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Model Output Discussion - 14th Jan 12z Onwards

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Calm down guys, talks of snow plows and shovelling our way out. I've noticed before with sliders they are a very risky way of getting snow and can easily go wrong very quickly, however when things fall into place they are very rewarding.

For my location it's frustrating as being by the south coast at a relatively low elevation is not a good recipe for marginal situations.

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what is a slider and what does it mean?

sorry if this is a double post, on my phone

 

It's low pressure sliding NE>SE across the country.

GFS 12z is epic for snowfall across Northern and Central areas next week, further South and East more debatable. Though looking at those kinds of details simply isn't worth it, it does make for great viewing and the trend for cold next week remains.

 

Importantly, the GFS doesn't phase the Iceland low with the Newfoundland one, but it does come close. 

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Second slider incoming on GFS, looks a little more marginal for the West but details...

General theme cold sliders with countrywide snow fall possible.

 

gfs-0-162.png?12gfs-2-162.png?12

 

Sorry for commentary. Just trying to give noobies and lurkers a feeling for the general pattern that is expected.

 

A good enough summary Mucka.

 

And a note to the newbies and lurkers, it is pointless attempting to tie down snowfall predictions and regional snowfall specifics beyond 72 hours if not earlier. Most experienced folk know that of course but don't take individual charts as a done deal, the trend is our friend. This is one decent spell upcoming for coldies, now let us hope it delivers for one and all.  :good:

Edited by gottolovethisweather

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what is a slider and what does it mean?

sorry if this is a double post, on my phone

It's when low pressure coming of the Atlantic hits cold air,has a fight with it then slides under and around.Turning ppn to snow.

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unusual chart showing thicknesses 520/524 dam under a slack type trough

Onshore SW flow would hinder chances of coastal snowfall for you.

Doubt it will verify like that though

 

Quite often it ends up okay as the Purbeck area aids my location on a south west flow, not always, but I've seen snow in my locale and 15 miles east nout as it truly is straight off the coast. like you say likely to change, but here's to hoping.

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Despite the dumps of snow GFS has modelled this time the synoptic from UKMO is better for coldies in general terms, any snowfall less marginal, a bit colder with pattern further West, AH displaced and better Atlantic ridge/amplification for potential longevity, better NE/E draw to drag in cold uppers.

 

UW144-21.GIF?14-17

 

Stunning winter synoptic.

 

Does not get much better than that Mucka, especially for everyone and not just a select few.

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what is a slider and what does it mean?

sorry if this is a double post, on my phone

 

Just imagine the low pressure cell as a ball climbing over the high pressure in the Atlantic and sliding down the eastern flank of the high pressure cell sliding through the Uk who is sat at the base of the eastern flank of the high pressure cell.

 

I always think of low pressure cells as sucking up moisture so carrying more precipitation and clouds whereas high pressure cells do the opposite and push moisture and precipitation out of their way providing clearer skies under the high pressure, hence the sliding low pressure cells should have plenty of precip. in them and hopefully heap loads of snow in these situations.

Edited by geordiekev

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Does not get much better than that Mucka, especially for everyone and not just a select few.

A long way to go but at face value that's a snowfest for many in the UK, personally I think as we get nearer the time those sliders will be further West. Edited by Hocus Pocus

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Given the current output from the GFS would I be correct in saying it doesn't bode to well for NI as it's too far west or am I wrong? Thanks.

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Despite the dumps of snow GFS has modelled this time the synoptic from UKMO is better for coldies in general terms, any snowfall less marginal, a bit colder with pattern further West, AH displaced and better Atlantic ridge/amplification for potential longevity, better NE/E draw to drag in cold uppers.

 

UW144-21.GIF?14-17

 

Stunning winter synoptic.

That potentially is a great position to be in. AH almost links to High in East Greenland and would form a formidable block which would take some time to erode .If this verified we would be looking at a 10+ cold spell and with snow on the ground temps would get colder and colder, :cold:  :cold:

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Despite the dumps of snow GFS has modelled this time the synoptic from UKMO is better for coldies in general terms, any snowfall less marginal, a bit colder with pattern further West, AH displaced and better Atlantic ridge/amplification for potential longevity, better NE/E draw to drag in cold uppers.

 

UW144-21.GIF?14-17

 

Stunning winter synoptic.

Blimey oh crikey. That's a stunning chart for deep mid winter. I bet the Met Office are twitching now ;)

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No...... I read Gavin's Post a few times but he means the wait for a cold spell is over

 

Phew, I was getting worried then, haha

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A long way to go but at face value that's a snowfest for many in the UK, personally I think as we get nearer the time those sliders will be further West.

Hope your right or else it's a week of cold rain for me.

Hoping corrections will be westwards.

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Given the current output from the GFS would I be correct in saying it doesn't bode to well for NI as it's too far west or am I wrong? Thanks.

Wrong Bomber.

 

Perhaps marginal at sea level, but the higher you get the more likely to be snow. The slider lows have well entrenched cold and it would already be cold at the surface.

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Would like to see the 850s for the UKMO.

 

The GFS 12z isn't too fantastic in comparison with what went before. Higher 850s and the lows are moving over the mid Atlantic cell rather than sliding underneath a north eastern block. The path they are taking are prime for picking up warm sectors that would ruin snow chances for many.

 

Yes so would we all. (hint, hint)

The only warm sector to worry about though would be for SW quadrant ahead of the low with colder uppers quickly circulating back in from the NE. (UKMO)

 

As regards the appetizer snow from that feature running down country on Sunday, there will also be a warm sector ahead and to the SW of that so Western parts could a wintry mix while central and eastern parts would more likely see snow. 

Either way though that is just the appetizer to kick off the winter feast.

"Come, let us eat and make merry for tomorrow will be mild!"

Edited by Mucka

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Crossing my fingers that these sliders push west in further runs, sadly us below London are still at a minimum for snow but things could change nearer the time. Loving the models this evening.

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even the south coast looks set to get a dumping on Tues/Wed from that - Monday abit more marginal as a warm sector mixed in right on S Coast - musn't grumble though, great run.

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Would like to see the 850s for the UKMO.

 

The GFS 12z isn't too fantastic in comparison with what went before. Higher 850s and the lows are moving over the mid Atlantic cell rather than sliding underneath a north eastern block. The path they are taking are prime for picking up warm sectors that would ruin snow chances for many.

Isn't the close nature of things part of the reason why the GFS 12Z run was such a snowy one......... 

850's are they everything? 

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