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Model Output Discussion - 14th Jan 12z Onwards


reef

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Day 5

ECM1-120.GIF?15-0

East/south easterly flow ahead of the approaching front, definitely an improvement. The warm sector doesn't look like breaching the UK either

ECM0-120.GIF?15-0

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: lizard pen south cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: summer thunderstorms snow snow snow
  • Location: lizard pen south cornwall

Goodbye slider.

 

Snow for cornwall. LOL

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015011512/ECH1-120.GIF?15-0

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015011512/ECU1-120.GIF?15-0

 

Also looking at that a lot of unstable air t'up north drifting south-

 

Could be very snowy in the NW & North/ NE-

 

The slider track is I think now optimised by the ECM....

 

S

Stop messing around steve,SNOW for cornwall :rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Sussex Surrey and Kent dunped on by sun evening on ecm

 

 

Is it that short wave moving SSE from Scotland?:  post-14819-0-81490700-1421346552_thumb.g

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Good ecm regarding the snow distribution.Down side imo the heigths arnt that great to the north west and north east.Looks very similar to the gfs 12z atm but maybe im being picky!!!!Yep it is

Edited by swfc
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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Wow, such a synoptic knife edge at T+144. There is the special supercold NEasterly waiting in the wings or the warm wrap around from Europe....

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

ECM T144 surely snow for all except extreme south coast - low cleared south, direct easterly in -6 850s, surely with some sort of trough or frontal activity.

 

Looks more like Wales and the NE have maybe trough activity:  post-14819-0-83926800-1421346843_thumb.p

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

Tut tut mods feel free to remove I do not post on here much prefering to sit on the fence and watch from behind the scenes and leave it to the most experienced on here,i do feel that the mod thread is fast becoming the south thread,when a person from the north west comes in and gets slated for commenting the north west is gping to have loads of snow,i do feel the mods need to get a hand on this it is very much becoming imby yet again.Thanks

 

Hi Ian, as a moderator and I'm sure a few would back me up here. What is needed from individual forum users is a simple IMBY statement against each post or a simple clarification that they are talking about a chart in la la land. This is basically what we moderators call "SELF MODERATION". So if folk could kindly do as is so often hoped for, this would help provide a more pleasant experience for all forum users in future.  :friends:

 

Back to MOD, FI or not, this looks a good chart at t+120hrs for the cold-lovers in here and covers a vast part of the UK too, does it not? 

 

post-7183-0-69099200-1421346928_thumb.gi

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Looks more like Wales and the NE have maybe trough activity:  attachicon.gifECU1-144.png

Also one approaching the south east too by the looks of it. But that is splitting hairs at the moment :p

Looks like a brief north easterly on this run

ECM1-168.GIF?15-0

 

JMA still has the warm sector at day 5, but ends with a nice easterly at the end of the run

J192-21.GIF?15-12

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

JMA further East

 

JN144-21.GIF?15-12

 

Big improvement over this mornings run overall though.

 

JN192-21.GIF?15-12

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Also one approaching the south east too by the looks of it. But that is splitting hairs at the moment :p

Looks like a brief north easterly on this run

ECM1-168.GIF?15-0

 

 

Yes ECM now like the GFS quicker with the breakdown of the trough as the ridge moves in 36 hours earlier than the 0z.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

GEFS 12z mean gives an idea how cold it will be next week, after the last few rubbish winters..this makes a pleasant change doesn't it?

post-4783-0-87330400-1421347163_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-84927500-1421347179_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-63136100-1421347187_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-59729800-1421347197_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-03310900-1421347208_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

After a quick glance at the above, put simply, from midnight tonight Temperatures will be lower than any point in recent times right through to the 23rd January should the above verify (and why shouldn't it?). Temperatures will definitely well below normal and cold enough for snow on most days even during daytime by the looks of it. For central England as good a region of choice to represent snowfall chances inland as anywhere imo, these ensembles indicate that the following timeframes will be ones to watch. The evening of Saturday 17th January, Tuesday 20th January mid-afternoon onwards and Wednesday 21st January (Happy Birthday gtltw :drinks: ) reflect the greatest snowfall opportunities currently. This is not to say there will not be further opportunities for snow and hopefully lying snow options outside of these timeframes, equally we need the colder air to verify as shown too, alongside hope of lower 850s to avoid any transient events. 

 

The downside to my analysis is that this simply represents one region of the country, but let's be honest, if it can snow that far inland, other regions exposed to the Northerly/North Easterly will also benefit from forecast events too. A final suggestion from me and as stated by others Tuesday's event (potentially the second snow event by then at least) is not nailed yet and currently represents the beginnings of FI. We will know more about such local/regional variations of specifics nearer the time, by following updates in the coming days.

 

Cheers and here's to at least some harsh Air frosts if nothing else, since I've only had one since the start of the year. Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow. :cold: Sorry mildies.  :doh:  :oops:

I agree very much this is an ever progressing picture with nearly all runs in the last few days throwing up very wintry and cold charts also not this time last week we never see this coming.

And indeed it's happy birthday to me and my present from net weather is the opportunity to celebrate over these fantastic model runs.

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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND

Well ecm is a snow feast for east coast of Ireland in North East flow at 144. 2010 memories !!!!

Edited by snowice
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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts

Depends. The alignment (northwards) of the capping baroclinic zone threatening PPN to the S/SE has continued to show great flux across all modelling. It's one of the core forecast difficulties this weekend.

 

At the moment, where would you say is in the best position for snow, West Midlands?

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Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

Yes ECM now like the GFS quicker with the breakdown of the trough as the ridge moves in 36 hours earlier than the 0z.

 

Still a week away, plenty of time for change...

 

-6 uppers still for the south at day 8

 

ECM0-192.GIF?15-0

Edited by Barry95
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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

You can see on the JMA, the further east and deeper the low

post-16336-0-93178900-1421347435_thumb.j

The better the easterly feed as the troughing moves more into Europe and fills here and holds the ridge up better to the north east

post-16336-0-31332400-1421347442_thumb.j

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I know I keep posting - but the depth of the surface cold pool by day 5 is superb-

 

the uppers a mere -7c

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015011512/ECU0-120.GIF?15-0

 

However I would suggest that the maxima even for London on Tues would be close to zero, obviously further North sub zero, maybe even just -10 Maxima in the central belt of Scotland-

 

I keep banging this drum - Its coming!!!!

 

ECM 144- deep cold for the UK & snow in the sw

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015011512/ECU1-144.GIF?15-0

 

 

Isn't that Barry95's catchphrase ;)

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

192 screams reload slider

 

post-7073-0-62089700-1421347574_thumb.gi

 

Look for trends beyond +144, not details

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