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I always find these borderline setups make for compulsive chart watching.

A cold airmass over the UK with the Atlantic fronts coming against this and the resultant snowfall for some.

A forecasting nightmare right up to the last minute but really makes for a vibrant forum and a period of real interest in every chart run.

 

A cold week to come countrywide that's for sure-real Winter at last.

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I always find these borderline setups make for compulsive chart watching.

A cold airmass over the UK with the Atlantic fronts coming against this and the resultant snowfall for some.

A forecasting nightmare right up to the last minute but really makes for a vibrant forum and a period of real interest in every chart run.

 

A cold week to come countrywide that's for sure-real Winter at last.

Yeah totally agree with the above. Think you could be in a good position for first slider.From past experiences and current modelling think Midlands could get substantial snowfall.Think it may stretch as far South and West to counties like Bucks,Oxfordshire but anyone further East will either stay dry or just see light rain /Sleet. Thereafter everything up for grabs.It will be a case of watching Forecasts every few hours as I think things could and probably change quickly.

 

BTW be interesting to see how busy this thread gets or if the MOD thread continues to go beserk if/when cold spell develops lol!!

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Yeah totally agree with the above. Think you could be in a good position for first slider.From past experiences and current modelling think Midlands could get substantial snowfall.Think it may stretch as far South and West to counties like Bucks,Oxfordshire but anyone further East will either stay dry or just see light rain /Sleet. Thereafter everything up for grabs.It will be a case of watching Forecasts every few hours as I think things could and probably change quickly.

 

BTW be interesting to see how busy this thread gets or if the MOD thread continues to go beserk if/when cold spell develops lol!!

Yes the Midlands are often where the battleground is and that's why i find these scenarios so interesting.Often this is one of the best setups here  in the centre.We usually miss out on straight northerlies or easterlies-unless the latter is from a favourably positioned channel low.

It would be great if this pattern could evolve to a bitter easterly with plenty of snow showers off the north sea so more areas could have some snow if they miss out earlier.

As we get into next week hopefully with some snow about this thread along with the regionals  should become busier,maybe with some pics from the lucky ones. 

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Mild 'blip' didnt really turn up.

Currently on bus going home from work and we have a v squally sleet shower.

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All the cold is coming mostly from the west this weekened more snow showers in the west,then more NW by sunday.

Winds will drop off more to give a much better chance of more decent frosts which has been lacking so far.

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All the cold is coming mostly from the west this weekened more snow showers in the west,then more NW by sunday.

Winds will drop off more to give a much better chance of more decent frosts which has been lacking so far.

 

I had amazing frosts from Dec 28th-31st, with snow on ground, there is a growing risk I think of the slider missing England, with Wales and Ireland getting snow, my location looks a bit East? but long way off yet

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Just wondering the last time we saw a 'slide low' anchoring itself down across the spine of the country and then southwards as projected by the models - I'm scratching my head, quite a rare set up. It isn't a battleground set up where we have a large blocking high to the NE and a deep low to the SW with front edging eastwards and then either stalling like early Feb 96, moving east allowing atlantic in, or being forced to retreat SW/W again - Feb 78 a good example.

 

Can anyone post last time similar synoptics occurred.

 

Its a very tough call at this very early stage to predict where the low will track, its depth, duration of time spent over the country and where frontal activity will be positioned, but its a very exciting interesting set up.. full of snowy promise for some.

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Latest from Fergie in Model thread;

 

A mixed bag of EC clusters.... any pronouncements of a secure and swift return to 'mild' conditions need to be taken with pinch of salt. Meanwhile, nearer-term focus needs to be on the late Sat-Sun high WBPT plume curving atop the low running off down into Biscay. *Could* get interesting on N flank of this feature, but wide spread in PPN envelope (e.g. MOGREPS has this anywhere from N France to S Midlands!!)..

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Waiting for the cold air to fully arrive in Brighton today. Currently 4C under an anvil with light rain and -3C 850's - was a hint of sleetiness on drive to work - that is the best I can report in the last two winters!

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Cold weather alert extended to 12:00 on Tuesday east and west midlands upgraded to level 3

 

Current alert level: Level 3 - Cold Weather Action

 

Issued at: 0818 on Fri 16 Jan 2015

 

There is a 90% probability of severe cold weather/icy conditions between 0800 on Friday and 1200 on Tuesday in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.

 

England is likely to endure colder than average conditions over the weekend period, and days either side. Widespread overnight frosts, locally severe, will be the main contributor to low temperatures. Some wintry precipitation can be expected for most areas too, mostly in the form of scattered showers, leading to lying snow and icy stretches in places. There is also currently an uncertain risk of locally significant snowfall for parts of southeast England later on Sunday, and also for central parts of England on Tuesday. Please stay in touch with the weather forecast for latest developments.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

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England is likely to endure colder than average conditions over the weekend period, and days either side. Widespread overnight frosts, locally severe, will be the main contributor to low temperatures. Some wintry precipitation can be expected for most areas too, mostly in the form of scattered showers, leading to lying snow and icy stretches in places. There is also currently an uncertain risk of locally significant snowfall for parts of southeast England later on Sunday, and also for central parts of England on Tuesday. Please stay in touch with the weather forecast for latest developments.

 

 

Updated Cold Alert warning from METO today, which shows it is definitely going to be a lot colder and there will be the chances of snow - starting today for some - for many. There is no reason to be disheartened by the overnight runs - things can/will change by todays. Regardless, lets get the cold first and any chance of ppn (which will be snow) will come - people never learn on here, there is a lot to be cheerful about this morning!  :)

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I love snow too .. and it's lying all around me :) .. winter wonderland in Norn' Ireland .. :)

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 As it stands for Sunday

 

Looking at the Fax chart for Sunday I would put the risk zone of precipitation south of the Wash through to Bristol and dropping to Plymouth - further north and west is likely to be too far away of the occlusion as shown below.

 

post-4523-0-80782100-1421398956_thumb.gi

 

Any snow is probably most likely north of the 528dam line - I would have North downs Surrey Hampshire and Dorset as possibly favoured North Kent and South Essex and London in the zone as well. - around the purple dashed line ( -5C 850) on the ECM Icelandic precip chart.

 

post-4523-0-25794400-1421399523_thumb.pn

 

Temps

post-4523-0-35056400-1421399127_thumb.pn

 

dew points are not too dissimilar to temps.

 

Interesting to see where the occlusion is forecast to lie tomorrow.

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The GFS 18Z puts the main snowstorm in the early hours of Tuesday. The band of snow appears to almost stall and becomes very slow-moving, meaning that some areas could see snow falling for upto twelve hours, possibly even longer! The snow depths also don't look bad either.

 

attachicon.gif0000.png attachicon.gif0300.png attachicon.gif0600.png attachicon.gif0900.png attachicon.gif1200.png attachicon.gif1500.png

 

attachicon.gifSnowdepth.png

It certainly is looking great for those in the North and myself particular here in South Yorkshire! :) 

 

last year was a poor winter for 90% of us but it does look like winter is bringing us a nice surprise  :yahoo:  :yahoo:  :yahoo:  :yahoo:

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The Met. Office model is causing more concerns for Sunday with the band of heavy rain and possible snow over southern Britain. Still large uncertainties, but at T+48 and potentially affecting SE England (even if it is just the weekend) something to watch (and no doubt a forecasting headache)

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I was just thinking what a great time for forecasters given the current synoptics. And if problems appear too complex there is always the MOD thread as backup.

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I was just thinking what a great time for forecasters given the current synoptics. And if problems appear too complex there is always the MOD thread as backup.

all the answers are there

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The Met. Office model is causing more concerns for Sunday with the band of heavy rain and possible snow over southern Britain. Still large uncertainties, but at T+48 and potentially affecting SE England (even if it is just the weekend) something to watch (and no doubt a forecasting headache)

 

Saw that on the BBC weather maps certainly something to keep an eye on

 

Untitled35324.png

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Fom a glass half full perspective the UK Met Office are advising of a wintry mix including snow for the next five days, any forecast after that time frame is just not worth considering unless disappointment and depression rock your particular boat,  but even in the extended time frame at the very least, includes freezing fog, severe frosts snow etc  etc.

 

Notwithstanding that at 11:08 today a level 3 out of 4 cold weather alert has been issued By the Met Office for some parts of the midlands and level 2 for other parts.

 

I would therefore contend that for the next 2 weeks at least but most probably longer a seriously wintry outlook is unfolding.

 

Do not understand that just because GFS suggests it otherwise, then is must be so.

 

Off to fetch skis and ice climbing gear out of the loft and pour over maps of peak district, lake district and Snowdonia.

 

Enjoy

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It certainly is looking great for those in the North and myself particular here in South Yorkshire! :)

 

last year was a poor winter for 90% of us but it does look like winter is bringing us a nice surprise  :yahoo:  :yahoo:  :yahoo:  :yahoo:

The next few days do look like bringing more chance of snow showers, which continues to be for N and W Britain , and N.Ireland where there has been plenty of snow showers already. S and E Britain are more sheltered but there are a few hiccups showing within the 5 day period to keep interest for all

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Fax charts are showing occluded fronts slowly heading southover Scotland over the weekend. What weather is likely to be observed as the fronts pass?

 

Also I just realised that one appears to come to a halt over a line from Skye to Inverness and out into the firth on Saturday night...

Edited by Hairy Celt

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