Model Output Discussion - 16th Jan 12z onwards - Smile While You Post!

[Ali1977]

Almost irrespective of where we eventually sit on the 'coldness' score, a very striking aspect of the weather towards end of next week is just how windy it could become: perhaps disruptively so. Certainly looking a key focus for model-watching.

If this falls in line with cold enough temps from a NWly flow then potential blizzards at low levels....is that something plausible in this set up?

[Woollymummy]

This looks windy....at this timescale, is it likely to be windy but we are not sure exactly where? or is the uncertainty more to do with whether or not it will be this windy? 

[Ali1977]

If this falls in line with cold enough temps from a NWly flow then potential blizzards at low levels....is that something plausible in this set up? Not at all saying the "potential" cold is guaranteed!!!

[Liam J]

This looks windy....at this timescale, is it likely to be windy but we are not sure exactly where? or is the uncertainty more to do with whether or not it will be this windy? 

We'd have a natural disaster in the UK if we had those wind speeds at ground level! That is the jet stream forecast for late next week, around 5-9 miles above our heads. It could spawn some vicious depressions as Ian F has already mentioned. 

[Frosty.]

There is no doubt about it, tonight's Ecm 12z op run shows a descent into a much colder and stormier phase beyond the flip flop milder / colder conditions up to the middle of next week, I think both the earlier and current ecm is similar to the met office describing an upcoming increasingly disturbed and somewhat colder spell from late next week. I think the 12z runs have strengthened the idea of a deep winter storm with snow, gales and storm force winds during the end of Jan and early Feb. I think an exciting period of model watching is on the way. :-)

[fergieweather]

If this falls in line with cold enough temps from a NWly flow then potential blizzards at low levels....is that something plausible in this set up?

Certainly over northern uplands. Could be dire in elevated parts of Scotland and elsewhere in N if outcome was as modelled (speaking wholly speculatively).

[Woollymummy]

We'd have a natural disaster in the UK if we had those wind speeds at ground level! That is the jet stream forecast for late next week, around 5-9 miles above our heads. It could spawn some vicious depressions as Ian F has already mentioned. 

I know where the jetstream is but thanks for letting any novices know in case they weren't aware! it is just more likely that if it kicks off like that, we are likely to see some little gales pop up again, aren't we? if so, is a week in advance too far away to work out where/when?

[nick sussex]

Solid agreement with high certainty for a deep trough in the eastern USA and the same over western Europe unfortunately the space in the middle is far from clear.

 

The Azores high in terms of displacing seems solid but how much it amplifies is another question.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

If this falls in line with cold enough temps from a NWly flow then potential blizzards at low levels....is that something plausible in this set up? Not at all saying the "potential" cold is guaranteed!!!

ECM wanting some of the action?  Turn of month into Feb maintains a 'severe' weather warning from me of very wintry impactual weather from NW to N and at times NE quadrant due to trough over UK/Scandi and NW Europe locale, .  As you know I've been targetting this period for some time and it for me is going to be a repeating pattern [as in not a real cold blast and HP to calm down and keep it cold, crisp and even] more real cold blasts with the trough being very much in charge with repeated volatile conditions.  Interesting pdate from I F isn't it?

 

BFTP

 

Ali

I'm all IN.....early Feb onwards for me to bring 'severe' weather warnings .....it may come sooner but NI, NW Eng, N Wales, Scotland, NE Eng for starters then extending to rest of country. 

 

BFTP

[Liam J]

I know where the jetstream is but thanks for letting any novices know in case they weren't aware! it is just more likely that if it kicks off like that, we are likely to see some little gales pop up again, aren't we? if so, is a week in advance too far away to work out where/when?

LOL sorry.. It could become very windy late next week but it's too far out atm to pin any detail down on when & where. Interesting period of model watching coming up and yet again this winter it looks like we'll have everything and the kitchen sink thrown at us! Just wish the pesky Azores high would do one!! Up to Greenland would be a good start...

[Nouska]

Certainly over northern uplands. Could be dire in elevated parts of Scotland and elsewhere in N if outcome was as modelled (speaking wholly speculatively).

 

Indeed! The ECM snow charts from the IMO have continuous snowfall for the North over the last four days of the run - some large cumulative totals if that verifies.

 

T+174 as an example and all the six hourly increments are similar.

 

[Froze were the Days]

Azores high still going no where...at times a bit amplified other times flattening - getting a bit tedious now.

[Sweatyman]

A few posts apparently referring to how winter is panning out in the south.Midlands north has had two decent snow events ,boxing day and Tuesday/Wed and Scotland many.

The end if next week has the potential to bring a proper deep winter storm through with low 850s into the mix.Fascinating so far.

Hope to post charts a little later.

north midlands did but not west( sorry-just making it clear!)

[chris55]

Day 8-9-10 signals with the deep euro trough are very interesting with regards to a "potential" freezing Feb. These thoughts / "hopes" based on a little bit of faith lol. But certainly a possibility, GFS control highlights the best kind of evolution,

 

 

The Greenland heights are irrelevant as plenty an easterly has delivered even with low heights over Greenland.

 

Keep your fingers crossed guys and girls, but whatever transpires the signal is better than a Barlette till the end of days.........

 

We are overdue a cold Feb!!!!

[MP-R]

Day 8-9-10 signals with the deep euro trough are very interesting with regards to a "potential" freezing Feb. These thoughts / "hopes" based on a little bit of faith lol. But certainly a possibility, GFS control highlights the best kind of evolution,

 

 

The Greenland heights are irrelevant as plenty an easterly has delivered even with low heights over Greenland.

 

Keep your fingers crossed guys and girls, but whatever transpires the signal is better than a Barlette till the end of days.........

 

We are overdue a cold Feb!!!!

 

Worthy of note in that chart is the concentration of purples on the Canada side of Greenland rather than the Iceland side, can make all the difference in getting cold in off the continent with high pressure nudging in over the UK with lower heights propping it up underneath. All up in the air at the moment but something to look out for in future runs.

[Cloud 10]

Day 8 ensemble means from GEFS and ECM have similar ideas with a deep trough close to the East of the UK with a cold NW flow likely.

 

ECM is typically more amplified so has the trough further West than GEFS,although NOAA seem keen on highly amplified solutions so ECM could be on the ball here.

 

ecm..  gefs..

 

 

Must be some stonking Northerlies amongst the 51 ECM ensemble members after day 7.

[mcweather]

It appears stubborn, but there is no mystery surrounding the Azores High  .  

 

Easterly winds across the tropics pulsing through the Pacific and Atlantic support robust sub tropical ridge development. The pattern, as controlled by an upstream Pacific amplification (+PNA ridge) and the northward ridging of the sub tropical high pressure belt (the Azores High) steepens thermal gradients and jet flow energy.

 

This pattern, as advertised within the 10 day period. However, the stratospheric signal to displace vorticity eastwards provides an increasing NW/SE tilt to the jet stream to add more and more polar flavour into the mix as we head towards day 10  .

 

A very interesting  post Tamara and one that has me wondering about the possibilities of a Feb 1978 Scenario developing as the month progresses.

Edited January 22, 2015 by mcweather

[blizzard81]

ECM extended ensembles for debilt trending much colder and the control is the second very cold, snowy run on the trot - very interesting.

If BA is reading, it would be great to know the synoptics of the control run?

Edited January 22, 2015 by blizzard81

[goosey007]

Hi all,

The models definitely look to be trending cooler towards the end of month and into the first week of Feb. Yes this Ecm chart is la la land but definately seeing some encouraging signs if only the models could find the keys to unleash the beast as we have some good uppers pouring into the continent via Scandinavia.

[nick sussex]

ECM extended ensembles for debilt trending much colder and the control is the second very cold, snowy run on the trot - very interesting.

Judging by the wind directions for the control I think it runs a low se'wards to the west of Holland indicated by the switch from nw to se and associated precip spike, it then brings in a north/nw flow probably in relation to the Azores high extending further north, this topples shown by the quick transition from nw to ne then east/se before going s/sw but still cold, probably in relation high pressure sinking into the continent.

 

If BA's around later he might be able to pin the control down with more detail but that's the best I can do with just wind directions/temps!

Edited January 22, 2015 by nick sussex

[Penrith Snow]

Some extremely interesting charts around tonight and ECM is loaded with potential if snow and gales is your thing.

Despite being disappointed with the recent cold spell which should have been better up here this winter certainly isn't a borefest and all those Bartlet charts being pumped out at new year have come to nothing.

A much better winter than last year but the majority of the UK still awaits a proper wintry spell, north Cumbria included.

Andy

[damianslaw]

Reliable timeframe - all models showing a very topsy turvy spell with alternating mild and cooler spells from day to day, later next week strong theme for the azores high to make a more concerted effort of displacement to the NW allowing a more pronounced NW flow to develop with low heights to the NE - this ties in with the Jetstream forecasts which show a strong jet crashing into the UK on a NW-SE axis.

 

So January looks like going out on a very changeable note, just like the whole winter has been so far, with very mixed conditions - very typical standard winter fayre, but with synoptics that could easily enable another cold blast to develop.

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean looks very good if you like increasingly cold, stormy and potentially snowy weather..which I do..certainly the snowy part, a solid looking mean tonight. Seems we won't have long to wait for our next burst of wintry weather, it could be the best of the season so far with blizzards, severe gales and ice.

[blizzard81]

Judging by the wind directions for the control I think it runs a low se'wards to the west of Holland indicated by the switch from nw to se and associated precip spike, it then brings in a north/nw flow probably in relation to the Azores high extending further north, this topples shown by the quick transition from nw to ne then east/se before going s/sw but still cold, probably in relation high pressure sinking into the continent.

 

If BA's around later he might be able to pin the control down with more detail but that's the best I can do with just wind directions/temps!

Many thanks for that Nick, much appreciated.

[bluearmy]

The ECM control looks like the op though days 9/10 slightly more amplified which brings the runner into the uk nw/se through Scotland and into the s North Sea. The warm sector marginal with potential widespread snowfall. Another little runner comes into the trough day 11 nw/se into the Irish Sea. Thus system more a shortwave. Thereafter the uk generally closer to the Atlantic ridge than euro trough which slowly sinks se as the atlantic ridge builds ne into scandi across to our north. The run ends with a new trough coming around the top of the mid Atlantic ridge and dropping into w scandi. The uk remains under sub zero uppers throughout apart from the very end of the run as the dropping trough forces the ridge south ahead of it.

This run quite reflective of the extended eps. The mid Atlantic ridge looks quite solid for quite a few days. Doesn't look like a toppler to me based on these. However, the final couple days of the run do look a bit flatter to our west and I wouldn't know whether that increases the likelihood of zonal or the Azores ridge pushing ne. either are feasible.

Edited January 22, 2015 by bluearmy