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Model Output Discussion - 14th Jan 12z Onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm dry summers
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich

    Yes- sadly im sceptical it will reach you. Or me. - I expect it all to elongate into 3 vortices & slide across the IOW SSE- that's my forecast trajectory.

    But we live in hope- its a fine line........

    Great this far for wales & the NW & eventually the NE-

    S

    Yes I agree, history suggests these don't get that far East. Fingers crossed we will still get the resulting Easterly shown even if the original ppn doesn't make it here? That would be far more fruitful for us over and down here! Edited by Long haul to mild
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    I'm fairly certain when Frosty see's this chart:     He's going to be outside doing a lot of this:  

    My last post this morn as I'm fed up with the misery in here already. The UKMO at 144 has the PF straddling the UK & a stalled frontal line delivering snow on it similar to feb 96 - It is more a

    Or perhaps it means instead that some 'apparent' absentees are sitting back and looking at a very much bigger picture than simply building cyber snowmen to get knocked down, re-built, and then knocked

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Chichester West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snow
  • Location: Chichester West Sussex

    At last something for us southerners if this verifys......... Please please please

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    A great indication of uncertainty in the models.  204hrs on the 18z vs 12z

     

    gfsnh-0-204.png?18

     

      gfsnh-0-210.png?12

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    Posted
  • Location: Mile Oak, 3 miles West of Brighton UK, 130 Meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme
  • Location: Mile Oak, 3 miles West of Brighton UK, 130 Meters above sea level

    I have waited 2 years to see a GFS chart show this, it's nice to see so that's why I'm posting it, as I seriously doubt it will be showing the same this time tomorrow

     

    gfs_2_192_png_18.png

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    Much much better run thus far. You can see the difference between this and the slop served up earlier. Question is can this be maintained on the 0z GFS and head this way in the 0z ECM?

     

     

    Yes but still not perfect, those damn shortwaves just to the north of the high will prevent any serious cold pool being pulled into northern Europe, i'm still desperate for an early Feb 1991 repeat ;)

     

    I see many more ups and downs in the days ahead but hopefully it remains cold for as long as possible and eventually we get the holy grail but its very tough nowadays to achieve in these warmer times.

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    Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

    The difference of 24 hours from the GFS 18z:  

     

    Yesterday: attachicon.gifgfs-2015011418-0-162.png  Tonight: attachicon.gifgfs-0-138 (3).png

     

    And yes that latter chart (tonight's) shows what looks suspiciously like a developing Omega block in mid Atlantic. :shok:  If that were to verify as shown and sustain itself in that position, we could be into a more prolonged spell than currently projected. It would likely provide a continuation of current forecast synoptics into the final week of January. We are still looking at an individual chart from t+138 hours, so mustn't get carried away but all the same, oooer, an Omega block, I say. :air_kiss:  A 10 day or longer cold to very cold spell is looking reasonably likely in my opinion, especially if indicated blocking occurs as shown above by D5/D6.  :D

     

    See below for a meteorological definition of said term. Note: the UK would be positioned on the right hand side of the block.

     

    http://www.theweatherprediction.com/blocking/

    Edited by gottolovethisweather
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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Looking at the Jetstream profiles - forecast is for a split jet, this is crucial as it will reinforce the euro trough and prevent heights from sinking too far south, a very likely scenario is further energy from the NW sinking SE forcing the azores high out to the west whilst any strong energy off the eastern USA seaboard is deflected well to the north west on the northern arm of what will be a much weaker jet overall - as I said good chance of a rinse and repeat scenario - BBC certainly suggesting this, with atlantic attacks coming unstuck to the west and forced SE into central Europe/Italy.

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    Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

    Tonight's 120 hrs fax chart is now in "slider low" range,so will be interesting to see what we end up with at 0 hrs.

     

    post-2839-0-30051900-1421362007_thumb.gi

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    Posted
  • Location: Northampton
  • Location: Northampton

    Looking at the Jetstream profiles - forecast is for a split jet, this is crucial as it will reinforce the euro trough and prevent heights from sinking too far south, a very likely scenario is further energy from the NW sinking SE forcing the azores high out to the west whilst any strong energy off the eastern USA seaboard is deflected well to the north west on the northern arm of what will be a much weaker jet overall - as I said good chance of a rinse and repeat scenario - BBC certainly suggesting this, with atlantic attacks coming unstuck to the west and forced SE into central Europe/Italy.

    Yes  - nice split flow at the end of the high res run with more energy going into the southern arm

    post-9179-0-09413900-1421362788_thumb.gi

    post-9179-0-43520800-1421362855_thumb.pn

    Would expect to see more disruption from that.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    The 18z is a snowfest for midland and further north and east! Much better run so far!! Stronger scandi ridge and amplified atlantic!

    And South and pretty much everywhere to be precise

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    Posted
  • Location: Crawley
  • Location: Crawley

    well well well - An IMBY post from me....

     

    JMA in on the 18z.

     

    Possible Deep snow for Kent / East sussex & into Essex. from 72-84 - aligns with the EPS & MOGREPS plume -

     

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2015011518/J72-594.GIF?15-18   late evening sun-

     

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2015011518/J72-7.GIF?15-18  into -6 polar air.....

     

    S

    Just for fun, what about west sussex?

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    Just for fun, what about west sussex?

     

    Yes on that run all the way along to IOW....

     

    But it still needs to be there at T6, but nice to see as its a late developing situation- this time tomorrow it will be on the euro 4-

     

    Could do with it 5MB lower for a little more Northern extent...

    S

    Edited by Steve Murr
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    Posted
  • Location: Crawley
  • Location: Crawley

    Yes on that run all the way along to IOW....

     

    But it still needs to be there at T6, but nice to see as its a late developing situation- this time tomorrow it will be on the euro 4-

     

    Could do with it 5MB lower for a little more Northern extent...

    S

    Nice, thanks matey

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    I have waited 2 years to see a GFS chart show this, it's nice to see so that's why I'm posting it, as I seriously doubt it will be showing the same this time tomorrow

     

    gfs_2_192_png_18.png

    Yes EML it doesn't get much better than that for the South.

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    Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom,kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom,kent 92m asl(310ft)

    The Models seem to go one way,then another etc. This time last night there was a positive theme, This morning not so much with more doom and gloom from some after ECM this afternoon and now with latest GFS run things are more positive again lol. The latest GFS shows better Heights to the North in Scandi and Lower Heights in Northern Italy with AH a long way West. All good signs for a good lengthy cold spell. Will it set a trend. Who knows and tbh Ian Fergusson has clearly stated that it is fast becoming a Forecasters Nightmare with all the different permatations(and that is just events later this weekend !!)

     

    Everyone, as others have stated earlier, don't get too hung up on just one run and will it snow IMBY.I would guess 95% on this forum want snow and I hope we all get rewarded in the next 7 days, but if not I think the pattern has changed from about 16 consecutive weeks of above av temps in the UK and I feel there is a fair chance the next 4 weeks could be below average temps,and with that the continuation of snow potential. Just remember where we were this time last year. I know where I would rather be. Sorry gone on a bit(Feel free to move over to Rant Thread if you like) but this simple point needed to be made.

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    Posted
  • Location: Amersham, Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Amersham, Buckinghamshire

    Yes on that run all the way along to IOW....

     

    But it still needs to be there at T6, but nice to see as its a late developing situation- this time tomorrow it will be on the euro 4-

     

    Could do with it 5MB lower for a little more Northern extent...

    S

    Silly question from complete noobie Steve, but do the JMA ppm charts not hatch areas of snow? Would I be right in thinking that the chilterns might get a smidgen of snow from that plume?

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    Ensembles all over the place by 96h and by 120 we have everything from the slider so far West it misses all the UK to a big fat flabby low to no slider at all!

    Take nothing for granted.

     

    Like the Southern IMBY thread in here.

    Edited by Mucka
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    Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

    Silly question from complete noobie Steve, but do the JMA ppm charts not hatch areas of snow? Would I be right in thinking that the chilterns might get a smidgen of snow from that plume?

    Allow me :-)

    Your correct, they don't hatch for snow. Re Chilterns, possibly is the best anyone can say.

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    Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire

    Silly question from complete noobie Steve, but do the JMA ppm charts not hatch areas of snow? Would I be right in thinking that the chilterns might get a smidgen of snow from that plume?

    Looks like it could be a M4 job even on this system(lol). with it only reaching southern counties, as Steve mentioned and then also SE & Coastal areas. But Ian F did say the clusters/mogreps? had it anywhere from N France to S midlands so you never know... Also Blue Army said 1-2 inches showing from earlier op run i believe to the northern home counties. 

    Edited by Mark N
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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

    Well mogreps has that low anywhere from france to the south midlands! ! Dont be surprised to see it even further north on the morning runs!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now

    Looks like it could be a M4 job even on this system(lol). with it only reaching southern counties, as Steve mentioned and then also SE & Coastal areas. But Ian F did say the clusters/mogreps? had it anywhere from N France to S midlands so you never know... Also Blue Army said 1-2 inches showing from earlier op run i believe to the northern home counties.

    So possibly north west Kent in a good happy medium then?;-) halfway between Midlands and northern France? Fingers crossed for our first flakes or 100000 in 2 years odd

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    Posted
  • Location: Amersham, Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Amersham, Buckinghamshire

    Allow me :-)Your correct, they don't hatch for snow. Re Chilterns, possibly is the best anyone can say.

    Great. Many thanks and to Mark N. I'm back to avid reading/lurking!

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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

    And yes that latter chart (tonight's) shows what looks suspiciously like a developing Omega block in mid Atlantic. :shok:  If that were to verify as shown and sustain itself in that position, we could be into a more prolonged spell than currently projected. It would likely provide a continuation of current forecast synoptics into the final week of January. We are still looking at an individual chart from t+138 hours, so mustn't get carried away but all the same, oooer, an Omega block, I say. :air_kiss:  A 10 day or longer cold to very cold spell is looking reasonably likely in my opinion, especially if indicated blocking occurs as shown above by D5/D6.  :D

     

    See below for a meteorological definition of said term. Note: the UK would be positioned on the right hand side of the block.

     

    http://www.theweatherprediction.com/blocking/

    That's a fascinating and exciting prospect!!!  <fingers crossed>

    I have to ask....why no mention in your signature about us living through the coldest March for over 100 years as well :)

     

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