Upcoming Cold Spell Discussion

[Jo Farrow]

Fax charts are showing occluded fronts slowly heading southover Scotland over the weekend. What weather is likely to be observed as the fronts pass?

 

Also I just realised that one appears to come to a halt over a line from Skye to Inverness and out into the firth on Saturday night...

They are usually just showing trough lines, so clusters areas of showers, often heavier. Their actual location shouldn't be taken that literally, they are just showing that there will be troughs in the flow. 

[Hairy Celt]

They are usually just showing trough lines, so clusters areas of showers, often heavier. Their actual location shouldn't be taken that literally, they are just showing that there will be troughs in the flow. 

 

Thanks!

[Ninman]

Fom a glass half full perspective the UK Met Office are advising of a wintry mix including snow for the next five days, any forecast after that time frame is just not worth considering unless disappointment and depression rock your particular boat,  but even in the extended time frame at the very least, includes freezing fog, severe frosts snow etc  etc.

 

Notwithstanding that at 11:08 today a level 3 out of 4 cold weather alert has been issued By the Met Office for some parts of the midlands and level 2 for other parts.

 

I would therefore contend that for the next 2 weeks at least but most probably longer a seriously wintry outlook is unfolding.

 

Do not understand that just because GFS suggests it otherwise, then is must be so.

 

Off to fetch skis and ice climbing gear out of the loft and pour over maps of peak district, lake district and Snowdonia.

 

Enjoy

 

To be honest I think the cold will fade from next weekend as the high pressure looks to go southwards and breaks from Scandi, allowing the Atlantic to have more of an influence. Still, a good week of cold weather and some snow though!

[Cloud 10]

You can tell a cold spell is here as Helen Willetts is featuring heavily in BBC forecasts,beaming from ear to ear telling us about such things as -10 minimums over the snow fields.

[Man With Beard]

Tomorrow = day one proper of our snowy spell, I imagine.

I'll kick off with some snowfall predictions by the end of the Saturday:

 

They both demonstrate potential for a dusting of snow in a number of places (e.g. East Anglia, NW Midlands, lots of Scotland) and considerably more over high ground.

 

NNM 0.05 has something a little more substantial for the midlands - perhaps 2cm - and interestingly the SW of Cornwall has something.

 

 

 

Will be interesting to check back to see if these models had a handle on things. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

If this isn't a snowstorm forecast, then I don't know what is:

 

Untitled.png

 

saw that in other thread, is that just for 93m asl? maybe it's because no hills to block it from you, my bbc graphics, hardly forecast anything

[feb1991blizzard]

Yep, though I do feel that it is a tad exaggerated.

 

Yes, I do laugh at those BBC forecasts sometimes, I would walk up the high street stark naked if that verified, the fact that it does say Heavy snow constantly for 15 hours would suggest feet of snow piling up, I take moderate PPN to mean between 4 and 8mm an hour so even that would give us a foot (at 2-4cm converted snow), unless of course it just happens to be heavily snowing bang on the hour every hour and just relents in between hour marks LOL.

Edited January 16, 2015 by feb1991blizzard

[Summer Sun]

No sign of the cold spell ending anytime soon looking at the beebs extended forecast, they're going for easterlies by the end of next week

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/30842988

[Snowyowl9]

I had amazing frosts from Dec 28th-31st, with snow on ground, there is a growing risk I think of the slider missing England, with Wales and Ireland getting snow, my location looks a bit East? but long way off yet

Only one frost here then which made the ground quite hard.

 

Just wondering the last time we saw a 'slide low' anchoring itself down across the spine of the country and then southwards as projected by the models - I'm scratching my head, quite a rare set up. It isn't a battleground set up where we have a large blocking high to the NE and a deep low to the SW with front edging eastwards and then either stalling like early Feb 96, moving east allowing atlantic in, or being forced to retreat SW/W again - Feb 78 a good example.

 

Can anyone post last time similar synoptics occurred.

 

 

 

 

Theres been quite a few 3 to 5 years ago I`m sure there was looking at the models then.

Something that was missing first 2/3 of the 00`s

[I remember Atlantic 252]

No sign of the cold spell ending anytime soon looking at the beebs extended forecast, they're going for easterlies by the end of next week

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/30842988

 

wonder when it was recorded? cos easterlies not being modelled now, not even a weak one, promising forecast but old?

[MP-R]

Saw that on the BBC weather maps certainly something to keep an eye on

 

 

Hmmm, the only problem I have with that map is that it will either be 5-6C or there will be snow as shown - not both.

[March Blizzard]

wonder when it was recorded? cos easterlies not being modelled now, not even a weak one, promising forecast but old?

It's only just recently been updated by the look of it. Encouraging?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

It's only just recently been updated by the look of it. Encouraging?

 

wrong I think, full model agreement now of less cold westerly air on Wed 21st, all it seems to be is leading edge snow, then rain for nearly all Wed, cannot see models shifting things miles west

[Daniel*]

It's only just recently been updated by the look of it. Encouraging?

MOGREPS might be showing something dissimilar - we will need to hear from fergie.

[J10]

wrong I think, full model agreement now of less cold westerly air on Wed 21st, all it seems to be is leading edge snow, then rain for nearly all Wed, cannot see models shifting things miles west

 

In the shirt term the front making slower progress eastwards with increased snow risk on Tuesday for Western areas, certainly compared to 12Hz, [GFS 18Hz]

 

But then milder from the west from Thursday.

 

However It does seem rather strange though that an up to date forecast shows an Easterly towards next weekend.

Edited January 16, 2015 by J10

[Great Plum]

The temperatures in that weather forecast looked way too mild to me - 6c in London on Tuesday and Wednesday? That's an ordinary January day!

[Ninman]

wrong I think, full model agreement now of less cold westerly air on Wed 21st, all it seems to be is leading edge snow, then rain for nearly all Wed, cannot see models shifting things miles west

 

The Models this morning are still showing the cold breaking down by the end of next week with temperatures looking to get in to double digits in the south by next weekend. I think this will end up being more of a cold snap than a cold spell.

[Great Plum]

The Models this morning are still showing the cold breaking down by the end of next week with temperatures looking to get in to double digits in the south by next weekend. I think this will end up being more of a cold snap than a cold spell.

The ECM shows the south east of England in -5 air at 192hrs this morning and is wonderfully poised to get the Scandi high into play... - that's 9 days away... The other models are giving a solid 6-7 days of cold currently, and this is day 2 of the cold spell - it sounds like a cold spell to me as per current modelling...

[Ninman]

The ECM shows the south east of England in -5 air at 192hrs this morning and is wonderfully poised to get the Scandi high into play... - that's 9 days away... The other models are giving a solid 6-7 days of cold currently, and this is day 2 of the cold spell - it sounds like a cold spell to me as per current modelling...

 

Yes in the next frame at 216 hours SE England is under +4 uppers with SW winds. It looks most models are in agreement of a breakdown of cold at some point between Friday and Monday. It didnt get below 0c here last night and it looks like we could squeeze out 5c today if it remains sunny so for me the cold spell/snap doesnt really get underway until tomorrow. Then if you believe the Met Office/BBC weather they have temps going back to 6c by Thursday, which sort of ties in with what most of the models are hinting at.

 

For me, my definition of a cold spell is day time temps not going above 3c and night time temps below freezing for at least a 5 day period, so looking at what is being forecast for my area, that would be about a 4-5 day period, which to me is more of a cold snap than a cold spell.

[Jo Farrow]

The snow mix for the SE on Sunday is being downplayed now, Heavy rain may be a problem for some Channel coast locations. There are still plenty of snow showers coming down in the NW flow this weekend, becomgin more northerly Sunday night into early Monday which means finally eastern England see wintry showers flowing down the North Sea coast - flurries for East Anglia, bit more for NE England possible

[Sara_south_yorks]

grrrr it has been snowing north south and west of me, and we miss out, kids are wanting their new trampoline up that they got for xmas and have been holding off incase of bucket loads of snow, haha, they might aswel have it up today as the Barnsley snow shield is fired up haha 

[Summer Sun]

Up-to Friday not a great deal of snow around going by the week ahead forecast though they are uncertain as to how significant a spell of snow could be as the Atlantic may break through turning things less cold during next weekend

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/30863531

[Man With Beard]

Snow tonight in the borders and in the south on the NNM (snow moves across N England later though looks marginal on low ground)

 

Snow showers coming in off the east coast on Sunday night (though rain on the coast)

 

 

 

It also has Tuesday in range now: by lunchtime, a band of snow moving through Wales and some northern areas in a SE direction

 

[Ninman]

Another 6c here today with a couple of rain showers after a light frost. Still waiting for this cold snap to make its presence felt. Temps here are forecast to drop a few degrees tomorrow through to the weekend with a bit of snow so hoping that will materialise. The last few days have been 2-3c warmer than was forecasted.

[h2005__uk__]

I've got a bit lost in the model thread over the last few days!

 

Am I right in saying that the basic outlook at the moment is that the cold snap will be ending (for now) towards the end of the coming week, and in the meantime there won't be much snow (if any) for the south-east?