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Model Output Discussion - 14th Jan 12z Onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    The ECM precipitation chart looks good for the south/SE from T36-T84 and matches up with the UKMO Fax charts. Whether this translates to snow at sea level remains uncertain:

     

    post-14819-0-15503500-1421392032_thumb.ppost-14819-0-63715900-1421392031_thumb.p

     

    Dry for most other places apart from the west coastal regions. The front on Tuesday appears to stall in the west and break up so potential for snow there. The far south also still at risk  of some snow:

     

    post-14819-0-11643400-1421392031_thumb.p

     

    The east on the ECM up till D6 looks dry but some disturbance may pop up.

    Edited by i'm dreaming of...
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    I'm fairly certain when Frosty see's this chart:     He's going to be outside doing a lot of this:  

    My last post this morn as I'm fed up with the misery in here already. The UKMO at 144 has the PF straddling the UK & a stalled frontal line delivering snow on it similar to feb 96 - It is more a

    Or perhaps it means instead that some 'apparent' absentees are sitting back and looking at a very much bigger picture than simply building cyber snowmen to get knocked down, re-built, and then knocked

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

    My last post this morn as I'm fed up with the misery in here already.

    The UKMO at 144 has the PF straddling the UK & a stalled frontal line delivering snow on it similar to feb 96 -

    It is more amplified at 144 than the ECM

    The ECM at 168 & 192 continues to slide lows into the UK -

    If the UKMO ran similar it would be even better

    IDO Your PTB comparison is cr*p lol it's nowt like it-

    If we suddenly think it's game over then we'll we may as choose another forum to post on

    I'm fed up with the moaning / downgrade this that & the other...

    Maybe someone should pick the bones out of the whole ECM run before all the lemmings jump of tower bridge...

    totally agree with you steve!! Ecm looks pretty good to me yeh might not be as showery as the last few runs but it looks like we will get more frontal snowfall and a stronger scandi high right to the end of the run!! Even the slider when compared to the deep low ot was showing 24 hours ago looks slacker and better! ! Ukmo is similar! ! But we really need gfs to back down!! Now comes the time whether the upgrade has made this model better! !
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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    It really is depressing sometimes when looking on this thread.

     

    It's 95% of the time always going to be knife edge stuff regarding rain/snow for this country. As for this cold spell, plenty of time for changes still, plenty of time for a few nice surprises too.

     

    Plenty to look forward to that's for sure.

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    Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

     The 00z suite, if taken for granted, is not as good as some before but it isn't disastrous and there is plenty of scope for improvements.

    Edited by Paul
    Removed the moaning about the moaning
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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

    ECM 0Z in its latter stages looks to me to show the largest extension of the Siberian high this winter thus far. I don't think it has been modelled that extensive at any stage.

    Totally agree and because of this, it is a huge improvement on last nights run.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire

    lol.....perhaps that is not a bad idea Steve, at least that way this thread wouldn't be polluted with some of the moaning posts in here this morning!

     

    I made the fatal mistake on waking this morning by jumping straight into this thread rather than having at look at the overnight outputs.

     

    firstly the GFS.....I've read members calling it not cold, a rain fest etc etc etc....really?.....looks damned cold to me, right out to T268, yes an easterly is watered down somewhat, but the easterly feed isn't lost to T192, that's 8 days away!! it's out in FI and besides, as you posted, we're then left in a frigid, stagnant cold pool from a UK high........A rain fest for this slider?......looks like some members have been looking at the 'pie in the sky' GFS ppn type charts again!......It's simple physics, T850's between 0c and -5c with dewpoints hovering around or below 0c.....that looks like that flakey, white rain to me for most!

     

    and the UKMO?....looks pretty good to me, and the ECM.....a little messy, but opportunities for battleground snow, certainly cold, with HP building to the NE at the end of the run.......if it's wintry and snowy you want, this morning's outputs are looking quite sexy IMO, if it's bitterly cold and dry that you want, the you're bonkers and  I'd recommend a holiday to the north pole!  :laugh:

    Lol I did exactly the same , went to the model thread and got bombarded by "downgrades, rain fest , it's all over posts " then looked at the models myself and saw things quite differently , the easterly certainly isn't there like it was , but we have stagnant cold air , with fronts and troughs straddling the country at nearly all time frames up to the t144 mark , the only way an easterly delivers to the majority Is if the air is at least -10 uppers crossing the North Sea , for most it's freezing but dry . Unless of course we have fronts pushing up from the south , but then its frontal snow and not as a result from the easterly itself .

    The ukmo looks snowy , and the ECM looks the same , maybe a brief milder blip at t168 , but when the models are struggling with what's 72hrs away why look in la la land ?

    I'm sure things will change again as ever it's a developing situation but the next 7 days at the very least look cold and snowy .

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    ECM 0Z in its latter stages looks to me to show the largest extension of the Siberian high this winter thus far. I don't think it has been modelled that extensive at any stage.

     

    That's right WH - I think this is more important to look at on future runs now to see if the trend carries on. You can see the Siberian High moving west quite a lot and pushing out any mild sectors, which will only be good for us in the long run.

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    lol.....perhaps that is not a bad idea Steve, at least that way this thread wouldn't be polluted with some of the moaning posts in here this morning!

     

    I made the fatal mistake on waking this morning by jumping straight into this thread rather than having at look at the overnight outputs.

     

    firstly the GFS.....I've read members calling it not cold, a rain fest etc etc etc....really?.....looks damned cold to me, right out to T268, yes an easterly is watered down somewhat, but the easterly feed isn't lost to T192, that's 8 days away!! it's out in FI and besides, as you posted, we're then left in a frigid, stagnant cold pool from a UK high........A rain fest for this slider?......looks like some members have been looking at the 'pie in the sky' GFS ppn type charts again!......It's simple physics, T850's between 0c and -5c with dewpoints hovering around or below 0c.....that looks like that flakey, white rain to me for most!

     

    and the UKMO?....looks pretty good to me, and the ECM.....a little messy, but opportunities for battleground snow, certainly cold, with HP building to the NE at the end of the run.......if it's wintry and snowy you want, this morning's outputs are looking quite sexy IMO, if it's bitterly cold and dry that you want, the you're bonkers and  I'd recommend a holiday to the north pole!  :laugh:

     

    Hi

    The GFS op has no support from its mean so signposting that outlier run is rather dubious:

     

    op: post-14819-0-87798400-1421393888_thumb.p  mean: post-14819-0-80908100-1421393896_thumb.p

     

    As for ECM from D8-10 in building heights again, well "fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me". ECM has proved beyond reasonable doubt that it's op past D8 in situations like this are of negligible value. We await the mean.

     

    UKMO at T144 sends the energy over the Scandi ridge allowing it to build from T120-T144. This is against its general easing east and no other model does this, ECM and GEFS mean ease that Scandi high east as the Atlantic moves in. As I have said that looks wrong and the GEFS only have a couple of members similar highlighting that.

     

    These are only my opinions on this one run and they can easily change. Yes a good 5 days at least of cold uppers and the potential for some snow somewhere so not all bad.

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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

    Ian fergie can hopefully enlighten us more on Tuesdays slider event!! Dont think he will say any different probably same as yesterday a midlands north and east snow event! ! Also has anyone taken a look at the ecm precipitation charts!! It brings some of the precipitation from that low down south on Sunday all the way up to the north midlands!! Dont think it was there yesterday!! Defo something to keep an eye on!! Upper air temps are around -5 to -7 aswell!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Leeds: 100m (328ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow.
  • Location: Bramley, Leeds: 100m (328ft)

    The trouble is with all this moaning.. as a newbie i have no idea what is going on... to me the models aren't as good as yesterday but there not rubbish by any stretch of the imagination.... for example the front across south east England hasn't shown up since today.... shows you what can change...

    can someone with a bit of sense show me or tell me what the hell the charts show as i am very confused?

    You don't need to be an expert to know cold air plus precipitation can equal snow.

    We have that, so the rest is in the short term detail. The people wanting snowmageddon are invariably disappointed.

    Edited by Barking_Mad
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    Posted
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy, wintry weather
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.

    ECM 0Z in its latter stages looks to me to show the largest extension of the Siberian high this winter thus far. I don't think it has been modelled that extensive at any stage.

     

    Was just about to comment on the very same Kevin. Far too much knee-jerk reaction yet again to overnight runs, in what is a very difficult pattern for models to accurately predict the way forward and no doubt there will be much chopping n'changing in future model output too.

     

    Looking as if our sector of the Atlantic/NW Europe will be the venue for a battleground scenario to develop between vying Atlantic and Continental air masses, with supremacy ebbing and flowing between the two, as we move through the 2nd half of January.

     

    But as WH suggests, the strengthening of the Siberian high, as depicted in the latter stages of 00z ECM, caught my eye too and is certainly an encouraging sign and something to monitor, as January progresses.

     

    Tom

    Edited by TomBR7
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    Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire

    Sound like we were promised caviar only to find out all we're getting now is fish eggs

    Or maybe you head over to the learning area and learn how to read charts

    Re Sunday , it's beginning to look more interesting with fax's been the best guide we can look to now , also coming into the Euro4 range aswell so that will give us all a good idea of what to expect .

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    Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

    Ian fergie can hopefully enlighten us more on Tuesdays slider event!! Dont think he will say any different probably same as yesterday a midlands north and east snow event! ! Also has anyone taken a look at the ecm precipitation charts!! It brings some of the precipitation from that low down south on Sunday all the way up to the north midlands!! Dont think it was there yesterday!! Defo something to keep an eye on!! Upper air temps are around -5 to -7 aswell!!

    Or it could end up another Wales snow event still a fair few possibilities..

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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

    Or maybe you head over to the learning area and learn how to read charts

    Re Sunday , it's beginning to look more interesting with fax's been the best guide we can look to now , also coming into the Euro4 range aswell so that will give us all a good idea of what to expect .

    SSib...it's just my way of saying that, for all the moaning going on, actually not too much has changed in the way of what should be looking forward to!

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