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Model Output Discussion - 14th Jan 12z Onwards

reef

By reef
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Snowmaggedon Aficionado

Snowmaggedon

Posted
  • Location: Middlesbrough
  • Location: Middlesbrough
Posted (edited)

Good to see the GFS keeping that nice little feature... Someone will get a dumping from that.

gfs-2-90.png?12?12

gfs-2-96.png?12?12

So far so good, maybe a little better at the moment.

Edit: Get your shovels out:

gfs-2-138.png?12?12

Is that a countrywide snow event in the third precip chart?

Edited by Snowmaggedon
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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted (edited)

The GFS has a major snow event late Monday into Tuesday.

Day 6

gfs-0-144.png?12

Round 2 coming up, that low over Iceland can only really go one way. Snow again for the majority on Wednesday in this run, just the south west corner loses out (This run)

 

UKMO different at that time

UW144-21.GIF?14-17

Cold and unsettled, Atlantic ridge building in behind, that could turn very cold later on.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

UKMO looks even better. Keeping the Azores and any warm sectors well West compared to GFS.

 

UN120-21.GIF?14-17

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Jason H Enthusiast

Jason H

Posted
  • Location: Bexleyheath (south), Kent
  • Location: Bexleyheath (south), Kent
Posted

UKMO looks even better. Keeping the Azores and any warm sectors well West compared to GFS.

 

UN120-21.GIF?14-17

Sensational chart. Bring it on please.

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted (edited)

Really irritating not being able to see the 850 Temps on UKMO. :wallbash: Crucial for IMBY

Edited by karlos1983
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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

Nerve shredding timeframe with the low over Newfoundland, this must not phase with the drop down low from Iceland. We could do with that Iceland low being shallower and further west which might still happen.

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
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Posted

Second slider incoming on GFS, looks a little more marginal for the West but details...

General theme cold sliders with countrywide snow fall possible.

 

gfs-0-162.png?12gfs-2-162.png?12

 

Sorry for commentary. Just trying to give noobies and lurkers a feeling for the general pattern that is expected.

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Snowmaggedon Aficionado

Snowmaggedon

Posted
  • Location: Middlesbrough
  • Location: Middlesbrough
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Posted

Second slider incoming on GFS, looks a little more marginal for the West but details...

General theme cold sliders with countrywide snow fall possible.

 

gfs-0-162.png?12gfs-2-162.png?12

 

Sorry for commentary. Just trying to give noobies and lurkers a feeling for the general pattern that is expected.

Appreciate it, keep the commentary coming! :)

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Paul Maestro

Paul

Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
Posted

The new GFS is coming in fine currently, but for this run only it'll only be visible on the viewers here on Netweather once the run has completed. The 18z and beyond will load as normal. 

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

 

We've switched the viewers over now, so coming through live as the model updates..

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

Really irritating not being able to see the 850 Temps on UKMO. :wallbash: Crucial for IMBY

unusual chart showing thicknesses 520/524 dam under a slack type trough

Onshore SW flow would hinder chances of coastal snowfall for you.

Doubt it will verify like that though

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robbo88 Enthusiast

robbo88

Posted
  • Location: Hattersley, greater manchester 160m asl.
  • Location: Hattersley, greater manchester 160m asl.
Posted

 

Sorry for commentary. Just trying to give noobies and lurkers a feeling for the general pattern that is expected.

Much appreciated mucka, hopefully will do well this time in our area!

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Frosty_wsm Rising Star

Frosty_wsm

Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
Posted

Don't just buy a shovel, buy a snow plow...

 

It's fast becoming THAT GFS....

 

Heavy slider...

 

gfs-2-168.png?12?12

 

gfs-0-168.png?12?12

No need for people in the south West, not going by that chart anyway but the detail will change at that range.

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Dr. Astro Enthusiast

Dr. Astro

Posted
Posted

No need for people in the south West, not going by that chart anyway but the detail will change at that range.

 

Very marginal for the SW, agreed.

 

Majority of the UK though is showing a countrywide snow event..

 

Chances of verification exactly as shown... 1/50 i'd say.

 

Need to wait until at least 48 hours.

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Winter Cold Seasoned

Winter Cold

Posted
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold! Winter :)
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL
Posted

fantastic start to the 12zs tonight. GFS and UKMO, although differing a bit are both cold runs so far. All routes lead to cold maybe from now on?

next weeks snow events look like buses! You wait 2 years and then 3 come along at once :D

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted (edited)

After two frontal snow events we end up with this

gfs-0-192.png?12

Strong north easterly winds, -8C Isotherm pushing back into the UK, heavy snow showers should start to pile in along the east coast, hopefully pushing inland too.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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MP-R Maestro

MP-R

Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
Posted

No need for people in the south West, not going by that chart anyway but the detail will change at that range.

 

I'm not worried about that just yet. That pressure chart doesn't seem to correlate very well with precipitation type in the second chart. If the low were further east then maybe uppers would be on the warm side but not in that one.

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Fozfoster Seasoned

Fozfoster

Posted
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
  • Weather Preferences: WHITE GOLD
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
Posted

Second slider incoming on GFS, looks a little more marginal for the West but details...

General theme cold sliders with countrywide snow fall possible.

 

gfs-0-162.png?12gfs-2-162.png?12

 

Sorry for commentary. Just trying to give noobies and lurkers a feeling for the general pattern that is expected.

Carry on my Mucka!!!
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