Model Output Discussion - 16th Jan 12z onwards - Smile While You Post!

[nick sussex]

 

^^^ Yes on this run lots of snow in the North Sea. The pattern just a bit too far east: gfs-0-240-8.pnggfs-2-240.png

 

Yes but the interest is really over Iceland , we don't manage it here but at that range it could change. if the pattern upstream is more amplified with more dig south of the jet that would help to cleanly eject the shortwave.

 

Its better than what the 00hrs wanted to do with ejecting the PV se across Greenland, in that case it was game over.

 

Very hard to know at this stage what could happen, the Euro troughing looks likely to verify given the overwhelming signal for that but as for the rest still too early to say.

[TEITS]

Awesome ECM this morning

 

t192

 

 

 

 

 

 

t216, reload coming with cold air already entrenched

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

and t240

 

 

 

 

 

This is what I've been banging on about and why I said the other day I'm issuing severe weather alert/watch/ and I'm ALL in.  GFS not too shabby either.  Remember, general theme and timing more or less ok with that.  Also that Atlantic block would probably give way [ok with that]...reloads down the line?...I think so...I'm quite interested in FI as I think very impactual weather lies ahead...

 

 

TEITS, this illustrates what I meant/tried to explain the other day, it isn't the same as we had before this winter but also shows no true HLB to maintain pattern....trough is not to our NW so its a colder pattern

 

BFTP

Trouble is though Fred there is nothing severe showing on the ECM run upto +240. Weatherwise you would see snow showers for Scotland especially higher ground but for some parts especially the S the max temps would still reach around 5C.

 

I still stand by my point that we need high pressure developing to our N to bring any sustained, very cold period. At the moment the NW,ly does look fairly certain but nothing severe except maybe some strong winds to accompany those snow showers in Scotland. Beyond this is hard to predict but I am concerned by the 06Z very mild pattern in F.I because some GEFS members have been hinting at this.

 

Sorry for being negative but im just trying to keep members feet on the ground and not give them false hope. If you remember I said the same on this thread with regards to our current cold spell and judging by members views on this current cold spell I was right to be cautious.

Edited January 23, 2015 by TEITS

[The Weather Dragon]

Not liking this !!!! 1050mb - that won't shift in a hurry

Edited January 23, 2015 by Jonathan Evans

[John Badrick]

Not liking this !!!! 1050mb - that won't shift in a hurry

16 days away, unlikely to verify!!!!

[TEITS]

Not liking this !!!! 1050mb - that won't shift in a hurry

Worth adding that when Ian F mentioned blocking many wrongly assumed this means a big freeze is on the way. Obviously the blocking has to be in the right place and on the 06Z the high pressure is certainly in the wrong place.

[DIS1970]

Nope those last 4 charts would great in July, i'm beginning to think we are chasing shadows for any type of prolonged snowfall in the southern half of the UK. We need a high pressure to establish itself to the north or northeast of the country but that jetstream is just too strong for anything to take hold.

[Jason H]

Nope those last 4 charts would great in July, i'm beginning to think we are chasing shadows for any type of prolonged snowfall in the southern half of the UK. We need a high pressure to establish itself to the north or northeast of the country but that jetstream is just too strong for anything to take hold.

On face value, whilst I am inclined to agree with that assessment, you never know what can pop up. Ian F left some interesting comments earlier about the current set up. As TEITS has mentioned above, it's where the blocking occurs that's the crucial factor. The latest operational GFS is not in a favourable position for colder weather over the whole UK, not just the South. Still plenty of winter left for something colder, but at the moment, like you, I can't see anything too obvious in the current outputs for sustained cold.

[Weather-history]

Not liking this !!!! 1050mb - that won't shift in a hurry

That would be close to record breaking, Azores highs of that intensity, displaced or not are rare.

[karlos1983]

On face value, whilst I am inclined to agree with that assessment, you never know what can pop up. Ian F left some interesting comments earlier about the current set up. As TEITS has mentioned above, it's where the blocking occurs that's the crucial factor. The latest operational GFS is not in a favourable position for colder weather over the whole UK, not just the South. Still plenty of winter left for something colder, but at the moment, like you, I can't see anything too obvious in the current outputs for sustained cold.

 

Well you say plenty of time, but to get snow on the ground and to stay there will become harder the further into February we go as the sun becomes ever stronger, especially in the south of the UK, which so far this winter has not done well at all. So the less we see these sort of charts, the better! even though in deep la la land 

 

[TEITS]

I would get more interested if the control run was correct.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015012306/gens-0-1-216.png

 

At least you would get a few days of cold NW/N/NE,lys before it topples.

 

Problem is the mean is much flatter.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015012306/gens-21-1-240.png

[IDO]

Not a bad ECM cluster and at that range a very strong sign. Assuming this is not mischief from the algorithms then a continued good signal:

https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/558591620564926464

[TonyH]

Worth adding that when Ian F mentioned blocking many wrongly assumed this means a big freeze is on the way. Obviously the blocking has to be in the right place and on the 06Z the high pressure is certainly in the wrong place.

Indeed it could be dare I say a Bartlett.

[Man With Beard]

I'm confused guys. It's the end of January. So how on earth can a chart like this:

only return uppers like this?

Come on - I mean, only -4C uppers in the Faroes???

 

TEITS: quick look at the ens for T216 - I think 13 out of the 20 go for a northerly of sorts at this time period - not bad - but again, only a few of them are as cold at 850Hpa as they look!

Edited January 23, 2015 by rjbw

[bluearmy]

Not a bad ECM cluster and at that range a very strong sign. Assuming this is not mischief from the algorithms then a continued good signal:

https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/558591620564926464

I think thata the 11/15 day mean/anomoly IDO although he does state that half the runs habe the Alaskan ridge.

Of course - for us, that may not mean the euro trough is quite close enough as time passes.

[karlos1983]

I'm confused guys. It's the end of January. So how on earth can a chart like this:

only return uppers like this?

Come on - I mean, only -4C uppers in the Faroes???

 

TEITS: quick look at the ens for T216 - I think 13 out of the 20 go for a northerly of sorts at this time period - not bad - but again, only a few of them are as cold at 850Hpa as they look!

 

Because it's not that cold at the source/NE.

[Woollymummy]

I'm confused guys. It's the end of January. So how on earth can a chart like this:

only return uppers like this?

Come on - I mean, only -4C uppers in the Faroes???

 

Because the whole of the sea near the Scandinavian coastline is warmer than usual, possibly?

 

 

[shotski]

Worth adding that when Ian F mentioned blocking many wrongly assumed this means a big freeze is on the way. Obviously the blocking has to be in the right place and on the 06Z the high pressure is certainly in the wrong place.

But that's not northern blocking, I'm sure Ian F mentioned northern blocking ?

[keithlucky]

Europe climbs on the Polar Express according to USA GFS

[TonyH]

But that's not northern blocking, I'm sure Ian F mentioned northern blocking ?

Nope just blocking, and he stressed the positioning would be crucial.

Edited January 23, 2015 by TonyH

[TonyH]

Don't get carried away though. The critical part of my post was regarding where we see any block and resultant broadscale flow/temperature regime. I can't stress that enough.

See

[Bobd29]

Nope just blocking, and he stressed the positioning would be crucial.

Very true but if anything of the pressure level of that monster verified then it could go wherever it wants, and a couple of hundred miles more north would indeed mean game on....unlikely maybe but interesting nonetheless

[The Weather Dragon]

Ian did mention blocking - and if you remember a week or so ago - he mentioned that Met models were trending an anticyclonic spell in February with a SW airflow - a Bartlett fits the bill ! At least it will be dry & settled

[Eugene]

Yay GFS 06Z has the pattern nailed two weeks in advance, now where's that BBQ.

[SMU]

Afternoon All-

 

Well, we are nearly 2 thirds done & already Im looking at the models out to 16 thinking that perhaps ( for the south at least ) its going to be another poor winter. At this stage minimal excitement for the forthcoming pattern unless we can deliver some heights to the North west of the UK- otherwise any cold that arrives will be quite transitory.

 

I appreciate that for those further north, especially Scotland & the Northern hills this could be another pattern that delivers frequent snow showers & opportunities for frontal snow, however as it stands a 2 day chilly North westerly delivers zero for here.

 

There is scope for it to change because at day 10 there are still all patterns on the table, however they need to develop soon- possibly supported by the arctic high, which could manifest in a continental flow down the line, although seeing as the vortex has been perma lodged over baffin this Winter I would say its not the favourite.

 

(something like the GEM 00z)

 

The optimist in me says it may well happen, but the realist in me says we could see time ticking away if at day 10 ( feb 3rd ) the pattern is flattening off-

 

Still 5 weeks of winter left & possibly 2-3 into march- & plenty of time- however as a rule of thumb - if no high level blocking has developed by Feb Mid- its game over.

 

See you soon in the week if the models do swing to the blocky pattern,.....

S

Edited January 23, 2015 by Steve Murr

[Weather Boy]

Jonathan

 

A bit of a misconception in your original post that the more intense the high the more difficult it is to shift.  Not so.  I do not know what it is that determines how easy or difficult it is to shift a block, or how one can tell that from charts.

 

Of course, given the chart that you posted is so far away, and at 1050 over central Europe, it seems exceptionally unlikely to verify, I would say that it is a somewhat academic discussion at this point in time.