Model Output Discussion - 16th Jan 12z onwards - Smile While You Post!

[nick sussex]

Many thanks for that Nick, much appreciated.

You're welcome , if we do see a low track se'wards then lets hope its further west to deliver some snow to the UK. Overall I think the models will verify with the trough in the eastern USA and the one in Europe but the issue is what happens to the Azores high.

[fergieweather]

Well... good support in new EC Monthly by mid-Feb for GloSea5 signal re increased incidence of blocking. Indeed, by week 4, first output we've seen all winter with NO low MSLP anomalies anywhere on the NW Atlantic-European charts. However....where blocking sets-up, if it establishes, is another matter. This was stressed earlier re GloSea5 signal: it MAY lead to colder weather but equally may do opposite. Nonetheless, a growing (if still tentative) bi-model indicator of change eventually afoot.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Well... good support in new EC Monthly by mid-Feb for GloSea5 signal re increased incidence of blocking. Indeed, by week 4, first output we've seen all winter with NO low MSLP anomalies anywhere on the NW Atlantic-European charts. However....where blocking sets-up, if it establishes, is another matter. This was stressed earlier re GloSea5 signal: it MAY lead to colder weather but equally may do opposite. Nonetheless, a growing (if still tentative) bi-model indicator of change eventually afoot.

Well the only synoptic evolution promoting a warm up mid Feb time (allied to N blocking) would be a west based -NAO. This would potentially enable a southerly flow. Other than that there would still be enough N hemispheric cold to tap into with a mean NWly right through to an easterly. Obviously a mean NEly flow would be optimal for cold lovers.

I have a feeling we may follow a 2013 trajectory but we'll see.

Edited January 22, 2015 by CreweCold

[blizzard81]

The ECM control looks like the op though days 9/10 slightly more amplified which brings the runner into the uk nw/se through Scotland and into the s North Sea. The warm sector marginal with potential widespread snowfall. Another little runner comes into the trough day 11 nw/se into the Irish Sea. Thus system more a shortwave. Thereafter the uk generally closer to the Atlantic ridge than euro trough which slowly sinks se as the atlantic ridge builds ne into scandi across to our north. The run ends with a new trough coming around the top of the mid Atlantic ridge and dropping into w scandi. The uk remains under sub zero uppers throughout apart from the very end of the run as the dropping trough forces the ridge south ahead of it.

This run quite reflective of the extended eps. The mid Atlantic ridge looks quite solid for quite a few days. Doesn't look like a toppler to me based on these. However, the final couple days of the run do look a bit flatter to our west and I wouldn't know whether that increases the likelihood of zonal or the Azores ridge pushing ne. either are feasible.

Thank you Ba, much appreciated as ever. I agree, this does not appear to be a standard toppler. To me, the standard toppler is typified by the trough to our

north heading east into northern Norway and the azores high ridging in over us. However, this event sends the trough south east towards northern Germany and this helps to resist the azores high ridging in quite so quickly. Although, this may just be delaying the ridge by a couple of days.

Well... good support in new EC Monthly by mid-Feb for GloSea5 signal re increased incidence of blocking. Indeed, by week 4, first output we've seen all winter with NO low MSLP anomalies anywhere on the NW Atlantic-European charts. However....where blocking sets-up, if it establishes, is another matter. This was stressed earlier re GloSea5 signal: it MAY lead to colder weather but equally may do opposite. Nonetheless, a growing (if still tentative) bi-model indicator of change eventually afoot.

Possibly the most important post of the winter so far.

Edited January 22, 2015 by blizzard81

[polarwind]

Thank you. I was not aware of this research. It is very interesting and just goes to show the complex nature of meteorology and linked sciences.

To clarify myself, I did not mean "luck of the draw" in the sense as to why the Azores is there..a poor choice of words from me there. What I wanted to say was that the smallest of changes on the day to day basis from the Azores high can often mean big differences in the surface weather we subsequently end up with in the UK.

The choice of words is a very difficult skill - I'm getting on a bit and I'm still learning.

I agree with the rest of what you say.

[blizzard81]

GFS 18z edges towards ECM. Minus 6 uppers into northern England by next Friday night.

[andy_leics22]

Well... good support in new EC Monthly by mid-Feb for GloSea5 signal re increased incidence of blocking. Indeed, by week 4, first output we've seen all winter with NO low MSLP anomalies anywhere on the NW Atlantic-European charts. However....where blocking sets-up, if it establishes, is another matter. This was stressed earlier re GloSea5 signal: it MAY lead to colder weather but equally may do opposite. Nonetheless, a growing (if still tentative) bi-model indicator of change eventually afoot.

Thanks for that Fergie adds optimism to some of the glum faces reading this thread at the moment! Lets hope that blocking will occur within the next few weeks.

Otherwise, we'll be needing 'Fergie time' to prolong the Winter. pun intended

[The Enforcer]

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean looks very good if you like increasingly cold, stormy and potentially snowy weather..which I do..certainly the snowy part, a solid looking mean tonight. Seems we won't have long to wait for our next burst of wintry weather, it could be the best of the season so far with blizzards, severe gales and ice.

... don't forget the ubiquitous mild sector and rain - see below:

 

The ECM control looks like the op though days 9/10 slightly more amplified which brings the runner into the uk nw/se through Scotland and into the s North Sea. The warm sector marginal with potential widespread snowfall. Another little runner comes into the trough day 11 nw/se into the Irish Sea. Thus system more a shortwave. Thereafter the uk generally closer to the Atlantic ridge than euro trough which slowly sinks se as the atlantic ridge builds ne into scandi across to our north. The run ends with a new trough coming around the top of the mid Atlantic ridge and dropping into w scandi. The uk remains under sub zero uppers throughout apart from the very end of the run as the dropping trough forces the ridge south ahead of it.

[Ali1977]

Potential big snow event next Sat, miles away I know but the feature coming down from the NW after the initial Northely blast has been shown on a few runs now.

[Mark Neal.]

Potential big snow event next Sat, miles away I know but the feature coming down from the NW after the initial Northely blast has been shown on a few runs now.

Also Blue Army talked about a runner heading SE, *could* bring widespread snowfall.. One to keep an eye on!

[Duane S.]

The Taiwanese model is where it's at.

Plenty of support from other models of only a brief stay in the dreaded COD.

[bluearmy]

... don't forget the ubiquitous mild sector and rain - see below:

No one is going to care about me posting a warm sector from a day 10 control are they! Tbh, I doubt any warm front would be left and the occlusion probably delivers snow. All conjecture at this range though.

[goosey007]

GFS 18Z Looks positively freezing in greenland -40 uppers !-10 uppers into Scotland also and large part of UK under -6....trend continues!

[The Enforcer]

image.jpg

No one is going to care about me posting a warm sector from a day 10 control are they! Tbh, I doubt any warm front would be left and the occlusion probably delivers snow. All conjecture at this range though.

I care, because it usually ends up being the scourge of these parts and recent experiences reveal that an occlusion doesn't help, but point taken about conjecture.

[Mark Neal.]

Don't know if this has been posted but Cohens updated his blog.. https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

Edited January 22, 2015 by DiagonalRedLine
(Fixed broken link)

[Banbury]

Don't know if this has been posted but Cohens updated his blog..https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation-

Link doesn't work for me, it says    page not found

[fergieweather]

Thanks for that Fergie adds optimism to some of the glum faces reading this thread at the moment! Lets hope that blocking will occur within the next few weeks.

Otherwise, we'll be needing 'Fergie time' to prolong the Winter. pun intended

Don't get carried away though. The critical part of my post was regarding where we see any block and resultant broadscale flow/temperature regime. I can't stress that enough.

[Shunter]

Link doesn't work for me, it says    page not found

 

Try this.....https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

[Banbury]

Try this.....https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

Thank you

[andy_leics22]

Don't get carried away though. The critical part of my post was regarding where we see any block and resultant broadscale flow/temperature regime. I can't stress that enough.

Yeah I see what you are saying Ian. I think any potential positive sign towards blocking is clung onto by many people on here! I'm one of them as well because I'm also a big lover of snow.

Don't worry, i'm sure people won't start blaming you if it doesn't come off!

[TEITS]

As already mentioned its worth keeping an eye on this low tracking SE as shown on the 18Z. With cold air already in place this could bring some fun and games to the UK. This has been shown a few times in recent model runs.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2161.gif

 

On a negative note I still don't see anything sustained from the N/NW though. A positive NAO continues to be the trend into F.I.

 

 

Improvement on the GEFS mean at +192 with a shift W.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015012218/gens-21-1-192.png

Edited January 22, 2015 by TEITS

[TEITS]

Blimey you don't see this often in F.I.

 

GEFS control 12Z and 18Z are virtually identical.

 

 

 

[Banbury]

The control again looks to the NE

[andy_leics22]

Blimey you don't see this often in F.I.

 

GEFS control 12Z and 18Z are virtually identical.

 

gens-0-1-300.pnggens-0-1-288.png

That is incredible! The chances of the models showing very similar setups deep into F.I are very small. In the 10 years i've been following the models, I don't think i've ever seen that.

[TEITS]

That is incredible! The chances of the models showing very similar setups deep into F.I are very small. In the 10 years i've been following the models, I don't think i've ever seen that.

What is also odd is no other 18Z ensemble member shows anything like the control run. So the fact the 12/18Z are identical is even more strange.Like you say I don't think I have seen this before.