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Model Output Discussion - 16th Jan 12z onwards - Smile While You Post!

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But it's NEXT THURSDAY... 6 days away? Bookmark this post, copy it, whatever, and next Thursday look back on it - what happens in reality will be completely different to both of those scenarios

Well clearly the reality won't be identical to either chart, the important fact is one shows a Westerly and one an Easterly and its odds on the West wins.

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In the shorter term Euro 4 updated. Midlands and then pushing SE in the morning, Sleet-Snow. Also to the NW and Scotland/Ireland still.

attachicon.gifimage.jpg attachicon.gifimage.jpg

This is such a deverse situation . Thank you to all for the contributions to this amazing thread it truly is at the moment for me and surely others a roller coaster of a ride . To all mod thread posters . Thankyou Edited by Mark wheeler

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Well yet another tease that had even more of us getting hopes up. It's certainly a pattern, that we read too much into too little evidence. It's also a pattern, since November, that is in fact predictable if you look over what has been the outcome of the forecasts since early november (and otherwise I would assume). The outcomes have shown us consistency in enough of the forecasts. We need to follow those. There will always be big surprises now and then in the weather, but overall, not.

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A pretty shocking day in terms of model instability (not snow potential, which actually I don't think has altered much) - but hang on, is it really that shocking? The last minute breakdown of an easterly is at least an annual occurrence, isn't it?

The rule of thumb is this - when models predict a quick shift from westerlies to easterlies, don't bank on it until the easterly is at T72. There's so much that can go wrong with getting that low to sink into Europe - not so much getting it into Europe as getting the track and intensity nailed. The attempt in December sank the low too quickly - current forecasts for this attempt don't sink the low fast enough.

But have the models really got a handle on it yet? Must say I was surprised to see northerly corrections today as I usually expect southerly corrections. I thought westerlies might come back quickly that way, not the current way! Perhaps I should expect a slight backtrack tomorrow, the shift just seems too drastic. I'm not writing anything in or out just yet.

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On a more positive note, the gfs 18z ensembles trend cold towards the end.

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Forgive my ignorance, but surely the NAO and AO forecasts are exactly that ? - forecasts based on the latest model outputs. As the models are flip flopping from one scenario to the next, as it is they reflect only the model output at the current time and a useless indicator of the weather?

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Indeed. With 12z EC DET looking a mild outlier against EPS, any upturn in temperatures may prove far less progressive than suggested by some runs. With upstream developments off the Carolina coast dictating the ongoing model see-saw, great caution urged over expressing any real confidence on how things unfold early-mid next week. UKMO, meanwhile, note current MJO Phase 6 anticipated to hold and this favouring -ve NAO further down the line. But it looks a return (of uncertain evolution/timing), one way or another, to a mobile westerly pattern; likely once again punctuated by phases of deep cyclonicity but with ongoing chances of cold/snowier episodes alongside the wind and rain.

Many thanks for that update Ian, very much appreciated. It's certainly going to be a busy week or so for the meto guys, that's for sure.

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not according to the latest FAX. the first occlusion clears east with sub 528 dam air behind as the raw ukmo showed. the parent low is beginning to head se as per the 12z model and in the west atlantic, the next system looks to be struggling to make n latitudinal progress.

 

Deleted - replied to wrong post in error

 

 

 

 

 

.

Edited by Tamara

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Indeed. With 12z EC DET looking a mild outlier against EPS, any upturn in temperatures may prove far less progressive than suggested by some runs. With upstream developments off the Carolina coast dictating the ongoing model see-saw, great caution urged over expressing any real confidence on how things unfold early-mid next week. UKMO, meanwhile, note current MJO Phase 6 anticipated to hold and this favouring -ve NAO further down the line. But it looks a return (of uncertain evolution/timing), one way or another, to a mobile westerly pattern; likely once again punctuated by phases of deep cyclonicity but with ongoing chances of cold/snowier episodes alongside the wind and rain.

So for us Newbies this means ? ..... Dead end on this one .

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where did you find this photo?! its my primary school in kingston that i went to late 80's early 90's!  :rofl:

Too many one liners.

 

Any chance of some quality over quantity postings in here please or I might ask Paul to shut the thread for a wee while, a bit drastic but you never know it might help.  :bomb:  How was school today kids.  :cray:

 

children-at-play-007.jpg

 

Please use the report function, think before you post and also you have the option to use PM for contacting an individual over his or her posts, rather than clutter up the thread with non related discussion.  :good:

 

Thanks

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Indeed. With 12z EC DET looking a mild outlier against EPS, any upturn in temperatures may prove far less progressive than suggested by some runs. With upstream developments off the Carolina coast dictating the ongoing model see-saw, great caution urged over expressing any real confidence on how things unfold early-mid next week. UKMO, meanwhile, note current MJO Phase 6 anticipated to hold and this favouring -ve NAO further down the line. But it looks a return (of uncertain evolution/timing), one way or another, to a mobile westerly pattern; likely once again punctuated by phases of deep cyclonicity but with ongoing chances of cold/snowier episodes alongside the wind and rain.

good update fergie! ! Do you think we will ses westward shift in the models this morning! Also nmm suggesting a pretty potent line of snow crossing the midlands and south could give a covering across these areas like you suggest!

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So for us Newbies this means ? ..... Dead end on this one .

 

I think Ian is saying that the models are bringing milder air in sooner than what's currently expected 

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I think Ian is saying that the models are bringing milder air in sooner than what's currently expected 

Oh well , crack on Spring time then , another bleak winter we are getting here then, also nice to see the nights drawing out .

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Oh well , crack on Spring time then , another bleak winter we are getting here then, also nice to see the nights drawing out .

Might be reading this wrong, but i came across as ian saying models could well be being overly progressive, but they do expect a return to Westerly or a more mobile airflow after next week/weekend or thereafter.. Not that negative post. Glimmer of positivity after what has been rather negative day in here. 

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So for us Newbies this means ? ..... Dead end on this one .

i think hes saying todays runs may be off the mark regarding early to mid next week due to the volatility of the weather over the pond in the usa.

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I think Ian is saying that the models are bringing milder air in sooner than what's currently expected

I think Ian is actually saying the previous gfs run was a mild outlier..he also implies caution on potential longevity of the cold spell after mid week..

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--

Edited by kumquat

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I think Ian is actually saying the previous gfs run was a mild outlier..he also implies caution on potential longevity of the cold spell after mid week..

 

Wrong.

 

"12z EC DET" refers to the ECM Op, EPS is the ECM ensembles. He then goes onto say "any upturn in temperatures may prove far less progressive than suggested by some runs" 

Ian is saying that the models are probably being overally progressive with shifting the cold away from the UK BUT a return to mobility is likely to happen one way or another, just perhaps not as quickly as progged in todays outputs.

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--

Now this is the best post of all time , thank you for telling us that , so we are going to be in a Snow geddon ..

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Wrong.

 

"12z EC DET" refers to the ECM Op, EPS is the ECM ensembles. He then goes onto say "any upturn in temperatures may prove far less progressive than suggested by some runs" 

Ian is saying that the models are probably being overally progressive with shifting the cold away from the UK BUT a return to mobility is likely to happen one way or another, just perhaps not as quickly as progged in todays outputs.

"great caution urged over expressing any real confidence on how things unfold early-mid next week."

Right..

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I know what the 12z EC DET is and also the EPS..i suggest you re-read what i have written with regards to uncertainty mid week..

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Now this is the best post of all time , thank you for telling us that , so we are going to be in a Snow geddon ..

I deleted my post out of respect for the person I quoted who had previously deleted their post. (You made up the Snow geddon bit (SIC))

By the way, I like your forum name which reminds me of the late "John Holt" - "Mr Bojangles"

Back on a model track and we eagerly await the ppn in the Bristol part of the world with snow reported in

Pembrokeshire and lightning indicating some build of potential energy along potent troughs coming towards

the Bristol channel out of the Irish Sea.

Not a lot expected but we hang on to what we can get in this part of the world:

 

18Z Euro4:

 

15011706_1618.gif

Edited by kumquat

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GFS 00z rolling and while "better" is a subjective term, it is better than last nights horror show GFS with the low sinking faster,

 

gfsnh-0-102.png?0gfs-2-108.png?0

 

Let's see where it goes from here.

 

Edit.

 

Well it is still a fairly quick transition to a more Westerly regime but still cold at the surface for longer than the 18z with snow modelled for most and the Russian high is further West so at least some positives.

 

gfsnh-0-144.png?0

 

UKMO looks not too bad at T72 but the low doesn't want to disrupt South so it has hardly moved by T96

 

UN72-21.GIF?17-05UN96-21.GIF?17-05

 

And in the end splits energy NE and S. T72 to T96 looks dubious to me though.

 

UN120-21.GIF?17-05

Edited by Mucka

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