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Model Output Discussion - 14th Jan 12z Onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

    I think TETIS mentioned yesterday that the easterly being forecast does not look like a "classic" one and I have to concur with that to an extent, never looks like its going to be a particularly cold one(e.g -10hpa not making an appearance) and I think some eastern coastal areas may be dissapointed with the ECM 144 hour chart because the uppers are very marginal to say the least. 

     

    That said details will no doubt change and there is still uncertainty how the slider low will act so still a lot to play for.

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    I'm fairly certain when Frosty see's this chart:     He's going to be outside doing a lot of this:  

    My last post this morn as I'm fed up with the misery in here already. The UKMO at 144 has the PF straddling the UK & a stalled frontal line delivering snow on it similar to feb 96 - It is more a

    Or perhaps it means instead that some 'apparent' absentees are sitting back and looking at a very much bigger picture than simply building cyber snowmen to get knocked down, re-built, and then knocked

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness

    The fly in the ointment is still showing on some of the charts:

     

    post-992-0-32887000-1421358458_thumb.png

     

    Won't get anything here whilst that remains.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    Those are not for the UK.

     

    But in the current setup any model output past 36 hours is not cast in stone.

    I am quite aware where the De Bilt are for,it was the swing in the output that i was pointing out   :) .-7 to +7 in 12 hours.

     

    Cheers West i thought as much and gather that had moved down the country.ECM still fine for you but a tad too far west for me :cray: BUT we all know we will have to wait until Sunday for exact path.Good luck.

    Edited by winterof79
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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    Very interesting! ! That biscay low is slightly deeper and further north on the 18z!!

    These situations must be very tricky to forecast , 30 miles south and no snow in UK, however if precip is upto the M4 then 10 million people effected (ie poss covering) - hard to tell on these charts coming through now though.

    Edited by Ali1977
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    Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions

    The fly in the ointment is still showing on some of the charts:

     

    attachicon.gifPesky Mild Sector Alert2.png

     

    Won't get anything here whilst that remains.

     

    Uppers are NOT everything, if you have dewpoints at or below 0 snow can fall even at -1 850's and there is evaporative cooling as well....

     

    Best go and see how the ECM went :) 

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall in particular but most aspects of weather, hate hot and humid.
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset

    A mixed bag of EC clusters.... any pronouncements of a secure and swift return to 'mild' conditions need to be taken with pinch of salt. Meanwhile, nearer-term focus needs to be on the late Sat-Sun high WBPT plume curving atop the low running off down into Biscay. *Could* get interesting on N flank of this feature, but wide spread in PPN envelope (e.g. MOGREPS has this anywhere from N France to S Midlands!!)....

     

    I always find in these situations with a wide spread its best to take the middle  ground solution,  so that'll be the south coast of England then.

    Crikey that's where I live. LOL

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    Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
    Posted
  • Location: Warwickshire/Oxon/Northants Border
  • Location: Warwickshire/Oxon/Northants Border

    The fly in the ointment is still showing on some of the charts:

     

    attachicon.gifPesky Mild Sector Alert2.png

     

    Won't get anything here whilst that remains.

    But you have chosen one of the mildest charts out of 50 or more possible choices.

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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

    The fly in the ointment is still showing on some of the charts:

     

    attachicon.gifPesky Mild Sector Alert2.png

     

    Won't get anything here whilst that remains.

     

    However the Northerly is being toned up in terms of cold since yesterday so that will help in sqeezing that "mild" sector. 

     

    Regarding the Northerly, it would certainly hold more potential if the Northerly was more NNE'ly than NNW'ly which is the case at the moment, not much time for the orientation to change either but as you can see, there is sometimes some small upgrades in terms of cold. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    Slider tracking further east tonight when compared with ECM 

    gfs-2-108.png?18

    Edited by winterof79
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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

    Slider pretty much idnetical to the 12z!! Think ecm will shift slightly east tomorrow! ! Doesnt necessarily mean a bad thing cos it could be more widespread frontal snow from the ecm; )

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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

     

    I now live on the east coast and how to put this politely?

     

    First, I don't want a 'classic easterly' whatever one of those is. The long draw across the north sea is a pain in the proverbial. I'd much sooner have a more continental flow.

     

    Second, there doesn't look to be too much marginal about the T144 ECM chart for the east coast. It's a deep freeze:

     
     
     
    If between -6C and -8C 850 hPa is now the new marginal we may as well all pack up and move to Iceland.

     

     

    Deep freeze for me is when you see more widespread of -10hpa like we are now seeing with the Northerly but each to their own on that one.

     

    With winds coming in from the sea, then from experience tells me uppers of -6 to -8 is quite marginal but the details are subject to change anyways 

     

    Edit: Too illistrate my point to WiB, at 144 hours the uppers are around -6 with a strong wind off the sea and despite being PPN being over Northern areas, the GFS temp shows 3C! Now he's living on the East Coast maybe he will get to realise that uppers like that are quite marginal especially if your close to the coast. 

    Edited by Geordiesnow
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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    The difference of 24 hours from the GFS 18z:  

     

    Yesterday: post-14819-0-54613300-1421360176_thumb.p  Tonight: post-14819-0-08901200-1421360176_thumb.p

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    Posted
  • Location: Ramsgate,East Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: BEASTERLYS
  • Location: Ramsgate,East Kent.

    Deep freeze for me is when you see more widespread of -10hpa like we are now seeing with the Northerly but each to their own on that one.

     

    With winds coming in from the sea, then from experience tells me uppers of -6 to -8 is quite marginal but the details are subject to change anyways 

    surely DPs would have a big influence . as long as they are sub zero   -6 uppers would be o,k

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    Close to a closed low 

     

     

     

    gfsnh-0-138.png?18

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    Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness

    Uppers are NOT everything, if you have dewpoints at or below 0 snow can fall even at -1 850's and there is evaporative cooling as well....

     

    Best go and see how the ECM went :)

    True, but my location is not typical in that it struggles with lack of elevation and is sheltered from heavier precipitation and the benefit of evaporative cooling regardless of which direction the precipitation comes from, meaning that it requires everything to be spot on in order to get lying snow. Mild sectors messed up what would have otherwise been good snowfalls from frontal attacks from the NW by washing one away in Feb 2012 and keeping us on the wrong side of a snow line in Jan 2013 from NW to SE England.

    Edited by The Enforcer
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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    so this is your surface cold ahead of the front on the 18z-

     

    At this timeframe the front is crossing the W & SW-

     

    http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2015011518/102-580UK.GIF?15-18

     

    Whats clear is if the euros are correct & it slides through its ALL snow on the NE flank, if it slides east the S & SE will turn to sleet & rain.

     

    Im still set on a sliding track more SE through the UK....

    S

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    Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness

    But you have chosen one of the mildest charts out of 50 or more possible choices.

    I agree there are colder charts, but that one shows the earliest key interaction between Atlantic weather fronts and polar air.

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    Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND

    The difference of 24 hours from the GFS 18z:  

     

    Yesterday: attachicon.gifgfs-2015011418-0-162.png  Tonight: attachicon.gifgfs-0-138 (3).png

    This won't be resolved till T72hours that low will change again by the ooz?
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