Model Output Discussion - 16th Jan 12z onwards - Smile While You Post!

[Snowy L]

Gone back to the 2 sliders it was showing yesterday. Plus a much betetr looking scandi hifh UKMO and GFS vs ECM now

[Great Plum]

Easterly anybody?

Huge differences on this run - no doubt it will change again!

[weather eater]

120hrs about as far as I want to go as so many small corrections early on make a nonsense of looking further. On saying that I feel that while it's more of a mixed bag in the short term, thereafter there are positive signs of the possibility of the PV lifting away from Greenland giving a better chance of blocking and a subsequent easterly. A blimey it's hard to type with the head of a large dog on your shoulder.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

12z reverts back to what it was showing 24 hours ago!! Upgrades again!!

 

That's the spirit shaky, can always rely on you, Frosty and Steve Murr to lighten the thread

[Winter Cold]

GFS is definately better yes, nice to see. However, it is different to UKMO at T120. I dont like the look of this as much:

 

[Met4Cast]

UKMO at 120 showing a much flatter high

 

 

UKMO with the GME.

[Mucka]

UKMO 120h

 

 

Shallower trough with low on more SE trajectory than S.

Edited January 16, 2015 by Mucka

[shaky]

Well nobody look at the ukmo please!! Otherwise your gona wack your head against a wall!

[SMU]

Afternoon All-

 

Well the 12z GFS was it was great news until the UKMO 120 landed on the desk....

 

I think I will just wait until the 12z tomorrow & keep out of here until then...

 

Great GFS. Poor UKMO... - 120 with zero sliding.

 

S

[weather eater]

Potential at 132..

 

Potential.png

 

But given how different the 12z is to the 06z by just 92hrs on a hemispherical level, you may as well be hanging teabags outside to predict the weather. Never known a year for the models to be such utter tripe at any type of predicting.

 

GFS Upgrade can go in the bin as far as I'm concerned, models are useless.

Models are likely to stay useless in regards our tiny plot for many years to come, its like doing any sum, if the start numbers keep changing you will get different answers every time and can somebody tell my dog I don't want sexy time with him.

[Cheshire Freeze]

UKMO 120h

Shallower trough with low on more SE trajectory than S.

The modelling is deteriorating to a point where the shown synoptic aren't too different to what we've seen all winter long. Especially visible on the UKMO 120 chart!

Where is a major pattern change coming from?

Edited January 16, 2015 by CreweCold

[mountain shadow]

A ever in these scenarios, major model divergence at as little as T+72. No point looking any further than that.

[bluearmy]

Ukmo is Interesting on the uk view

T96 has the occlusion lying through a little low w Wales and then Devon. S draw ahead should be snow to its east.

The T120 has the wnw flow behind the front with thicknesses below 528 in the south so it's feasible that this run could be a snow event w to e ?

I'm sure Steve can expand on this - perhaps not as poor as it first looks.

[shaky]

Dont know what to make of the ukmo!! Will there be snow on those charts! ! Think its to far east!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Ukmo is Interesting on the uk view

T96 has the occlusion lying through a little low w Wales and then Devon. S draw ahead should be snow to its east.

The T120 has the wnw flow behind the front with thicknesses below 528 in the south so it's feasible that this run could be a snow event w to e ?

I'm sure Steve can expand on this - perhaps not as poor as it first looks.

I did wonder whether uppers following would be conducive to snowfall. I suspect given the maritime influence and increased dew points it may be too marginal.

[Iceaxecrampon]

12Z coming out.

 

Slider Low back in the frame at T+108

 

 

Here we go again.....

 

Ian

 

 

[Man With Beard]

And now for solution number 101 from UKMO - a slider into the North Sea at T144! Just how many ways can you get a low pressure across the UK? Might be good for an easterly a few days after though.

All models at 6s and 7s ATM.

[MR EXTREMES]

120hrs about as far as I want to go as so many small corrections early on make a nonsense of looking further. On saying that I feel that while it's more of a mixed bag in the short term, thereafter there are positive signs of the possibility of the PV lifting away from Greenland giving a better chance of blocking and a subsequent easterly. A blimey it's hard to type with the head of a large dog on your shoulder.

I'm sure your dog has a better idea of what the models will do than any of us lol he's clearly got an eye for wintry prospects.

Anyway as you can see better placement of the Scandinavia heights and more better heights to our west we have mid latitude block to our west and high latitude block into Scandinavia ok not a strong block to our northeast but enough to disrupt any progress East so south southeast or South west take your pick for the slider.

Slack flow cold embedded air not exceptional for the southern parts but could potentially move on to better in up and coming runs.

And the gfs has proved that it's struggling and toying with ideas so still cold with snow possible across many parts of the uk.

I'm happy with the gfs run and some are correct on here it is a upgrade from the two earlier runs the roller coaster continues were now doing a loop the loop lol

[SMU]

HI BA

 

The UKMO track has gone from ( 00z ) - Ireland > Midlands > IOW to Ireland > North Sea & Debilt all in 1 run.

 

Id hazard a guess thats a 500 mile swing east at 120.

 

That is stunning inconsistency from the model I would put my savings on being the least volatile, also right at the point where the GFS comes into line with the 00z UKMO solution.

 

So frustrating, but at the same time it keeps us on our toes...

 

At this very point Shannon Entropy very high at the T96 Marker....

 

S

[Winter Cold]

Ukmo is Interesting on the uk view

T96 has the occlusion lying through a little low w Wales and then Devon. S draw ahead should be snow to its east.

The T120 has the wnw flow behind the front with thicknesses below 528 in the south so it's feasible that this run could be a snow event w to e ?

I'm sure Steve can expand on this - perhaps not as poor as it first looks.

 

Hi BA

 

Just shows how much I still have to learn. I looked at it and thought 'oh dear' looked like it was coming more through the UK rather than sliding, but after your review, it sounds better than I thought.

 

GFS is decent tonight, shows most of the UK still very cold until Friday at least. As most say though, due to the differences early on, the runs are probably not worth paying attention to after T120.

[frosty ground]

Isn't the 144 met chart setting up another slider?

[Mucka]

The modelling is deteriorating to a point where the shown synoptic aren't too different to what we've seen all winter long. Especially visible on the UKMO 120 chart!

Where is a major pattern change coming from?

 

Except for the embedded cold air.

To be honest I think we are hitting the lowest point of the output today and things will begin to improve again in future runs.

I could be wrong of course but I'm still hopeful the first low will slide and give snow for many and we will get get a second slider perhaps further East so not as cold but another Scandi ridge forming and undercut from there = Easterly. Obviously the way forward and the models will get there eventually. 

 

I'm with Steve TBH, there is almost no point in trying to analyse any op run or even the ensembles to determine what will happen but he like the rest of us will be watching the ECM and if it is kind posting excitedly about it. 

[Snowman.]

So we now have another solution.

 

[Hotspur62]

Yesterday it was GFS that looked poor on 12z and UKMO looked better,now the other way round!!As others have said lets see what happens on weekend first as think NW areas of Britain will get some lovely wintery scenes as well as others with elevation in SW,Wales and Cen/South England with elevation from fronts moving across tonight/tomorrow. Would love that 25% chance of snow to verify on Sunday as as it stands this is about the only corner of Britain that hasn't seen snow for 22 months.

[weather eater]

The 12z GFS looks poor with a large mild sector on the western edge...... If you think the GFS is good because of a weak easterly that will only bring low cloud and snizzle then fine.... otherwise why is it great

Because if you look at its earlier frames you can see the possibility for the synoptic pattern to develop in a much better way. Do not look at model runs in a literal fashion as they will change increasingly post  zero  hour the 18z will be different and the 00z and so on, models are displaying evolution not creation.