Model Output Discussion - 16th Jan 12z onwards - Smile While You Post!

[karlos1983]

The Denmark Strait is between Iceland and Greenland (which is an overseas territory of Denmark).

 

Ah ok, ty

[bluearmy]

That depth of euro trouging seems a bit early in the expected evolution .

Need to see what the catalyst for that was in that particular run.

Does show that mobility may not be what you were expecting it to be!

[Winter Cold]

A pretty good GFS 12z if you ask me. The majority of the run (id even say 90%) has the UK under sub zero uppers of -4 or better   A nice cold NWerly most of the time. Plenty for us coldies on this run to smile about!

[Snow Grain]

Just taken a look at the latest output. Goes to show how poor this winter has been for the coldies as people on here are getting excited about northwesterlies. I am hoping for more amplification to the north and North East which hopefully will bring true winter weather from the east.

[nick sussex]

It's amazing how quiet this thread becomes as most dart off to the regional threads.

 

Still wondering whether there might be some surprise snow as a cold front clears se during Saturday, theres quite a steep temperature gradient suggesting that the precip has a chance of being caught up by some colder 850's behind the cold front.

 

The models have actually slowly increased the upstream amplification, originally there was too much early phasing between the low near the UK and the one exiting the eastern USA.

 

Anyway still a few days out for that so just something to watch out for.

 

At this point if we could squeeze just a bit more amplification that would increase chances, lets hope the ECM can do that because both the GFS and UKMO have backtracked towards it, they were flatter originally upstream and that eastern USA low was ejected too quickly and too flat.

 

The ECM is similar in terms of temperature gradient but because of the 24hr steps its difficult to judge, we'll have to wait for the Icelandic site to update as that has 6hr steps.

 

In the mean time good agreement between the ECM and GFS upto T216hrs with displacing the Azores high and digging low heights into mainland Europe.If this trend verifies then any milder weather will be brief, upstream I'd say theres differences with a developing low and how flat versus amplified this might be, if this is more amplified this would sharpen up troughing to the west of the UK , so between T168 and T192hrs a chance that might be more favourable to deliver something wintry for the UK.

 

The ECM at T240hrs almost splits the PV and is encouraging for cold potential, overall not bad trends this evening.

Edited January 20, 2015 by nick sussex

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Hmmmmm...ECM beginning to feel the love.  Timing seems not too bad either as I think it'll be early Feb before the best set up but that is definitely for me showing the right direction.  It's deep FI and detail will alter but somehow I have more confidence of this pattern setting up come Feb rather than blisteringly cold easterlies with the way the AZH has always wanted to be part of our winter?  One thing to note is bottom left hand corner....that'll possibly prevent high amplification and would probably go on to roll over the top.  Still onwards and upwards, I'm pleased with the runs

 

BFTP

 

Edited January 20, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[blizzard81]

ECM day 10 1055 arctic high. Ties in with Tamara's pincer movement. If she is correct on this one, I think it will be remembered and we could use the term TPM to describe similar synoptics in the winters to come

[bluearmy]

gfs day 10 not looking so crazy ?

 

like i said earlier, this evolution is expected but not until later week 2. the current cold spell accelerated its onset ahead of the ens prediction. same again or ops being over aggressive with the solution ?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

gfs day 10 not looking so crazy ?

 

like i said earlier, this evolution is expected but not until later week 2. the current cold spell accelerated its onset ahead of the ens prediction. same again or ops being over aggressive with the solution ?

BA

It seems a tad speedy, I'm thinking more from say mid first week of Feb although set up plausibly earlier as I think we'll descend into it rather than 'flip'

 

BFTP

Edited January 20, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[blizzard81]

gfs day 10 not looking so crazy ?

 

like i said earlier, this evolution is expected but not until later week 2. the current cold spell accelerated its onset ahead of the ens prediction. same again or ops being over aggressive with the solution ?

I would normally say ops being over progressive but the fact that both gfs and ecm ops go down the same path has me thinking they might be on to something.

[Mr Frost]

Just taken a look at the latest output. Goes to show how poor this winter has been for the coldies as people on here are getting excited about northwesterlies. I am hoping for more amplification to the north and North East which hopefully will bring true winter weather from the east.

Ah...but for coldies in North Western parts it has been a rather good Winter so far - 5th day with snow on the ground here with a little dusting to top it up tonight. December was alright here also.

Not too shabby at all, especially after reading posts on here 10 days ago stating zonal all the way and temps just above average, :-)

Charts still show snow surprises throughout the rest of this month so good times for coldies all over the UK and Ireland hopefully.

And still all of Febuary to go - exciting times.

[fergieweather]

It's amazing how quiet this thread becomes as most dart off to the regional threads.

 

Still wondering whether there might be some surprise snow as a cold front clears se during Saturday, theres quite a steep temperature gradient suggesting that the precip has a chance of being caught up by some colder 850's behind the cold front.

Hi Nick, we're hopeful it shouldn't be an issue for UK. Certainly snow showers likely into NW (some feeding further southwards) on Saturday, but luckily the heavier frontal PPN looks to be all entrained within milder 'slice', with WBFL's (attached, 12z UKMO-GM) up at 600-800m+. However, it could yield a significant freezing rain hazard on crossing away from the UK into the continent.

[nick sussex]

Hi Nick, we're hopeful it shouldn't be an issue for UK. Certainly snow showers likely into NW (some feeding further southwards) on Saturday, but luckily the heavier frontal PPN looks to be all entrained within milder 'slice', with WBFL's (attached, 12z UKMO-GM) up at 600-800m+. However, it could yield a significant freezing rain hazard on crossing away from the UK into the continent.

Thanks Ian . I suppose it does depend on how quickly the precip clears, the 850's behind are really quite cold for the set up. The cold in relation to this seem to have been upgraded over the last few days as the outputs have slowed that eastern USA low.

 

Could be quite a sharp frost especially towards the south and se as the winds ease on Saturday night.Winds look like freshening later on towards the north.

Edited January 20, 2015 by nick sussex

[The Enforcer]

Hi Nick, we're hopeful it shouldn't be an issue for UK. Certainly snow showers likely into NW (some feeding further southwards) on Saturday, but luckily the heavier frontal PPN looks to be all entrained within milder 'slice', with WBFL's (attached, 12z UKMO-GM) up at 600-800m+. However, it could yield a significant freezing rain hazard on crossing away from the UK into the continent.

Thank you for the explanation, although I suspect most on here will not regard that as a fortunate situation.

[kold weather]

I think the models are trending towards cold zonality, just enough amplification for people further north and west to have snow chances. Turgid charts the further SE you go, but NW airflows rarely deliver in this neck of the woods bar the odd tail end of a streamer from the NW.

certainly a different winter for most than last year even if result is similar in terms of snow amount for a fair chunk of the country.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

OK sod this....below is what is on my mind....remember from my LRF 3-6 Feb... Apogee and full moon, high impact weather period.  Apogee and Full moon were more impactual this month so this is what I generally anticipate....LOOK at P9.... 

 

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20150120/12/slp-360.png

 

Get in there!  Let's have it

 

BFTP

Edited January 20, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[chris55]

Both ECM and GFS looking "unusual" towards day 10. Im liking it though, a big Euro trough is the overwhelming signal. When a strong signal like this becomes apparent in FI the detail surrounding will obviously change but the overall signal is a good one for potential colder conditions.

 

[KTtom]

All we need now is the Siberian high to edge westwards over the Euro trough and Net-Weather have nailed their monthly forecast

[bluearmy]

Not the worst day 10 mean considering where the NWP was only yesterday. one assumes that the pendulum must swing back a bit tomorrow as if it doesn't and begins to solidify around this solution, our next hunt for snow will begin as soon as the current one ends!

[steveinsussex]

Hi Nick, we're hopeful it shouldn't be an issue for UK. Certainly snow showers likely into NW (some feeding further southwards) on Saturday, but luckily the heavier frontal PPN looks to be all entrained within milder 'slice', with WBFL's (attached, 12z UKMO-GM) up at 600-800m+. However, it could yield a significant freezing rain hazard on crossing away from the UK into the continent.

Freezing rain for which areas Ian??

[Hotspur62]

All we need now is the Siberian high to edge westwards over the Euro trough and Net-Weather have nailed their monthly forecast

Yeah and the bl--dy AH to do one Westwards and we would be in business!!

[Ali1977]

Looking at the models today there is good reason to believe by end of the next week we have some very good snow opportunities, in February a Nw'ly flow can still produce snow at any altitude if sustained for a few days.

[seaside 60]

Freezing rain for which areas Ian??

Think he means when it leaves the UK, into FRance, Belgium etc as temps lower there.

[steveinsussex]

Think he means when it leaves the UK, into FRance, Belgium etc as temps lower there.

 

 

Thank goodness  for that

[bobbydog]

Hi Nick, we're hopeful it shouldn't be an issue for UK. Certainly snow showers likely into NW (some feeding further southwards) on Saturday, but luckily the heavier frontal PPN looks to be all entrained within milder 'slice', with WBFL's (attached, 12z UKMO-GM) up at 600-800m+. However, it could yield a significant freezing rain hazard on crossing away from the UK into the continent.

 

 

 

 

luckily?? luckily???? you are saying "luckily" no snow??  have you learned nothing from this forum ian??!!!  

Edited January 20, 2015 by bobbydog