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Model Output Discussion - 16th Jan 12z onwards - Smile While You Post!

Paul

By Paul
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Bradowl Community Regular

Bradowl

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Frost Sun
  • Location: Rotherham
Posted

What is an undercut?

 

 

It's a very bad haircut from the 90's

(Sorry couldn't resist)

 

Silly old me.  :doh:

I've always thought it was fronts pushing in from west with cold winds off continent undercutting and helping rain turn to snow.  :D

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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted

Good post SK & spot on.....

 

For London I would put it in the snow zone but not mega amounts-

 

we are of course now talking about margins of 50 miles east or west which could change at T6- so we will see how things go in the next 24 - 48 hours.

 

Its always tense running the gauntlet of no snow very cold to heavy rain & 3c with somewhere in the middle getting a pasting!

S

midlands is looking like a real hot spot for snow steve!! Just hope the charts stay this way now!!
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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

Hi Nick, is this not the Atlantic punching through at T168 on the ECM. Please don't take this as a dig I'm just curious. :)

 

attachicon.gifECM1-168.GIF

Lol! that's okay, well its a skirmish in terms of the Atlantic! It doesn't really get into most of Europe. But I agree it delivers a punch but its a pretty weak blow.

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Snowy L Maestro

Snowy L

Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
Posted

Excellent ECM for snow potential on Tuesday/Wednesday. Met Office continue to ignore...

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shotski Seasoned

shotski

Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
Posted

Hi Nick, is this not the Atlantic punching through at T168 on the ECM. Please don't take this as a dig I'm just curious. :)

 

attachicon.gifECM1-168.GIF

No this is a great chart IMO, waa heading towards Scandinavia and if ECM went to day 12 you would see the results. Shame it's out in FI.

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Cheese Rice Community Regular

Cheese Rice

Posted
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

Can someone pls post some charts backing up this ECM snow fest which is none existent?

The charts DO NOT show what the majority of posters are suggesting.

Edited by Cheese Rice
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Snowy L Maestro

Snowy L

Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
Posted (edited)

Can someone pls post some charts backing up this ECM snow fest which is none existent?

The charts DO NOT show what the majority of posters are suggesting.

 

Do you really think that none of Scotland, England and Wales will see snow on Tuesday and Wednesday, because that is what the lack of met office warnings is suggesting. Personally I disagree with some suggesting snow for southeast England/midlands, but snow for Scotland and inland Northern England, North Midlands and North Wales is backed even by the GFS which has a much stronger warm sector.

 

 

 

post-20773-0-72883900-1421609268_thumb.p

Edited by Snowy L
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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

Can someone pls post some charts backing up this ECM snow fest which is none existent?

The charts DO NOT show what the majority of posters are suggesting.

Yes the week ahead on BBC all the precipitation was rain with maybe some sleety stuff. Though they were suggesting a degree of uncertainty. Then they were talking about the Atlantic in week 2. I suspect the ECM after D8 is an outlier as it sends a deep cold trough into N America which has little support.

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Paul_1978 Accomplished

Paul_1978

Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
Posted

Excellent ECM for snow potential on Tuesday/Wednesday. Met Office continue to ignore...

Because it ain't gonna happen with any significance.
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frosty ground Veteran

frosty ground

Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
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Posted

Can someone pls post some charts backing up this ECM snow fest which is none existent?

The charts DO NOT show what the majority of posters are suggesting.

wouldn't it be easier for you to post the chart you think people are talking about and say why you don't believe it?
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syncmaster Rookie

syncmaster

Posted
  • Location: Burton upon Stather North Lincs 77 mts Asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold blasts, snowy Summer hot sultry thunderstorms
  • Location: Burton upon Stather North Lincs 77 mts Asl
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Posted

Can someone pls post some charts backing up this ECM snow fest which is none existent?

The charts DO NOT show what the majority of posters are suggesting.

Would it be possible for you to post charts to show the members what you are seeing !! 

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snowking Accomplished

snowking

Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Popular Post
Posted

Can someone pls post some charts backing up this ECM snow fest which is none existent?

The charts DO NOT show what the majority of posters are suggesting.

Unfortunately if anyone has a subscription which gives them access to this kind of ECM data it is licenced on a strictly no-republish basis.

I believe there are some available on Wunderground somewhere if anybody wants to try and post images from there, but I am just reporting on what is visible from WxBell charts - as noted, caution due with the 10:1 liquid equivalent ratio used which is more suited to US snowfalls, but still scope for a decent covering in the zones previously outlined for the 24 hours 0000 Weds - 0000 Thurs

SK

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

Yes the week ahead on BBC all the precipitation was rain with maybe some sleety stuff. Though they were suggesting a degree of uncertainty. Then they were talking about the Atlantic in week 2. I suspect the ECM after D8 is an outlier as it sends a deep cold trough into N America which has little support.

The thing is IDO NCEP expect troughing to become established over the eastern USA, its whether that becomes more amplified to help sharpen up any troughing to the west of the UK.

 

Below is the latest updated NCEP state forecast for New York:

 

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

LONG RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A LARGE

SCALE RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST COAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK

THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN OPENS UP THE

EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY TO COLD AIR INTRUSIONS WITH A GENERAL

LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.

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Catacol Maestro

Catacol

Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
Posted

Have you sen the latest MJO forecast Tamara? - more than a hint of phase 6 return. :)

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

 

But UKMet and JMA have it heading towards phase 1...

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MKN Community Regular

MKN

Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
Posted

Do you really think that none of Scotland, England and Wales will see snow on Tuesday and Wednesday, because that is what the lack of met office warnings is suggesting. Personally I disagree with some suggesting snow for southeast England/midlands, but snow for Scotland and inland Northern England, North Midlands and North Wales is backed even by the GFS which has a much stronger warm sector.

 

 

 

attachicon.gifGFS snow.png

I agree with the original post. 10cms when were dealing with a decaying front which will amount to almost nothing for most down the spine of the country on tuesday followed by the second chance only clipping wales and the south west. Just cant see any disruptive snow for the majority

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Snow Grain Contributor

Snow Grain

Posted
  • Location: Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Mild winters, wet & windy summers
  • Location: Hampshire
Posted

I can't see a chart that is offering anything other than marginal events. This is only a rather cold spell with rain, sleet and snow, the snow mainly over high ground up north. Temps on the rise during the week.

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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
Posted

But UKMet and JMA have it heading towards phase 1...

Yes, but they are shorter term forecasts

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i luv snow Enthusiast

i luv snow

Posted
  • Location: Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Snow!
  • Location: Sydney, Australia
Posted

I can't see a chart that is offering anything other than marginal events. This is only a rather cold spell with rain, sleet and snow, the snow mainly over high ground up north. Temps on the rise during the week.

 

It's been snowing to low levels across NW (inc. Manchester), the north, Scotland, NI and Wales - no elevation needed. So that isn't exactly true :)

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SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
Posted (edited)

Can someone pls post some charts backing up this ECM snow fest which is none existent?

The charts DO NOT show what the majority of posters are suggesting.

 

12 hour RAW ppn for the south midlands into the Green is @ 10mm ratio..

just for those 6 hours...

http://en.vedur.is/photos/atlant_evr_urkomuspa/150118_1200_66.png 10 mm

http://en.vedur.is/photos/atlant_evr_urkomuspa/150118_1200_72.png   4mm

 

A tadge of elevation would be good- Chilters etc

Edited by Steve Murr
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Liam J Experienced

Liam J

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
Posted

I wouldn't get too excited over the ECM for snow potential, make of it what you will! :)

 

Precipitation rate.

 

post-9615-0-16486500-1421610440_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-21003300-1421610449_thumb.pn

 

Snowfall

 

post-9615-0-36227600-1421610468_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-98330300-1421610473_thumb.pn

 

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Catacol Maestro

Catacol

Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
Posted

Anyone know why the MJO composite page over on americanwx has no entries for January (apart from the Nino years at the top of the page??) Every other month is there!

 

Is there a better source for MJO composites that I can bookmark?

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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
Posted

Anyone know why the MJO composite page over on americanwx has no entries for January (apart from the Nino years at the top of the page??) Every other month is there!

 

Is there a better source for MJO composites that I can bookmark?

The first Dec batch are actually the January composites

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Catacol Maestro

Catacol

Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
Posted

Yes, but they are shorter term forecasts

 

True - but both JMA and Glosea look like a tricky/long path back to 6/7/8 from where they put it.

 

Chio - what's the best page out there for MJO composites? A while back I had a good bookmark that allowed all kinds of different composite hemispheric maps to be drawn up, but I rebuilt my machine and carelessly lost the bookmark. Cant find it on the net now - google lets me down for once!

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Mark Neal. Seasoned

Mark Neal.

Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
Posted

So after all the hype and slider excitement, were in for a good old big fat letdown then.

The colder conditions have only just set in.. We are still 1-3 days away from these sliders still, possible corrections still ocurring. Hold judgement. 

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Catacol Maestro

Catacol

Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
Posted (edited)

The first Dec batch are actually the January composites

Ah - of course - I see that now. 2 Dec entries. Doh.... would have thought I would spot that. :-)

 

EDIT: as should the dullards over at americanwx....

Edited by Catacol_Highlander
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