Model Output Discussion - 14th Jan 12z Onwards

[damianslaw]

If the theme of the evening continues tomorrow, and no reason why not, expect BBC to put more yellow warnings for snow over the weekend tomorrow, unlike yesterday's snow, any snow from Friday onwards will stick and not thaw allowing lets hope many a snowman to be built.. perfect timing for children..

[geordiekev]

Cross polar flow....now where have i seen one of those charts......let me see....yes i remember

 

 

 

The starting point had s westerlies and a hideous PV too

I'm glad you mentioned that as I was going to ask if any other years had similar NH profiles to the ones being shown. Been lurking for a good few years and seen omega blocks come and go. But with the Azores on its hols on the eastern seaboard and the vortex taking a vacation over Siberia I can say I've never seen this set up before.

If anyone can recall similar set ups in previous years other than '47 it would be nice to compare.

[Djdazzle]

The models are looking great for cold. But we've been burnt so many times before. However, the fact that the BBC are making noises suggests thst the MET have some confidence. Hmmmmm!

[Mucka]

Someone mentioned this the other day, sorry can't remember who, but it is so much nicer to have a reasonable cold spell modelled in a nearer time-frame and get upgrades than an eye popping cold spell in FI and get downgrades. (which, let's face it, is the usual)

Edited January 14, 2015 by Mucka

[Ice Day]

Fabulous run.....at 264 and the country is still 'bathed' in -8 to -10 uppers.  Welcome to Netweather GFSP - perhaps it stands for 'Good For Snow Potential'?

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Will it snow in Brighton?

 

BFTP

 

Yes....it might.....Just been up the attic....brought the sledge down. 

 

BFTP

Edited January 14, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[MKN]

I cant help but think it wouldnt take much of a change to see the high pressure nudged further south leaving us dry & cold with little else by 168. Something that often happens to be the case. Large pinch of salt for any charts past +72/96 for me at the minute

[Guest]

Looks promising but Scandi and North Russian temps need to cool down, though Weatheronline has them cooling to respectable levels by the 20th.

Try and get a bit of south in the easterly then Watford could in line for a Thames streamer

[nick sussex]

If the theme of the evening continues tomorrow, and no reason why not, expect BBC to put more yellow warnings for snow over the weekend tomorrow, unlike yesterday's snow, any snow from Friday onwards will stick and not thaw allowing lets hope many a snowman to be built.. perfect timing for children..

Lol! Children, I expect if it snows you'll be running outside and playing in the snow like most of the members in here.

 

A nice way to round off the evening with a wintry looking GFS run and the -10 850 making it to the UK which is always nice to see.

[kumquat]

-40C might be overdoing it.

 

 

 

I don't know - there's a -88 over the Alps

[damianslaw]

Someone mentioned this the other day, sorry can't remember who, but it is so much nicer to have a reasonable cold spell modelled in a nearer time-frame and get upgrades than an eye popping cold spell in FI and get downgrades. (which, let's face it, is the usual)

 

 

Last post from me this evening - but the best cold spells often come at very short notice and often unawares - and yes such scenarios are much better when you see confidence at the 48-72 hr timeframe than at the 144 hr timeframe plus..

 

I've noticed when we do see such changes as have occurred in the past 48 hrs to a significant change in synoptics it is indicative of a major shift in patterns overall intensifying at a rapid rate - a trigger has been pulled all of a sudden and there is nowhere back.. talk about rapid transformation. It is notable that the BBC are going out guns blazing this evening - Met office must be confident of a change to sustained cold weather.

[Chris D]

Oh my, what have I come into here!! nearly 1,000 people reading this thread haha!

 

Very good runs from the models tonight, and -10c 850s I see, must be a sign of something, and cross model ageement??

 

Cold spell approaching? Maybe.

Edited January 14, 2015 by Chris D

[Geordiesnow]

If the theme of the evening continues tomorrow, and no reason why not, expect BBC to put more yellow warnings for snow over the weekend tomorrow, unlike yesterday's snow, any snow from Friday onwards will stick and not thaw allowing lets hope many a snowman to be built.. perfect timing for children..

 

But the snow did stick though in some areas especially in Ireland/Northern Ireland and SW Scotland, the difference will be any snow that does lie is likely to stick around for a little while with cold day time maximums and potentially some very cold night time minimums especially when we get into the messy slack flow the models are indicating. 

[geordiekev]

Sorry for the one liner but Happy BIRTH day GFS. One for the archives

[Mucka]

Just a word of caution. GFS 18z ensembles suggest this isn't a done deal yet with all too many members wanting to push energy NW instead of SE. Hope this is just a blip in this run and they come totally on board through tomorrow,

 

 

We would still get some cold and an Earlier Easterly but it would be limited because of the jet running over the top causing the high to sink.

 

Edited January 14, 2015 by Mucka

[winterof79]

I'm glad you mentioned that as I was going to ask if any other years had similar NH profiles to the ones being shown. Been lurking for a good few years and seen omega blocks come and go. But with the Azores on its hols on the eastern seaboard and the vortex taking a vacation over Siberia I can say I've never seen this set up before.

If anyone can recall similar set ups in previous years other than '47 it would be nice to compare.

Can't post charts now but 24th Jan 1963 has a version.What is more remarkable is the identical cut off low heights to our s/e that we are forecast and that were present in 47,63 and 87 all severe winter periods.Look on meteoceil on archives.Its uncanny.

[Neilsouth]

Something most people haven't realised is the models tend to overdo the uppers, on many occasions deep 850's such as these have been pushed further away from our shores back across europe nearer the time. Sometimes we've expected -10 and got -4 instead

[SMU]

Anyone looking for the optimum slider scenario its PTB 7-

 

( also this is the first run to get the -10c isotherm south of England in this weekends Northerly which Is certainly an upgrade )

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=126&code=7&mode=0&carte=1

 

S

 

[shaky]

Just a word of caution. GFS 18z ensembles suggest this isn't a done deal yet with all too many members wanting to push energy NW instead of SE. Hope this is just a blip in this run and they come totally on board through tomorrow,

 

same was said yesterday mucka but the operational has stuck to it!! In any case you would follow the operational in the high resolution time frame anyway!! Not saying its right but its probably got a better grip of the pattern going forward!!

[karlos1983]

All this will it snow imby nonsense, if it snows only north of the M4, guess what! I'll be getting in my car and driving there!

The best model watching I can remember for a long while. For any newbies, my advice would be to ignore the detail of where will it snow and at what time, take time to read the more experienced members posts, sit back and enjoy! Somewhere in the UK will hit the jackpot!

[Bristawl Si]

And to think we're now entering "the heart of the Winter".......

I reckon there's a couple of prominent NW stalwarts allowing themselves a cheeky smile to themselves.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Good night.........astonishing 18z.

BFTP

[Mucka]

same was said yesterday mucka but the operational has stuck to it!! In any case you would follow the operational in the high resolution time frame anyway!! Not saying its right but its probably got a better grip of the pattern going forward!!

 

Yes that and the cross model support increases confidence.

Just saying... 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

And to think we're now entering "the heart of the Winter".......

I reckon there's a couple of prominent NW stalwarts allowing themselves a cheeky smile to themselves.

Well not quite but plenty of winter left so happy days

BFTP

Edited January 14, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Jason M]

same was said yesterday mucka but the operational has stuck to it!! In any case you would follow the operational in the high resolution time frame anyway!! Not saying its right but its probably got a better grip of the pattern going forward!!

Also, the GEFS are based on the old GFS model. IDO commented last night that the GEFS are not being upgraded until Q3. In essence the GEFS and GFS opp are basically completely different models now.

All of that said, as a set they look pretty good to me so far.

At this juncture, cold is nailed on... Severe cold and heavy snow though is far from certain yet.