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Model Output Discussion - 16th Jan 12z onwards - Smile While You Post!


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Re the ukmo - I agree with Steve that it's difficult to take a model seriously that changes so dramatically in 12 hours but with sliders, anything is possible. There were eps members on the stamps offering this solution.

My point was that despite it looling poor, it might deliver a much better snow event to the uk than the slider was ever going to. Uppers behind the occlusion probably not too important Crewe and the a draw ahead of it ( se surface flow) mean that sub zero uppers all that's probably needed if the warm sector has completely gone by the time it comes through. Depends if that little low is on a triple point or just where the warm front has gone.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

GEM not too bad T84

 

gemnh-0-84.png?12

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Now that the Azores has yet again failed to ridge up to Greenland by the looks of it, flattening it away as much as possible would be the best option to get the lows near Greenland to be located further South and therefore slide under us. 

A decent snow event looks to still take place next week, thats the best thing about it, as thanks to this Northerly, the slider low is engaging all of the cold air placed over us. However, in long term reassurance, getting rid of that pesky Azores high and seeing more of a Southerly tracking jet stream would be the answer to leave room for expansion of heights to our North-East, thus sustaining the cold for longer.

We shall see soon if this happens or not. 

The best thing is, is that snow looks likely for a fair portion of the British Isles  :)  :clapping:

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

I've moved some posts into the moans/banter thread - posts literally just saying a run is 'poor' with no real discussion around that aren't model discussion, so are much better suited to the banter thread

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81281-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-autumnwinter-201415/

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Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire/Warwickshire/North Oxfordshire
  • Location: Worcestershire/Warwickshire/North Oxfordshire

Yesterday it was GFS that looked poor on 12z and UKMO looked better,now the other way round!!As others have said lets see what happens on weekend first as think NW areas of Britain will get some lovely wintery scenes as well as others with elevation in SW,Wales and Cen/South England with elevation from fronts moving across tonight/tomorrow. Would love that 25% chance of snow to verify on Sunday as as it stands this is about the only corner of Britain that hasn't seen snow for 22 months.

When the proper cold air arrives on Sunday, the models may have a better grip on what is happening.

At present the models are chopping and changing too much to be worth analyzing in detail.

 

What we do know is that it will be cold for the next 5 days at least.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

If anything the snow amounts have upgrade on the 12z for parts of the UK

 

00z and 06z

 

180-780UK.GIF?174-780UK.GIF?16-6

 

12z

 

168-780UK.GIF?16-12

 

Still a significant improvement on 12 months back

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)

Due to Model Volatility how about we just discuss Models upto T96 as anything after that is driving people nuts lol! All the experts are saying don't look past T72-Maybe lets heed their advice.?

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

GEM restricts any ppn to the SE goes old school trying to resurrect the Easterly. (at least briefly)

 

gemnh-0-120.png?12

 

NAVGEM the only model backing UKMO thus far, probably not the company UKMO wants to keep.

 

navgemnh-0-120.png?16-17

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow/Blizzards in Winter, Cool Summers. (I'm allergic to heat)!
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)

GFS Day 5...

 

gfs-0-120.png?12

 

UKMO Day 5...

 

UW120-21.GIF?16-17

 

GEM Day 5...

 

gem-0-120.png?12

 

What a mess it all is!!

 

If none of the Models know what's going to happen in 5 Days time, How the hell are 'we' supposed to know?

 

Now, where did i put that seaweed!?

Edited by SE Blizzards
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Posted
  • Location: Ramsgate,East Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: BEASTERLYS
  • Location: Ramsgate,East Kent.

GFS Day 5...

 

gfs-0-120.png?12

 

UKMO Day 5...

 

UW120-21.GIF?16-17

 

GEM Day 5...

 

gem-0-120.png?12

 

If none of the Models know what's going to happen in 5 Days time, How the hell are 'we' supposed to know?

 

Now, where did i put that seaweed!?

no 3 please (GEM)

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Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent

Changes at 72h and people bemoaning charts at 180. Classic,.

 

Like the UKMO a lot, we want a deeper low to dive into Europe initially to pump up the Eurasian high to edge it west.

 

Looks to be a better MLB on the UKMO.

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

Shanon is back, but I would add ; Would we be analysing the movement of a low pressure in so much detail if it was going to just bring rain?  Most of us probably don't even notice just how often the models are varying at such a short time frames as we are just glazing over the output looking for cold synoptics. 

 

FWIW my gut tells me that this coming week is just a taster, The atalntic may get in for a few days next week but it is only a matter of time before a major reload of NH blocking!

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

GEM decides to just add to the uncertainty

post-16336-0-53609800-1421426968_thumb.p

 

Ian F said earlier that some EC ENS members had us in a north westerly come friday, and that is what the UKMO +144 chart is now showing. Huge shift east at that timeframe though and probably just one of the many options possible for tuesday/wednesday. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.

In the short term I still think that little feature running across the South of the UK Sat night into Sun morning has potential to give a light covering. Just the DP's that are a little marginal, everything else seems to suggest at least a shot at some white stuff. Certainly the further North you are in Southern England. Fingers crossed for the folk in the South, we are certainly due a bit of luck. 22 months without such as a snow flake and counting!

Edited by Shrimper
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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

GFS Day 5...

 

gfs-0-120.png?12

 

UKMO Day 5...

 

UW120-21.GIF?16-17

 

GEM Day 5...

 

gem-0-120.png?12

 

If none of the Models know what's going to happen in 5 Days time, How the hell are 'we' supposed to know?

 

Now, where did i put that seaweed!?

 

 

NAVGEM also different but relatively similar to UKMO

 

navgem-0-120.png

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Posted
  • Location: East Anglia
  • Location: East Anglia

And the Gem has gone for the easterly, maybe it's right maybe it's wrong doesn't matter what is important that its wise not to look too far ahead, not to get carried away and not get despondent about synoptic patterns that may never happen.post-6751-0-59880200-1421427345_thumb.jp

 

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

Many moons ago there was a model called DWD which came out about now each day and was considered by some respectable posters as a model which offered pretty good indication of what we might expect from the ECM a couple of hours later.

I'm pretty sure it was replaced by the GEM, and I was wondering if any "Connection " between GEM and ECM had been observed.

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Posted
  • Location: SE Kent
  • Location: SE Kent

Unless there is a dramatic change in the modelling of the PV strengthening then I would say its a 70-30 probablility we will be in a westerly regime by the end of the working week of next.

 

Plenty still to keep us on our toes..but form horse does look like being a return to average conditions by end of next week..

Edited by DEYS(Kent)
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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

sorry maybe off topic, when the easterly failed in dec 2012 gp said it was caused by solar activity incease,look today how quiet the sun is with very little activity ahead i believe this will cause the jet stream to weaken and go south plus the opi and el nino are favouring colder february i do expect blocking to occur often now and will give us cold spell at short notice when models will struggle to know whats happening

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Posted
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, warm sunny summers,
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire

Changes at 72h and people bemoaning charts at 180. Classic,.

Like the UKMO a lot, we want a deeper low to dive into Europe initially to pump up the Eurasian high to edge it west.

Looks to be a better MLB on the UKMO.

I agree we want a deeper low as the the slider, but more than anything it would mean it has taken with it more energy from the PV chunk South of greenland thay its breaking away from, this would allow some heights from the azores to ridge over the top and link with the HP to our NE and less energy to our NW to flatten everything later next week. Looking at ensembles over the last couple of days this is where the longevity of our cold is made or broke from. ie T72 hours Edited by Nicholas B
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Many moons ago there was a model called DWD which came out about now each day and was considered by some respectable posters as a model which offered pretty good indication of what we might expect from the ECM a couple of hours later.

I'm pretty sure it was replaced by the GEM, and I was wondering if any "Connection " between GEM and ECM had been observed.

It's the GME

Hopefully no repeat by ecm later !

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Posted
  • Location: Fettercain/Edzell
  • Location: Fettercain/Edzell

Perhaps a fantasy island thread would eliminate a lot of these 50year predicted charts. If we kept this thread exclusively for model discussion concerning the next 5 days it would help enable a clearer picture for noobs like me and all longer term predictions go in the FI thread

I know this sort of post is discouraged on the MOD thread, (I have also used the fave facility!) but as a learner, i think this is an excellent idea.

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