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Model Output Discussion - 14th Jan 12z Onwards


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I'm fairly certain when Frosty see's this chart:     He's going to be outside doing a lot of this:  

My last post this morn as I'm fed up with the misery in here already. The UKMO at 144 has the PF straddling the UK & a stalled frontal line delivering snow on it similar to feb 96 - It is more a

Or perhaps it means instead that some 'apparent' absentees are sitting back and looking at a very much bigger picture than simply building cyber snowmen to get knocked down, re-built, and then knocked

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

    Or maybe you head over to the learning area and learn how to read charts

    Re Sunday , it's beginning to look more interesting with fax's been the best guide we can look to now , also coming into the Euro4 range aswell so that will give us all a good idea of what to expect .

    have you seen how far north some of that precipitation gets from that low! ! Up to the north midlands! !
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  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands

    Although I understand the disappointment this morning and how some models seem to have reduced the quality of the Easterly flow next week (though some models, like the GFS, do still show an Easterly drift with -5*C, or slightly colder, 850 hPa temperatures getting into the mix at times), got to agree with Ajpoolshark and the gang that it's not worth throwing the toys out of the pram. In fact, I nearly got taken out by a big soft teddy in here. So please, some of you, keep those toys locked away in those darn push-chairs! Thank you! :good:

    Additionally can also understand how long it's been since some people have seen snow. But even if next week turns out to be one of those situations where the Easterly gets completely stamped-out and/or conditions don't turn out to be cold enough for snow for those that want it, doesn't mean it still can't happen. February could always bring something magical. These next few days, at least, should provide some wintry chances. Today, for example, should see a scattering of wintry showers being carried along a chilly Westerly flow, although with the bulk of these over Western and North-Western parts. Possible further wintry showers during the weekend and/or longer spells of rain, sleet and snow to wet the appetite of some of the cold and snow fans. :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    clearly a lot of uncertainty from the spreads as early as 96

    EEH1-96.GIF?16-12EEH1-120.GIF?16-12EEH1-144.GIF?16-12

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    attachicon.gifimage.jpg

    Perhaps the mean anomoly would help IDO?

    Throw the ECM day 10 anomaly in too

    EDH101-240.GIF?16-12

    Similar set up - high to the north east and south west, low pressure over Europe and Greenland, so I would assume the continuation of low pressure draining into Europe though at this time the details of where cold and milder air would set up as the low moves south east is still up for grabs. Spreads show high uncertainty in how the low disrupts during the middle of next week still.

    Edited by Captain shortwave
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    Posted
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol

    Throw the ECM day 10 anomaly in too

    EDH101-240.GIF?16-12

    Similar set up - high to the north east and south west, low pressure over Europe and Greenland, so I would assume the continuation of low pressure draining into Europe though at this time the details of where cold and milder air would set up as the low moves south east is still up for grabs.

    Is keeping LP's heading into Europe important to continue the cold potential? (increases the chances of NE & E flow as they drop, slide, SE?) Thanks.

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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

    Throw the ECM day 10 anomaly in too

    EDH101-240.GIF?16-12

    Similar set up - high to the north east and south west, low pressure over Europe and Greenland, so I would assume the continuation of low pressure draining into Europe though at this time the details of where cold and milder air would set up as the low moves south east is still up for grabs. Spreads show high uncertainty in how the low disrupts during the middle of next week still.

    if you go according to that anomaly captain then to be fair it suggests sliding lows from the atlantic through the uk and into europe!!
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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Is keeping LP's heading into Europe important to continue the cold potential? (increases the chances of NE & E flow as they drop, slide, SE?) Thanks.

    Indeed that is the case. Going by the models and anomalies at face value I think we can come to two possible solutions for the 6-10 day range.

    Option one - The Azores and Scandi highs link up and put the UK under a settled and cold pattern with frost and fog becoming extensive.

    Shown generically by the GFS and GEM ops

    gem-0-168.png?00

    gfs-0-168.png?0

    I suspect there would still be a fairly slack north easterly for southern areas so maybe the south east corner could still pick up a few snow flurries.

     

    Option 2 - This is more the ECM route where we see no link up of heights and the next low slides south east during the later half of next week. The positioning of this would be up for serious debate but I would say the ECM is too far east (if this situation occurs).

     

    I am not seeing an Atlantic breakthrough as a done deal at all to be honest. The options above are the two most likely in my opinion and would continue the trend of below average temperatures, potentially till the end of the month.

    Ian F's post above pretty much sums this up.

    Edited by Captain shortwave
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    Posted
  • Location: crosshands south west wales 135ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather events and always love snow
  • Location: crosshands south west wales 135ft asl

    Morning all!

     

    Somthing im wondering about? is the gfs model??, if you view the gfs run now, i assume this is now what was a week ago the gfs para? 

             I seem to remember in previous setups like we have now, more often than not the gfs tended to have an eastern bias and would position systems further west as we approached T+0, also the model would try and bring the atlantic in about day 7/8.

     

    Surely we now dont know of any bias with the updated gfs? So how can we comment on what the model normaly does, as i have read in some previous posts....

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    Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .

    The trouble is with all this moaning.. as a newbie i have no idea what is going on... to me the models aren't as good as yesterday but there not rubbish by any stretch of the imagination.... 

     

    You may be a newbie, but that's spot on and that's the issue. What was looking a nailed on (Steve Murr's phrase) serious cold spell has downgraded so that it's now more marginal for some. As you rightly say, it's not rubbish by any stretch of the imagination. Some parts may well see snowfall. It's just that there was a very potent, severe, cold snap showing up and that has been downgraded to something still very good, but not quite so good.

     

    The ECM uppers are my biggest concern with that run. The ultra cold source in Scandinavia/Russia has been cut off and now significant chunks, especially southern Britain, come under much more marginality.

     

    What I think is key is whether the 0z suite of downgrades are the start of a trend, or a minor blip which can happen in a pattern change (see Ian F's comments that Abbie reposted). There was significant ensemble scatter off the GFS with the operational out on the mild side. Has it spotted a trend? Or just a blip? We will see.

     

    p.s. I do also think the comments about enjoying what we do get are absolutely right. It's still better than anything last year even prior to potential upgrades.

    Edited by West is Best
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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    Throw the ECM day 10 anomaly in too

    EDH101-240.GIF?16-12

    Similar set up - high to the north east and south west, low pressure over Europe and Greenland, so I would assume the continuation of low pressure draining into Europe though at this time the details of where cold and milder air would set up as the low moves south east is still up for grabs. Spreads show high uncertainty in how the low disrupts during the middle of next week still.

    Good post captain this should steady the ship and its the usual suspects that completely turn the model thread into a place for confusion this is in 12 hrs sometimes happens in 6 hrs !.

    As you can clearly see on these charts that captain has posted clear indications of slider continuation now if we take this at face value then the chances of more cold attacks are pretty much a cert the whole pattern is a massive headache for models as much as forecasters and ourselfs.

    And what with background singles like the mjo and some very interesting Arctic heights plus mlb split jet stream then the chances remain for a continuation of cold to colder setups !.

    Anyway cold upgrades expected by Sunday as the models get a better handle on low pressure placements.

    Considering a westerly polar flow that has been battering the uk with snowfall and has continued and is forecast to go Arctic maybe even Siberian air source !

    then I'd suggest that perhaps wait until the weekend to downgrade I'm pretty certain that upgrades are coming.

    and feb is looking blinding as I suggested at the start of the month!.

    in fact I said end of January but I was wrong it's mid jan and look what we have.

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    attachicon.gifimage.jpg

    Perhaps the mean anomoly would help IDO?

     

    Quite, my point was that the op showing HP sat over the UK was an outlier, and the mean anomaly shows that. That being said the mean is not very helpful as clustering are more useful . The D7 clusters on the GFS are trending towards the trough being split by pressure from the NE and SW and this morning 65% clusters go this way with 35% (down from 45% yesterday) keeping the Euro trough at that time:

     

    post-14819-0-58409000-1421398789_thumb.p

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    Posted
  • Location: Shorne West, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Sun in summer, Snow in Winter
  • Location: Shorne West, Kent

    Not sure if this has already been posted but the latest AER report was published yesterday ( interesting that they confirm the recent warming as a SSW ).

     

    Summary......

     

    A positive AO will continue for the next week along with a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Meanwhile, higher in the atmosphere, the polar vortex remains perturbed following a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event which peaked a week ago.  Further perturbation of the polar vortex is predicted, at least in the near term.

    • Extreme cold over the Central and Eastern US in the near term should relax to seasonably mild by the end of the week into early next week. Overall mild temperatures will continue across northern Eurasia including Europe.
    • The downward propagation of negative AO conditions in the stratosphere should begin to influence the tropospheric circulation in about a week. Therefore, we anticipate positive AO conditions to trend more negative the second half of January. This will promote more high latitude blocking and colder temperatures hemispherically for the remainder of the month.  The biggest change should be felt across northern Eurasia including Europe, where temperatures should turn significantly colder from what has been observed so far this month.
    • Prospects for a negative AO remain fairly high into February given the recent and ongoing weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, though some uncertainty on timing and the eventual strength of the negative AO state still remains.

     

    full report here: https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    Plenty of fronts push south over the UK  on Sunday

     

    fax60s.gif?1

     

    EURO4 showing this up well

    15011800_1600.gif

    Edited by winterof79
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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

    I would not rule out a easterly yet, particularly for the southern half of the UK. Still to be resolved is the exact position of the wave close to SE England later this weekend. Rain and snow fall could be a feature in the location and also into Northern France.  This feature may also have the effect of holding back the occluding fronts progress  eastwards from the Atlantic early part of next week. In fact it may even struggle to yet much into the mainland. So a flow from the continent may well evolve in latter runs.

     C

    Edited by carinthian
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    Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft

    The overnights are a major downgrade for the SE and indeed much of the south sadly. Would be a cold rain fest as progged. Not quite enough cold air pumping in from the NE.

     

    That all said, the 00z spoiling the 18z's party is standard fare. Let's see what this morning's offerings hold. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    A quick look at yesterdays EC32 update.

     

    The T240 anomaly has Azores ridge west of the UK with Euro trough southern Europe. Strong ridge Eastern Pacific with trough eastern North America. On the surface Azores ridge for the UK.

     

    Thereafter some changes. By T432 trough Greenland orientated SE over the UK into Europe with the Atlantic HP pushed south. Surface low Iceland bringing unstable and cold NW to UK in a general zonal flow.

     

    Last couple of weeks generally the same with the trough to the NW but more influence from the Azores HP at the end.

     

    Temps below average.

    Edited by knocker
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    Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .

    Tip: Those of you who cling to every frame may have noticed that with the GFS parallel switch the T850hPa charts are around 2 frames earlier to appear than the T500's. 

     

    (I don't think this was the case before.)

     

    Edit. Lol as soon as I post that it stops happening  :oops:

    Edited by West is Best
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