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Model Output Discussion - 14th Jan 12z Onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Huddersfield, 145m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Lots of snow, lots of hot sun
  • Location: Huddersfield, 145m ASL

    Ensembles all over the place by 96h and by 120 we have everything from the slider so far West it misses all the UK to a big fat flabby low to no slider at all!

    Take nothing for granted.

     

    Exactly, there is very little consensus even of the exact shape, intensity and direction of the 'trigger' slider low, so any solutions being served up after that timeperiod (i.e. T96 or so onwards) shouldn't be relied on. Better to concentrate on the nearer term, which has plenty to offer, and hold fire on any champagne popping regarding next week (at least in terms of IMBY snowfall).

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    I'm fairly certain when Frosty see's this chart:     He's going to be outside doing a lot of this:  

    My last post this morn as I'm fed up with the misery in here already. The UKMO at 144 has the PF straddling the UK & a stalled frontal line delivering snow on it similar to feb 96 - It is more a

    Or perhaps it means instead that some 'apparent' absentees are sitting back and looking at a very much bigger picture than simply building cyber snowmen to get knocked down, re-built, and then knocked

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm dry summers
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich

    well well well - An IMBY post from me....

     

    JMA in on the 18z.

     

    Possible Deep snow for Kent / East sussex & into Essex. from 72-84 - aligns with the EPS & MOGREPS plume -

     

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2015011518/J72-594.GIF?15-18   late evening sun-

     

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2015011518/J72-7.GIF?15-18  into -6 polar air.....

     

    S

    That ppn map has it stretching into Eastern parts of East Anglia too. I imagine this is going to be quite a headache for the forecasters!

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    Here are some stunnign charts from 18z ensembles.

     

    gensnh-19-1-162.pnggensnh-17-1-144.pnggensnh-15-1-144.pnggensnh-14-1-144.pnggensnh-12-1-144.pnggensnh-9-1-144.pnggensnh-7-1-150.pnggensnh-6-1-150.pnggensnh-2-1-150.png

     

    So after a cracking Op it produces worse set of ensembles for prolonged cold for some time.

    Anything could happen TBH.

    Edited by Mucka
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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Quite a few posts creeping in about snow prospects in certain parts of the country - please place such postings in the regionals and cold spell discussion, this thread is going to be very busy over coming days I imagine, lets keep it to the models so it becomes a manageable read...

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    Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL

    Pretty good looking charts of late, I'm going camping next week on the North Yorkshire moors lol. Taking my Subaru AWD legacy ,and my iPad,for more avid chart watching and rainfall radar, Eastern England looking good for snow from possibly Tuesday night into Wednesday,,and beyond imo, I would say pretty much anywhere could see snow next week,and even my southern friends in snow starved London will see a Good covering.,the website I'm looking at for GFS a, isn't going passed T+150 hrs.,

    Sorry of topic point taken,.

    Edited by sorepaw1
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    Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

    Glad you said that Mucka

    I was thinking exactly the same thing. They are really disappointing as a suite. At 180 hours its a 50 /50 split between a westerly and an easterly. The opp does still have support though.

    The trend today has been for a slow watering down, so tomorrow will probably be crunch time. Still some good charts tonight though and compared to this time last week things are certainly looking better!

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    Posted
  • Location: S East Wales
  • Location: S East Wales

    I and many others think Wales is also the part of the UK , Can you advise us if we are in for some snow or even sleet into the weekend and into next week , Thankyou . :cc_confused:

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    Posted
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm dry summers
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich

    Here are some stunnign charts from 18z ensembles.

     

    gensnh-19-1-162.pnggensnh-17-1-144.pnggensnh-15-1-144.pnggensnh-14-1-144.pnggensnh-12-1-144.pnggensnh-9-1-144.pnggensnh-7-1-150.pnggensnh-6-1-150.pnggensnh-2-1-150.png

     

    So after a cracking Op it produces worse set of ensembles for prolonged cold for some time.

    Anything could happen TBH.

    Some of those are pure filth! However, if we are in a Westerly flow with low heights to our North next Wednesday, I'll eat my hat.

    Someone said earlier that the GEFS were still based on the old GFS set up and at a much lower resolution; hopefully that means they are just tripe, but we should keep an eye out for changes in such a volatile setup.

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    Posted
  • Location: West Midlands
  • Location: West Midlands

    Here are some stunnign charts from 18z ensembles.

     

    gensnh-19-1-162.pnggensnh-17-1-144.pnggensnh-15-1-144.pnggensnh-14-1-144.pnggensnh-12-1-144.pnggensnh-9-1-144.pnggensnh-7-1-150.pnggensnh-6-1-150.pnggensnh-2-1-150.png

     

    So after a cracking Op it produces worse set of ensembles for prolonged cold for some time.

    Anything could happen TBH.

     

     

    lol could you actually show us some stunning charts please.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire

    Glad you said that Mucka

    I was thinking exactly the same thing. They are really disappointing as a suite. At 180 hours its a 50 /50 split between a westerly and an easterly. The opp does still have support though.

    The trend today has been for a slow watering down, so tomorrow will probably be crunch time. Still some good charts tonight though and compared to this time last week things are certainly looking better!

     

    The GEFS are still running the old version and are notably low in resolution in comparison, the only GEFS run I'd give any credence to is the control.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    Glad you said that Mucka

    I was thinking exactly the same thing. They are really disappointing as a suite. At 180 hours its a 50 /50 split between a westerly and an easterly. The opp does still have support though.

    The trend today has been for a slow watering down, so tomorrow will probably be crunch time. Still some good charts tonight though and compared to this time last week things are certainly looking better!

     

    I think we may have to wait longer than that but it is always nice to see the trend go the right way rather than not. As you say still some good runs as well.  :good:

     

     

    Some of those are pure filth! However, if we are in a Westerly flow with low heights to our North next Wednesday, I'll eat my hat.

    Someone said earlier that the GEFS were still based on the old GFS set up and at a much lower resolution; hopefully that means they are just tripe, but we should keep an eye out for changes in such a volatile setup.

     

    Yes that's true, I forgot about that. Good point well made. Hopefully the higher res will pay off over lower res numbers. 

     

    lol could you actually show us some stunning charts please.

     

    LOL Well they stunned me!  :shok:  ;)

     

    Central England.

     

    graphe3_1000_253_87___.gif

     

    We want to see that hump toward the end get ironed out, it ain't welcome!

    Edited by Mucka
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    Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

    The GEFS are still running the old version and are notably low in resolution in comparison, the only GEFS run I'd give any credence to is the control.

    Yep, I agree its not perfect (was aware) as its effectively like using the GEFS to assess the ECM run :-)

    Edit: Crikey, just seen Fergies post. That's a 'post and run for the hills' contribution :-)

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    Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

    Ensembles all over the place by 96h and by 120 we have everything from the slider so far West it misses all the UK to a big fat flabby low to no slider at all!

    Take nothing for granted.

     

    Like the Southern IMBY thread in here.

    Absolutely. A quick glance through what is normally the semi reliable timeframe is enough to remind us what a myriad of options lie on the table. Never mind 3-5 days, T-6 hours will quite feasibly be when some of the details will start to get shored up as these mesoscale features travel down over us. All we do know is that it is going to get cold and there will be snow. Good luck Ian!

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    ECM London ensembles out.

     

    ensemble-tt6-london.gif

    Edited by Mucka
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    Posted
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm dry summers
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich

    Yep, I agree its not perfect (was aware) as its effectively like using the GEFS to assess the ECM run :-)Edit: Crikey, just seen Fergies post. That's a 'post and run for the hills' contribution :-)

    You might do alright out of that Ian F post Jason! If it arrives on Sunday, give it a shove North would you? Cheers :)

    Lots to keep all of us (North and South) interested over the coming days; short notice snow could easily happen!

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    Posted
  • Location: caernarfon, Gwynedd
  • Weather Preferences: very cold or very hot
  • Location: caernarfon, Gwynedd

    PS Ditto re more marginal snow risk tonight-tomorrow on northern edge of convective cluster moving in from SW. Really needs 6-8mm p/hr to generate snow but it's plausible. Mendips for example, then Hants-Kent tomorrow.

    Regarding Tuesday and Wednesday ian what do Exeter expect percentage wise. Ie where will.the front stall and areas more prone to snow

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    Posted
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow and ice days
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex

    We are running with increased risk 2-5 cm snow having accumulated by Sunday afternoon approx N Kent/S London down WSW to Hants. Reasonable support now for this outcome between EC, UKMO-GM and E4.

    sorry if it's a daft question but are you suggesting rain or snow south east of this line?

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    Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

    You might do alright out of that Ian F post Jason! If it arrives on Sunday, give it a shove North would you? Cheers :)

    Lots to keep all of us (North and South) interested over the coming days; short notice snow could easily happen!

    Yep, don't get much more south Essex than Basildon :-)

    I'm keeping my fingers crossed as I think Essex & Kent will just get rain from the slider, or stay dry :-) There is still an easterly being shown though, so you might do ok if that verifies.

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    Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

    Well mogreps has that low anywhere from france to the south midlands! ! Dont be surprised to see it even further north on the morning runs!!

    All well and good but by virtue of it being more north the likelihood would be it would be deeper and with it more mixing and marginality. The snow band would potentially be less wide and whilst it may bring some a big dumping for those in the sweet spot, we ideally want it clearing sharpish off to our South / Southeast to aid longetivity of the cold spell

    Edited by s4lancia
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    Posted
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm dry summers
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich

    Yep, don't get much more south Essex than Basildon :-)I'm keeping my fingers crossed as I think Essex & Kent will just get rain from the slider, or stay dry :-) There is still an easterly being shown though, so you might do ok if that verifies.

    Yes, sliders often correct SW and I suspect we shall see that on the models in the coming runs. Wherever it goes initially, we certainly want that subsequent Easterly to set up though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)
  • Weather Preferences: Beginning with S ending with W ;)
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)

    Great news from Ian update ( sort of aligns to the raw JMA )

    anyway here is my forecast track of the low- I will update it with model forecast tracks tomorrow.....

    attachicon.gifUK MAP.png

    * Orange central line is my forecast track

    * Two outer orange lines are the cone ( northern & Southern extent

    * Inside the Blue lines is my forecast snow zone

    * Inside the red circle is my forecast sweet spot

    * Inside the lower red circle is the possible mixing zone ( rain sleet & snow)

    * The pink lines highlights the probably adjustments- higher probability it will be to the left of my line if anywhere....

    regards

    Steve

    Common feature with sliders in past years I think is that closer time the slider becomes good/more favourable for C&S England/Wales, not sure us Scots do well in these situations. Edited by Bullseye
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