Model Output Discussion - 16th Jan 12z onwards - Smile While You Post!

[Jason M]

Looking at the GEFS at T120 no real changes from this morning's runs with about 45% going with "the slider part 2". The rest in line with the op and control, with the Azores pushing through the trough. I said 2-3 days till this is resolved so time for the ensembles to tip one way or another. I suppose with such an even split we have to accept the hi-res will flip flop.

 

Some of the members going with the trough are very good, some so so:

 

gens-16-1-120.png gens-12-1-120.png gens-11-1-120.png

 

gens-8-1-120.png gens-5-1-120.png gens-4-1-120.png

 

gens-4-1-120.png

 

You can see how the hi-res are flip flopping from coldest to mildest runs 06z-12z:

 

graphe6_0000_306_141___Londres (5).gif graphe3_1000_306_141___Londres (10).gif

 

More runs needed.

 

Trouble is IDO that it will make very little difference anyway. Those charts are not a cold weather profile for NW Europe. I've been through them and the depth of cold is simply not there. Best we can achieve from that kind of set up is a cold, damp, cloudy affair. Cold enough to be unpleasant and ensure everyone has the heating on 24/7, but of zero use if you want snow. If we could get a proper cut off Scandi high, totally different ball game. Also noted today a further subtle eroding of the upper air profile through this week.

 

Before anyone gets all excited I am not saying that there are no prospects going forward. Indeed far from it  . We need to see an arctic plunge into Europe (and some ensembles do hint at that). Then 'sliders', easterlies etc become more interesting! 

 

 

edit - A set up like this has much more promise http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=1&ech=336&mode=0&carte=0   (though it looks like nothing comes of it anyway  )

Edited January 18, 2015 by Jason M

[chionomaniac]

Would it be possible for anyone to give a brief explanation of the MJO, the different phases and what each phase means to weather patterns (I:e our locale if possible)

Not sure if this is easily explainable?

Thanks in advance

Put simply there are a number of thunderstorms (or tropical convection) in the tropics at any one time. These can gather up and certain regions can have increased tropical convection at any one time. These 'pulses' of tropical convection tend to pulse from west to east (mainly starting in the Indian Ocean and ending in the east Pacific Ocean) and depending on the size and exact position and wind anomalies can be tracked and categorised into phases.

 

These are the phases (1-8 ) of the MJO and are important because it has been shown that each phase correlates well with a certain wavelength pattern across the hemispheres, depending on the time of year.

Edited January 18, 2015 by chionomaniac
Corrected fundamental longitudinal error!

[Cloud 10]

New fax charts for Wednesday show front/fronts stalling across the middle of the UK...

 

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015011812/ECU1-72.GIF?18-0

 

Im going to allow one minor celebration if the ECM verifies

 

Exit point of slider IOW

 

SNOW for most with minimal mixing

 

   NB IOW was the track

S

Edited January 18, 2015 by Steve Murr

[Snowman.]

The push west.

 

Yesterday's 12z Today's

[bluearmy]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015011812/ECU1-72.GIF?18-0

 

Im going to allow one minor celebration if the ECM verifies

 

Exit point of slider IOW

 

SNOW for most with minimal mixing

 

UK MAP.png   NB IOW was the track

S

Good call!

[WINTRY WALES]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015011812/ECU1-72.GIF?18-0

Im going to allow one minor celebration if the ECM verifies

Exit point of slider IOW

SNOW for most with minimal mixing

UK MAP.png NB IOW was the track

S

Excellent early prediction from a few days back there Steve....even if I'm only about 30 miles outside the God damn blue snow zone 😡 Edited January 18, 2015 by WINTRY WALES

[I remember Atlantic 252]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015011812/ECU1-72.GIF?18-0

 

Im going to allow one minor celebration if the ECM verifies

 

Exit point of slider IOW

 

SNOW for most with minimal mixing

 

UK MAP.png   NB IOW was the track

S

 

So hope you're right SM, I'm in the north western red circle

[phil nw.]

Just a reminder folks moans and groans or chat type comments to the other thread please-over here

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81281-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-autumnwinter-201415/

 

a few have already been moved there.

 Thanks all.

[Matty23]

When is steve murr post for Tues or wed

[isleofwightsnowgal]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015011812/ECU1-72.GIF?18-0

Sorry to ask in this thread but does this mean the Isle of wight cud get snow? Sorry just not sure whether the slider is gud for us or not?

Thanks

 

Im going to allow one minor celebration if the ECM verifies

 

Exit point of slider IOW

 

SNOW for most with minimal mixing

 

UK MAP.png   NB IOW was the track

S

[swfc]

Poor ecm imo 144 hrs looks shocking tbh.Granted its at a distance but picks up and carries on from the 12z gfs.

[PolarWarsaw]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015011812/ECU1-72.GIF?18-0

 

Im going to allow one minor celebration if the ECM verifies

 

Exit point of slider IOW

 

SNOW for most with minimal mixing

 

UK MAP.png   NB IOW was the track

S

 

What sort of accumulations are you thinking in different zones Steve?

[SMU]

No point giving predictions for specific areas at the moments but id imagine 10-15 cm in the best spots along that slider...

 

 

ECM 144-168 not quite perfect but very small corrections would result in a significantly improved pattern..

 

S

[shaky]

Its very similar to the ooz chart tthis morning the ecm!!! Few tweaks here and there and we get a proper undercut! !

[snowy weather]

Its very similar to the ooz chart tthis morning the ecm!!! Few tweaks here and there and we get a proper undercut! !

 

What is an undercut?

[snowking]

A rather snowy picture painted by the 12z ECM overnight Tue in to Weds and almost identical to the updated FAX prognosis with that triple point down to the West of London.

Sweet spots (anything up to 10cm showing though with caveat of optimistic 10:1 ratio) - N Hamps, Berks, Bucks, E Oxf, Northants, in to Leices/Notts

It should be noted away from that triple point the precipitation shown isn't especially heavy but a few cms shown either side of those zones. The precipitation never quite reaches the far east of EA or the SE

As ever caution noted of analysis of a single det. run

SK

Edited January 18, 2015 by snowking

[Long haul to mild]

A rather snowy picture painted by the 12z ECM overnight Tue in to Weds and almost identical to the updated FAX prognosis with that triple point down to the West of London.

Sweet spots (anything up to 10cm showing though with caveat of optimistic 10:1 ratio) - N Hamps, Berks, Bucks, E Oxf, Northants, in to Leices/Notts

It should be noted away from that triple point the precipitation shown isn't especially heavy but a few cms shown either side of those zones. The precipitation never quite reaches the far east of EA or the SE

As ever caution noted of analysis of a single det. run

SK

 

Haha, that would be about right; our snow shield is in full effect and has been for almost two years now! Sliders rarely deliver much here but, like you say it's only one run and much can change.

 

Bringing myself back from IMBYland, ECM looks quite progressive at T168 tonight and sinks those heights to the NE well into Russia. Not a trend we particularly want to see, but given the uncertainties over the next few days, it's pretty much FI.

 

[Penrith Snow]

A rather snowy picture painted by the 12z ECM overnight Tue in to Weds and almost identical to the updated FAX prognosis with that triple point down to the West of London.

Sweet spots (anything up to 10cm showing though with caveat of optimistic 10:1 ratio) - N Hamps, Berks, Bucks, E Oxf, Northants, in to Leices/Notts

It should be noted away from that triple point the precipitation shown isn't especially heavy but a few cms shown either side of those zones. The precipitation never quite reaches the far east of EA or the SE

As ever caution noted of analysis of a single det. run

SK

Yet the MetO still don't expect anything significant on all their latest broadcast, however, when I saw the fax I thought that triple point must surely bring snow.

Good luck if you are in the zone that could benefit.

Andy

[nick sussex]

If the westwards corrections continue then the ECM would deliver even more interest. The Atlantic really never breaks through so I think we're now waiting to see which way that goes.

 

I'm not sure we'll see a long protracted battle, the T216 and T240hrs are not without interest the former throws a ridge north ahead of the low and the latter those lows look like hitting a brick wall.

[blizzard81]

I think the ecm 12z is quite a big improvement on the 00z run in the later stages because the atlantic does not crash through like it did on the 00z.

Edit - Nick beat me to it lol!

The latter stages of the ecm really does remind me of some of the 80's winter's when fronts would sometimes make it to the east coast only for them to do an about turn and get pushed back west again due to pressure from the beast!

Edited January 18, 2015 by blizzard81

[Lincstim]

What is an undercut?

It's a very bad haircut from the 90's

(Sorry couldn't resist)

[SMU]

A rather snowy picture painted by the 12z ECM overnight Tue in to Weds and almost identical to the updated FAX prognosis with that triple point down to the West of London.

Sweet spots (anything up to 10cm showing though with caveat of optimistic 10:1 ratio) - N Hamps, Berks, Bucks, E Oxf, Northants, in to Leices/Notts

It should be noted away from that triple point the precipitation shown isn't especially heavy but a few cms shown either side of those zones. The precipitation never quite reaches the far east of EA or the SE

As ever caution noted of analysis of a single det. run

SK

 

Good post SK & spot on.....

 

For London I would put it in the snow zone but not mega amounts-

 

we are of course now talking about margins of 50 miles east or west which could change at T6- so we will see how things go in the next 24 - 48 hours.

 

Its always tense running the gauntlet of no snow very cold to heavy rain & 3c with somewhere in the middle getting a pasting!

S

 

[Cheese Rice]

No point giving predictions for specific areas at the moments but id imagine 10-15 cm in the best spots along that slider...

ECM 144-168 not quite perfect but very small corrections would result in a significantly improved pattern..

S

Is this in regard to Tuesday-Thursday?

If so the precipitation is mostly light and patchy.

The ECM PPN type charts are indicative of a mixture of rain, sleet and wet snow.

The intensity of said precipitation is not conclusive for lying snow in the south, mostly transient in nature.

Edited January 18, 2015 by Cheese Rice

[Carlrg]

If the westwards corrections continue then the ECM would deliver even more interest. The Atlantic really never breaks through so I think we're now waiting to see which way that goes.

 

I'm not sure we'll see a long protracted battle, the T216 and T240hrs are not without interest the former throws a ridge north ahead of the low and the latter those lows look like hitting a brick wall.

Hi Nick, is this not the Atlantic punching through at T168 on the ECM. Please don't take this as a dig I'm just curious.