Model Output Discussion - 14th Jan 12z Onwards

[Mucka]

JMA comfortably has the best 192 chart of the models but it also has the low deeper and further West meaning snow would me more marginal and further NE from the slider.

Almost perfect run for Northern England first and then the SouthEast.

 

 

So it gets my vote.

We get the weather we vote for right?

[MR EXTREMES]

Looks more like Wales and the NE have maybe trough activity:  ECU1-144.png

It also looks like Kent and along the southern areas could be prone to some convection with showers wrapping round the core of the low pressure to our South.

[Eugene]

JMA comfortably has the best 192 chart of the models but it also has the low deeper and further West meaning snow would me more marginal and further NE from the slider.

Almost perfect run for Northern England first and then the SouthEast.

 

 

So it gets my vote.

We get the weather we vote for right?

 

 

That's a massive improvement on last nights JMA run but it's JMA afterall, up and down like a YoYo

[SMU]

216 & a belt of PPN moves south turning to snow over England....

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015011512/ECU1-216.GIF?15-0

[swfc]

You can see on the JMA, the further east and deeper the low

image.jpg

The better the easterly feed as the troughing moves more into Europe and fills here and holds the ridge up better to the north east

image.jpg

Thats the down side to the low tracking to the west!!Nick alluded to this earlier in regard to it holding up the ridge in situ and building.Good prospects for a good few days snow,low temps ete but the ecm does look very similar to the gfs 12z in regard to the lack of longivity.Still snow for the guys tho

[blizzard81]

Trend from 12z op runs is for this to be a cold snap as opposed to a cold spell. The easterly which was keenly modelled yesterday and this morning is now fast becoming a distant dream. I know this will not be a popular post but these are the trends I am seeing this evening. As for the JMA, I often find this model 24 hours behind the game.

Edited January 15, 2015 by blizzard81

[Mucka]

That's a massive improvement on last nights JMA run but it's JMA afterall, up and down like a YoYo

 

It is rated though and it is not as if the other models have the pattern nailed or haven't chopped and changed run to run. 

Seems a perfectly plausible outcome at this stage.

[Snowy L]

Trend from 12z op runs is for this to be a cold snap as opposed to a cold spell. The easterly which was keenly modelled yesterday and this morning is now fast becoming a distant dream. I know this will not be a popular post but these are the trends I am seeing this evening.

 

At the moment it is looking increasingly likely. Still, plenty of potential snow events in the next 7 days which is far better than last year.

[Mark Neal.]

Trend from 12z op runs is for this to be a cold snap as opposed to a cold spell. The easterly which was keenly modelled yesterday and this morning is now fast becoming a distant dream. I know this will not be a popular post but these are the trends I am seeing this evening.

Really? The runs this evening may not be the most potent easterly, but still show a easterly, okay it may be losing its intensity with the high to the West getting closer, but still shows a good few days of a E/NE flow. The easterly showing yesterday on the ops, was showing a bitter flow with some very cold uppers to the NE, maybe that what your alluding too? 

[Ali1977]

I have a feeling the signs that the cold spell may end next weekend is a bit of a red herring, the high seems to drop really quickly and not really producing an Easterly feed. Time will tell but I wouldn't be surprised if tonight's GFS and the mornings runs don't upgrade the longevity by a day or two....

[fergieweather]

Trend from 12z op runs is for this to be a cold snap as opposed to a cold spell. The easterly which was keenly modelled yesterday and this morning is now fast becoming a distant dream. I know this will not be a popular post but these are the trends I am seeing this evening.

Yes, but longevity was always open to doubt: yesterday's JMA caught our eye by faster exit from colder phase; MOGREPS later, but much milder ultimately. The chosen middle ground was thus to talk of a gradual waning of cold and rtn back towards around average in the 10-15d period, but with considerable uncertainty (which clearly remains).

[Cheshire Freeze]

Trend from 12z op runs is for this to be a cold snap as opposed to a cold spell. The easterly which was keenly modelled yesterday and this morning is now fast becoming a distant dream. I know this will not be a popular post but these are the trends I am seeing this evening.

 

I noted it this morning after the 00z GFS and UKMO. I'd much rather take a much more marginal situation with energy continually sliding NW-SE than the 'flash in the pan' easterly quickly followed by a roaring northern jet and back into status quo territory. If we reset westerly then where is the next cold spell materialising from because pretty soon we'll be heading towards Feb.

 

The issue I have is that some places now look like missing out double whammy style....i.e slider too far west followed by a brief easterly which doesn't entrench long enough for anything of prolonged note.

[pdiddy]

192 screams reload slider

 

Reload.gif

 

Look for trends beyond +144, not details

Not sure about that... The high ridging north east I think.  Anyway, lots can happen before then.

[Backtrack]

Trend from 12z op runs is for this to be a cold snap as opposed to a cold spell. The easterly which was keenly modelled yesterday and this morning is now fast becoming a distant dream. I know this will not be a popular post but these are the trends I am seeing this evening.

 

Yeah I must of missed that, these SW'erly winds sure look balmy.

[swfc]

192 screams reload slider

 

Reload.gif

 

Look for trends beyond +144, not details

Sorry but a mlb at best from there.Cold at the surface tho

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I have a feeling the signs that the cold spell may end next weekend is a bit of a red herring, the high seems to drop really quickly and not really producing an Easterly feed. Time will tell but I wouldn't be surprised if tonight's GFS and the mornings runs don't upgrade the longevity by a day or two....

 

looks chilly though, hopefully even if we lose cold uppers, we will have a high over us, so ice days possible as some areas will have deep snow

 

similar to Dec 28-31st would be great, I had 2 ice days

[Barry12]

Trend from 12z op runs is for this to be a cold snap as opposed to a cold spell. The easterly which was keenly modelled yesterday and this morning is now fast becoming a distant dream. I know this will not be a popular post but these are the trends I am seeing this evening.

 

Paul Hudson has just mentioned an Easterly by mid week. It may not last long, but it's certainly not a 'distant dream' as it's showing on all models

 

last post until 2pm

Edited January 15, 2015 by Barry95

[TEITS]

The 12Zs only highlight my cautious posts this morning.

 

Personally speaking im not expecting much at the moment because history tells me I tend to miss the precip from sliders as this remains to my W. Like I said this morning my main focus is what happens afterwards and the 12Zs just highlight what I said this morning about the E,ly never really getting going.

 

However do not fret because again history tells me the models are unlikely to be correct yet with regards to the E,ly.

[polar vortex]

Well the cold and snow chances are still there but the great looking synoptics have gone along with the likely hood of the 

synoptics morphing into a deep cold easterly draw, that is not to say they will not return but at the moment they have 

definitely been put on the back burner.

Still much to look foward to over the next seven days with a big fat question mark still hanging over the orientation, direction 

and depth of the sliding energy from the north west. 

[Met4Cast]

Yeah as it turned out, the ECM couldn't quite amplify the Western edge of the high enough and we see it collapsing and returning us to milder Westerlies in the last frame of the run.

 

Still, that's over a week away. But an argument could be made for a return to less cold conditions after next week, not worth putting too much focus on that yet though given fairly large model run volatility 

[Cheshire Freeze]

By day 10 the core of PV has re-established Greenland/Canadian side. Good luck going forward from there should it materialise like that

 

[nick sussex]

In terms of the overall pattern the ECM is vastly different towards the Pacific and polar region compared to its 00hrs output. So I think we need to wait to see exactly which trend is correct however NCEP expect polar air to remain over most of the CONUS so any output that lifts that right into Canada is suspect. Effectively the ECM starts to flatten the pattern out before re-amplifying it again towards day ten.

 

Although the ECM remains cold throughout I'm dubious as to whether it hasn't gone a bit walkabout from T168hrs.

Edited January 15, 2015 by nick sussex

[chris55]

192 screams reload slider

 

Reload.gif

 

Look for trends beyond +144, not details

 

 

And consistency is the only way to spot a trend at distance. Loads of options available. 

[blizzard81]

I noted it this morning after the 00z GFS and UKMO. I'd much rather take a much more marginal situation with energy continually sliding NW-SE than the 'flash in the pan' easterly quickly followed by a roaring northern jet and back into status quo territory. If we reset westerly then where is the next cold spell materialising from because pretty soon we'll be heading towards Feb.

 

The issue I have is that some places now look like missing out double whammy style....i.e slider too far west followed by a brief easterly which doesn't entrench long enough for anything of prolonged note.

My sentiments exactly. The energy over north east canada and Greenland just doesn't want to let go!

[Cheshire Freeze]

My sentiments exactly. The energy over north east canada and Greenland just doesn't want to let go!

 

De ja vu eh? I don't think we've seen enough vortex disruption through stratospheric means around the Greenland locale so we'll pay the price for that I'm sure...but I think a lot of us already knew that. Yes, pressure is high way out east but that stands no chance given the rather boisterous northern jet bombarding low after low over the top of our mid lat high.

 

Personally I aim to concentrate on sniffing out a few flakes this weekend and after that whatever will be will be.