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Model Output Discussion - 16th Jan 12z onwards - Smile While You Post!


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK

Ah yes the The ECM 32 dayer the same model that had an extreme high pressure anomaly over Greenland for January back in late December.

The words Chocolate and fireguard spring to mind.

Here is the SLP anomaly forecast for current period, from EC Monthly prognosis of the 29-12-14 run. It continued the theme of cyclonicity to NW/N. There was never a compelling signal for strong heights over Greenland, certainly not in any of the runs I recall (I saw each since winter began). Where did you see that?

post-15852-0-03373900-1421439799_thumb.p

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Looking at the ECM eps, seems the second trough will drop just to our east as per the op. given that the current op modelling is following the mean, why think its wrong on the second. of course, the modelling can still correct west. The odds are that what the ECM shows tonight will not be too far away.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The ECM postage stamps at T120hrs hardly inspire confidence that the models have a clue as to whats going on:

 

post-1206-0-76961900-1421439970_thumb.gi

 

Too many options to choose from at a relatively short timeframe, I wouldn't bother taking much notice of the ECM mean this evening as that will give a distorted picture given so many options are on the table.

 

The ECM spreads are not without interest, however the postage stamps have everything from nw, westerly to troughing sitting north/south through the UK. Until we know what option is correct then its difficult to judge how the pattern could evolve.

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall in particular but most aspects of weather, hate hot and humid.
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset

Here is the SLP anomaly forecast for current period, from EC Monthly prognosis of the 29-12-14 run. It continued the theme of cyclonicity to NW/N. There was never a compelling signal for strong heights over Greenland, certainly not in any of the runs I recall (I saw each since winter began). Where did you see that?

 

Hi Ian It was in a tweet from a fellow professional meteorologist!

 

Still all water under the bridge now.  

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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll

Has this very "popular" post been responded to by forum hosts or moderators? If it has , the response has been lost ( to me) in the jumble of the preceding posts to this post. 

 

It seems to me that requests like this only surface when snow is in the forecast - people wanting information on details that are impossible to give at any longer than 48 hours max. Perhaps a short term snow specific model thread would help the discussion to steer in the desired way.

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Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK

Hi Ian It was in a tweet from a fellow professional meteorologist!

 

Still all water under the bridge now.

Indeed. No worries...I was just curious! It goes without saying we don't slavishly follow EC Monthly as 'gospel'. Always critically scrutinised alongside GloSea5.

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Posted
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but boringly hot
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl

possibly not the place to post but i'd love a thread on saying what will happen...

 

Not wanting to take the thread further off topic but there is a 15 day weather forecast option on this site or news media every 30 min. I think most know that this thread is for discussing future trends rather than imminent forecasts which I tend to turn to the regional threads for so I think there are more than enough threads already to choose from and threads available including jargon busting threads.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

From the looks of things big uncertainties in nedium term due to exact developments of complex lows.

Longer term it does seem like the jet fires back up and forces any high to the SE. I wouldnt go as far as to say we are going back to zonality, but westerlies look likely to spread back in by 240hrs. Lots could happen before then.

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Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall in particular but most aspects of weather, hate hot and humid.
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset

Indeed. No worries...I was just curious! It goes without saying we don't slavishly follow EC Monthly as 'gospel'. Always critically scrutinised alongside GloSea5.

 

Quite so Ian. It will be interesting to see how things pan out after the current colder spell of weather, I really thinks at the moment anything beyond seven days has to be taken with a large pinch of salt rather like you suggested the other night regarding a quick Atlantic return.

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Posted
  • Location: South Croydon
  • Location: South Croydon

I'm less certain. The ECM strat forecasts are interesting at the moment - from 100hpa all the way up they are forecasting the centre of the vortex to transfer to the Siberia with a renewed warming over the US. These strat forecasts we all know are not the be all and end all at tropospheric level BUT following them closely for a couple of winter seasons now has led to a sense from me they they are a good guide to where most energy is likely to sit. The pattern may well flatten out but it would not be the first time that GFS has overcooked energy coming through the atlantic, and it does rather run counter to the vortex pattern - assuming ECM has it right. 

 

There will be other factors leaning on medium range development, but from that strat profile the possibility of high pressure to the NE retrogressing westwards against an atlantic that is still relatively quiet is there. There is a marked signal at 100hpa for low pressure over western Europe to remain in situ - if high pressure gets any kind of hold over Eastern Scandy then I think these sliders may continue to be around for a while... and if the block strengthens and backs west as the vortex relocates to Siberia then we end up in a very good place for a longer spell of interest. Not deep cold - but cold enough.. and with lows bumping against a block growing in strength.

 

I'm actually as optimistic about the medium term as I have been for 2 winter years... and that is on the back of being pretty gloomy at the "failed" SSW a week or so ago. Just shows that 7 days is an age in weather terms, and people writing anything off beyond 168 today need a new brain.

True that the GFS has overcooked the westerly progression in the past but remember this is the new model.  It remains to be seen if it shares this bias with its predecessor.  

 

I keep making this mistake myself especially when looking at the ensembles - then remembering that essentially they are now from a different model.

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham, Worcs, Albion
  • Location: Evesham, Worcs, Albion

 I think surprises in the model outlook will make People Smile :D  :D :D  

 

Moreover, I think actual developments - regardless of what one model run or another, shows, will make people smile.  Though of course, not everyone.  This is after all Britain!

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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll

Ah yes the The ECM 32 dayer the same model that had an extreme high pressure anomaly over Greenland for January back in late December.

The words Chocolate and fireguard spring to mind.

 

With the polar vortex being bounced and stretched around in all sorts of different ways, I think that this winter is one where  anything beyond about 7 days really is fantasy forecasting.

 

Hi mcweather, - did you know that the EC32 has a verification page where we can look back at the previous forecasts?

 

Have a look; it does much better than you give credit for. Maybe interpretation is the issue in some of the bad press it gets.

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/mofc/verification/anomaly/anom_grp/vanomaly!temperature!Europe!mofc!2!anomaly!20150105!/

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Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness

It seems to me that requests like this only surface when snow is in the forecast - people wanting information on details that are impossible to give at any longer than 48 hours max. Perhaps a short term snow specific model thread would help the discussion to steer in the desired way.

I think the default response is to use the regional threads for this and I agree with this for most locations as they usually contain pleasant discussions, with little requirement for mod intervention. However, there will be places like where I live that don't easily fit into any particular region. Although best described as Central Southern England, this is grouped with South-West, which means that the debate is usually dominated by the nice people living in and around Bristol and to the west of there. Depending on the direction a weather event is coming from, CSE can be more closely related to what is happening in the Midlands or in the South-East than the South-West. On balance, I probably would support a short-range model thread <5days to focus on detail and a mid-long range model thread >5days to focus on trends.

Edited by The Enforcer
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Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire

True that the GFS has overcooked the westerly progression in the past but remember this is the new model.  It remains to be seen if it shares this bias with its predecessor.  

 

I keep making this mistake myself especially when looking at the ensembles - then remembering that essentially they are now from a different model.

 

The GEFS Ensembles, until later this year, are the old version. It's only the op. run that has been upgraded so far.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

What a joke these are over last 24 hrs or should i say the OP

 

pluim_06260_0_12_60.png

 

 

 

00z

pluim_06260_0_00_60.png

Edited by winterof79
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Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall in particular but most aspects of weather, hate hot and humid.
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset

Hi mcweather, - did you know that the EC32 has a verification page where we can look back at the previous forecasts?

 

Have a look; it does much better than you give credit for. Maybe interpretation is the issue in some of the bad press it gets.

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/mofc/verification/anomaly/anom_grp/vanomaly!temperature!Europe!mofc!2!anomaly!20150105!/

 Thanks Gael will take a look.

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Posted
  • Location: blackburn
  • Weather Preferences: heavy snow/ heatwaves
  • Location: blackburn

possibly not the place to post but i'd love a thread on saying what will actually happen in words that people that don't understand the models and their individuals runs say.

 

for example

 

'it looks like the north will be wet, midlands dry and south west dry'

 

rather than

 

'there is a shortwave that may effect the scandi high and a reload of the zonal mild pattern developing in the atlantic..

 

Edited by chicken soup
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Posted
  • Location: South Croydon
  • Location: South Croydon

The GEFS Ensembles, until later this year, are the old version. It's only the op. run that has been upgraded so far.

Yes that's what I meant.  Sorry if my post confused.  What I meant was you can't use the ensembles to add support to the GFS main run at the moment.  I think it a third quarter update on the ensembles.

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

Normally when you get a difference of opinion in the outputs regarding Europe there is a clear difference in the USA.

However if you look across all the outputs they are indeed very similar in terms of the overall pattern, all have the low in the ne USA, all have a shortwave running east from the central USA which then phases with this.

There are some smallish differences with the ne USA low in terms of placement/amplitude and depth, the bigger difference is over southern Greenland with the depth of the low there.

If you want to be encouraged that the ECM/UKMO might be wrong NCEP have not accepted those as the definitive answer for that ne USA low, indeed the inference you can take from the New York state discussion is that they might prefer the GFS/GEM. Anyway heres the pertinent part of that discussion;

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

STILL A VERY DIFFICULT CALL FOR THE STORM SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE GGEM...NAM AND GFS ALL HAVE THE STORM AS A NEAR MISS WHILE THE

ECMWF CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE FA...PARTICULARLY THE EASTERN THIRD OF

THE FA WITH FAIRLY HEAVY QPF. RATHER THAN TOTALLY DISMISS THE ECMWF

WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS WEST AND LIKELY POPS ACRS THE ERN THIRD OF

THE FA.

THE ONLY AGREEMENT AMONGST

ALL THE MODELS SEEMS TO BE THAT THE MODELS TRACK AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY

ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST US ON MONDAY WITH A

SURFACE LOW MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

WHERE THIS LOW ENDS UP IS AN EDUCATED GUESS AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

We can add this as a bit of hope as if these professionals are not sure and bbc weather certainly not 100% Helen willets unsure although they given ideas.

So all in all I think this weekend is a pivotal point to where we might be heading in the mid term certainly knife edge.

As I've said I don't hold much hope for us on the sunny Costa del south coast but would certainly like to see the pattern evolve into something for everyone although there's a lot of excitement for most of the uk.

But we will have frost here chilly clean air I must not give up hope I really do feel there are some positives to be taken even if it's a cold snap because winter can have a sting in its tail if it takes that long !.

But by god are some going to have fun if cold is your thing.

Although there's certainly a split with the models and because of this Id say 50/50 if a prolonged spell of cold is going to happen.

If not I think a return to pm air certainly don't see long drawn southwesterlys.

It would help if we had a clearer indication where the mjo is heading.

Oh well not to worry across the pond there uncertain and over here were uncertain so no need to knee jerk and kick my xbox up in the air lol

And Nick keep up the good work fella your posts in here are a valued input by many

Edited by emotional rollercoaster
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

The ECM postage stamps at T120hrs hardly inspire confidence that the models have a clue as to whats going on:

attachicon.gif120.gif

Too many options to choose from at a relatively short timeframe, I wouldn't bother taking much notice of the ECM mean this evening as that will give a distorted picture given so many options are on the table.

The ECM spreads are not without interest, however the postage stamps have everything from nw, westerly to troughing sitting north/south through the UK. Until we know what option is correct then its difficult to judge how the pattern could evolve.

I note that the Bay of Biscay low at T120 (which both op and mean went for yesterday) has been completely dropped by the end members

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Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!

I think the default response is to use the regional threads for this and I agree with this for most locations as they usually contain pleasant discussions, with little requirement for mod intervention. However, there will be places like where I live that don't easily fit into any particular region. Although best described as Central Southern England, this is grouped with South-West, which means that the debate is usually dominated by the nice people living in and around Bristol and to the west of there. Depending on the direction a weather event is coming from, CSE can be more closely related to what is happening in the Midlands or in the South-East than the South-West. On balance, I probably would support a short-range model thread <5days to focus on detail and a mid-long range model thread >5days to focus on trends.

I was only thinking this today actually! That maybe it would help if there were 2 model threads so that those who don't want to view the long term made up tosh can avoid it and not get drawn onto the drama llama train. I was thinking something like 72 hours and under and 72 hours and above. But I guess the 5 days is good to - whatever is termed a "reliable" time frame I guess.

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