Model Output Discussion - 16th Jan 12z onwards - Smile While You Post!

[Snowy L]

Look to the bottom left on that chart.Very slight accumilations tbh

 

Pretty sure they haven't taken into account the 1mm of rain = 1cm of snow rule. There's no way they would cap the scale at 20cm.

 

Bluearmy, Ian F himself said Scotland would get disruptive snowfall and mid-Wales northwards had a good shot of seeing some snow. I don't see how you can possibly put Northern ireland in a warning and not Scotland, which is what UKMO have done

Edited January 18, 2015 by Snowy L

[shaky]

And so it begins!! What we are looking for on the 12z is more trough disruption and scandi high backing west even further!! Oh and the obvious, a bit more snow om Tuesday and Wednesday !!

[mcweather]

With yet another putting off of the proposed Atlantic insurgence towards the end of the week. One can't help but get just the inkling of a feeling that the bigger picture mentioned by the likes of Chiono and Tamara may just be starting to be heard as a stronger signal above the chaos of Atmospheric white noise in the current modelling.

 

I  would not be  at all surprised if we start seeing some 1947esque synoptics popping up in FI over the coming week of model watching.

To me this week has all the hallmarks of a minor skirmish prior to a much bigger event.

[bluearmy]

Pretty sure they haven't taken into account the 1mm of rain = 1cm of snow rule. There's no way they would cap the scale at 20cm.

 

Bluearmy, Ian F himself said Scotland would get disruptive snowfall and mid-Wales northwards had a good shot of seeing some snow. I don't see how you can possibly put Northern ireland in a warning and not Scotland, which is what UKMO have done

He talked about the 'greatest risk'. That's not the same is it?

The front will have decent precip on it when it arrives in n Ireland - that's why the warning is there. At the moment, too much doubt how much will get to the mainland so no warnings yet.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Just a brief one from me at moment as 12z role out.  GFS 06Z has for me something of a run here.  HP to ENE to be in place for A while is on the money for me as I've gone on about and its effect will pan out as we go along and it is IMO looking likely influence to keep us below average rather than other way round.  It is very likely to come under pressure as 06 shows but has enough influence to not get quickly pushed away and keep things interestingly chilly/cold.  On that I think the ever present AZH is going to become 'useful' as we enter Feb.  I do see and maintain a shift is afoot and coming due to the SSW we had.  I think what 06 goes on to show with deep troughing and an ever increasing NW to N flow to develop as the AZH retrogresses and links back towards Newfoundland and S Greenland.....so deep FI 06z is looking very feasible.  PV to shift and a very cold volatile pattern to set in

 

This is where I sort of see us heading for my 'coldest month' with maybe block to our east not shunted as far east.

 

 

 

BFTP

Edited January 18, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Rocheydub]

Just waiting for the first: "OMG, this is even further west and the High is inflated at T6" post...

There are quite a few things to be ironed out in the early stages of this afternoon's runs, so please can we wait until the run is at least at 120 before calling it better/worse etc! That really grinds my gears!!!

Thank you...

 

and breathe in….. and out….

[Eskimo]

Just waiting for the first: "OMG, this is even further west and the High is inflated at T6" post...

There are quite a few things to be ironed out in the early stages of this afternoon's runs, so please can we wait until the run is at least at 120 before calling it better/worse etc! That really grinds my gears!!!

Thank you...

 

and breathe in….. and out….

Well it's the model output discussion and that starts at T0.

Low digging in further south on the 12z on Tuesday.

 

06z

 

12z

 

[SMU]

sorry to bore people but the GFS is notoriously poor at separating energy, now its getting a full grip on that low so more its getting the accuracy that there will be a shallow system ahead of the parent low ( 2 actually - 1 at T40 & one at around T60)

 

As a result of the atlantic energy now being 'seen' as more disjointed so the cold air & tracks are bending further west....

 

GFS upgrade 12z

GME upgrade RE long term cold at 132.....

 

Again expect upgrades on the slider at 120 as well-

 

Its all gravy as they say!
S

Edited January 18, 2015 by Steve Murr

[summer blizzard]

Remember people, it's the low leaving Canada at day 5 that's important. Weaker and slower..

[bluearmy]

T120 is taking ages to arrive!

Can I say 'it's different' ?

Keeping us in our toes but the heights to the ne seem to be coming into play more and more. Given the apparent strong Atlantic jet, surely that presents so much to look forward to from a cold perspective?

Edited January 18, 2015 by bluearmy

[Met4Cast]

96hr correction West, better Easterly on this one

 

 

Beyond this, take with a pinch of salt

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Intial slider 20/21 clears through quicker, good or bad?  Is it likely to be a more active feature....dates to me say yes.  Let's see where it leads from there.  T108 and the trough to NW not disrupting SE yet as the 06z had signs of it doing

 

Having said that tentative signs on t114 of that starting....t126 says 'not really' and this has AZH being more influential written over it

 

BFTP

Edited January 18, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[bluearmy]

t114 has the system exiting the Eastern seaboard slower and pulls the ah back further. Should allow the Icelandic depression to disrupt further west and the Scandi ridge to be even more influencial - that's the theory!

EDIT: different profile to our North had carried the jet further east than the 06z run.

It's just different and tricky to draw any conclusions.

Edited January 18, 2015 by bluearmy

[summer blizzard]

Should be a decent run for a good week or so. The low is still south of Canada at day 5 and so has not yet phased. 

[swfc]

Hmm change at 120 hrs regarding the second low.Looks like its attached itself to the pv over Greenland and hanging on for grim death!!

[summer blizzard]

t114 has the system exiting the Eastern seaboard slower and pulls the ah back further. Should allow the Icelandic depression to disrupt further west and the Scandi ridge to be even more influencial - that's the theory!

 

Unless we get a NAVGEM solution then the the low leaving the eastern seaboard will phase with the Icelandic low but because the Icelandic Low is weak, it'll happen further west. 

[snowking]

UKMO at 96 v t120 yesterday:

 

 

Big swing westwards

 

SK

[SMU]

UKMO 72

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2015011812/UW72-21.GIF?18-17 -TRACK

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[gottolovethisweather]

UKMO at 96 v t120 yesterday:

 

 

Big swing westwards

 

SK

 

Fax charts will make interesting viewing especially for those of us situated in Central parts of the UK by said timeframe and perhaps other areas, as to my eyes the incoming front by then will not be making much inroads and will be positively stalling.   This latter situation has been mentioned by those in the know before in this thread. I suspect it may be brought up in the media forecasts too as there will likely be further travel problems midweek for some regions. Usual caveats apply until details are firmed up on this event and I'll leave that horrible task to the professionals.

Edited January 18, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[Blake]

Azores high trying to make inroads again? Good run in the short term, maybe not so beyond t144...

 

[Hocus Pocus]

UKMO 72

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2015011812/UW72-21.GIF?18-17 -TRACK

 

 

UK MAP.png

 

 

Im just on the Northern edge of the sweet spot Steve, personally I think that the warming of the Irish Sea will leave many without elevation with rain/sleet, the further East the better.

[bluearmy]

The gravy goes lumpy after day 4 !

Guess expecting every run to follow the same trend is asking too much!

[SMU]

Not to worry BA - 12z GFS = Progressive.

 

Infact all models have been fairly progressive this last 72 hours...

 

ECM seems to be coming back inline with the last 5 runs having general consistency to 144-

 

S

[TonyH]

Not trying to raise a separate discussion here, but they also often overcook them, can I ask why you think there will be more than suggested?

Just an instinctive hunch, last minute developments in marginal situations seen it a hundred times

[Geordiesnow]

Still the trend for the Scandi high to edge eastwards towards Russia which of course means more chance for the Atlantic to eventually win the battle. Of course there is signs the scandi may be more stronger and may resist the Atlantic somewhat but there is no real trend for it to back too far westwards to allow any significant cold to come in from Scandi and that is  a fact really. 

 

Regarding the easterly, well not only it is probably not cold enough for snow for the most part, it could turn out that there is not much instability either so a lot of cloud, feeling quite unpleasant really. 

 

Would not mind taking a cold raw easterly if it can lead to some reward down the line but it looks doubtful really.