused of being biased'. 

 

Hopefully it will all change again?!?!?

[bluearmy]

You're telling me!

The ECM shows the precip easily getting eastwards. In fact, the heaviest stuff is over the East Mids! Gawd I am not looking forward to dealing with this tomorrow.

Can't remember who it was who said it but basically, the ECM is designed as a mid range modelling tool. It comes into it's own T96/T144. They said that just because it is good in that timeframe, doesn't make it the best at very short range. That's what euro 4 /nnm etc is there to do.

anyway, my advice is to say 'cold and grey with a wintry mix possible' . That covers your bases

Edited January 19, 2015 by bluearmy

[fergieweather]

Maybe its the new 85 million quids worth of computer that has helped the met office with its increased accuracy?

Nope....

Not operational until September this year. Full capacity will be attained 2017.

[Matty M]

Can't remember who it was who said it but basically, the ECM is designed as a mid range modelling tool. It comes into it's own T96/T144. They said that just because it is good in that timeframe, doesn't make it the best at very short range. That's what euro 4 /nnm etc is there to do.

anyway, my advice is to say 'cold and grey with a wintry mix possible' . That covers your bases

 or why not a 'patchy rain, sleet and snow' job! 

[TEITS]

...............except you said this earlier today  ?

 

'I do actually think we have a chance of seeing snowfall. However I missed Peterborough because otherwise I would of been accused of being biased'. 

 

Hopefully it will all change again?!?!?

Indeed but my observations were based on the 0z/06Z Euro4.

 

So far based on the output I reckon it is harder to figure out how far E the precipitation will get rather than what will fall! The Euro4 certainly differs from the GFS/GEM but historically speaking I find these sliders rarely make it to my location as I have said for many days now.

[Stu_London]

 

 

 

I can't remember when it was but the forecaster was Ian MaCaskill....he said the air behind this front is cold, but the air behind this one is 'REALLY' cold.  We had trough to our east and we had some true arctic air pile down from directly NNW/N.  It dumped a good amount of snow.

A virtual pint to anyone who finds that forecast and/or synoptic set up as I think we''ll be hearing some of that IF I goes how I've been thinking all winter with PV utterly disrupted by the SSW [Mini, Minor or half].    

 

December 7th 1990, chap. Can't find it on you tube, but the archive charts show it nicely

 

BFTP

[Stuie]

You're telling me!

 

 

The ECM shows the precip easily getting eastwards. In fact, the heaviest stuff is over the East Mids! Gawd I am not looking forward to dealing with this tomorrow.

 

Some humor! Think we needed that.

 

The ECM does still have some decent cold air to the East, including TEITS. Marginal south from there deffo.Can`t see temps earlier than this but must be similar?

Edited January 19, 2015 by StuieW