Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - 14th Jan 12z Onwards


reef

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Ramsgate,East Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: BEASTERLYS
  • Location: Ramsgate,East Kent.

Very marginal for the SW, agreed.

 

Majority of the UK though is showing a countrywide snow event..

 

Chances of verification exactly as shown... 1/50 i'd say.

 

Need to wait until at least 48 hours.

I have to say the S.E is looking dry....whilst the rest take a pasting

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham

Crossing my fingers that these sliders push west in further runs, sadly us below London are still at a minimum for snow but things could change nearer the time. Loving the models this evening.

if it pushes Further west it would take the precipitation with it....... but hey we would have cold uppers  :wallbash:

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

I have to say the S.E is looking dry....whilst the rest take a pasting

Dry? Hmmm I'm not sure what you're looking at? With sliders it won't be dry.

Either us southerners will get snow or it will be rain, won't be dry,

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

I think the GEM is about to deliver a BIG FAT BOOM!!

 

gem-0-138.png?12

The GEM had to steal the show, it doesn't get much better than that synoptically, would be filling my boots with that strong north easterly wind too after the frontal snow shenanigans :D

A couple of days of heavy snow showers for many followed by the Azores high toppling over the UK, bringing fine sunny days and severe frosts by night.

gem-0-168.png?12

gem-0-216.png?12

moving on, I think the GFS might need another upgrade

 

gfs-0-192.png?12

This at day 8, a biting north easterly

 

To this mild south westerly

gfs-0-240.png?12

2 days later  :rofl:

Edited by Captain shortwave
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: ramsgate 42m asl
  • Location: ramsgate 42m asl

I have to say the S.E is looking dry....whilst the rest take a pasting

according to the snow charts that summer sun put up earlier, we in east kent get one day of snow but that could easily go either way  :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

Charts at t+168 just about never verify in detail. So all these charts are fine and dandy - but in reality they wont happen like that.

 

For the next few runs we need to see what the trend is regarding the first sliding low. The further west the better - it may produce less back edge snow to start with, but it will pull more cold air in on its northern flank and ensure that anything that happens in the day or two following is less marginal. Too far east and this could all go pear shaped for many. 

 

Sunday afternoon is pretty key. We need the trough to dig as far south as possible. GFS is good - but 50 miles further south on the day would have a big impact overall.

 

gfsnh-0-96.png?12

  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND

Think this is Relevant met services over In Eire have issues Red alert âš  warning for west cost and Donegal I would imagine Ian is busy analysing latest output as I belive this will affect parts of Ni and Scotland! Damaging winds gust 150km!

Edited by snowice
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Something people fail to mention is the low that moves SE'wrds over us from the NW mid next week was formed in polar regions, this is a cold low so doesn't need a properly cold feed, I think its what they call a Polar Low but am not sure as they are hard to detect.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

who said it wasnt going to snow in the south?... :spiteful:

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

GFS ensembles show a lot of uncertainty on the behaviour of the first slider, especially how much it disrupts with some members having it as a mature low across the country which is obviously not something we want to see trend. We want to see better amplification in the Atlantic and better disruption with the pattern further West in future Op and ensemble runs to avoid the possibility of a slushy wintry mix scenario rather than the cold and snowy one we all want.

 

graphe4_1000_249_88___.gif

 

Edit.

 

Excellent post above from diagonal along the same lines.

Edited by Mucka
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire/Warwickshire/North Oxfordshire
  • Location: Worcestershire/Warwickshire/North Oxfordshire

Think this is Relevant met services over In Eire have issues Red alert âš  warning for west cost and Donegal I would imagine Ian is busy analysing latest output as I belive this will affect parts of Ni and Scotland! Damaging winds gust 150km!

There is a forum thread for this.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82219-atlantic-storm-14th-15th-january/

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich
  • Weather Preferences: April!
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich

GFS ensembles show a lot of uncertainty on the behaviour of the first slider, especially how much it disrupts with some members having it as a mature low across the country which is obviously not something we want to see trend. We want to see better amplification in the Atlantic and better disruption with the pattern further West in future Op and ensemble runs to avoid the possibility of a slushy wintry mix scenario rather than the cold and snowy one we all want.

 

graphe4_1000_249_88___.gif

 

Edit.

 

Excellent post above from diagonal along the same lines.

Yes, we want to avoid those members that have very low mb pressure as they will no doubt be the "ball" shaped lows DRL mentioned. The mean of about 1010mb will do just fine.......

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ramsgate,East Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: BEASTERLYS
  • Location: Ramsgate,East Kent.

according to the snow charts that summer sun put up earlier, we in east kent get one day of snow but that could easily go either way  :)

I know doesn't look great does it , to get the fun here we need a good old Easterly wth snow showers off a warm North sea.

These frontal situations always deliver inland , but rarely at the coast , I may be wrong and if so great.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

Blimey oh crikey. That's a stunning chart for deep mid winter. I bet the Met Office are twitching now ;)

Ian F was posting earlier and it is a concern of the METO that one or more of those scenario may crop up.It is a highly unstable and very cold set up and when you are surrounded by warmish waters....... :bomb:

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich
  • Weather Preferences: April!
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich

I know doesn't look great does it , to get the fun here we need a good old Easterly wth snow showers off a warm North sea.

These frontal situations always deliver inland , but rarely at the coast , I may be wrong and if so great.

I certainly agree that for us near the East coast, slider lows are a risky way of getting snow as they often go down the centre of the country, missing us altogether. However, there would appear to be quite a few opportunities for snowfall over the next week in an unstable flow.

Also, if the GFS is correct, hopefully a good window for North Sea generated snow showers from an Easterly once next week's low clears to the South.

It's still early days and much can happen, either for better or worse!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Plenty of uncertainty on how this will unfold, some x-rated, so no done deal yet. The op looks one of the best solutions for snow even amongst the cold ones so we have to hope the ensembles start moving in that direction, otherwise...

 

The control although cold is much drier: post-14819-0-53428000-1421257246_thumb.p

 

So D5 still remains the FI and although general cold looks guaranteed for 7 days plus from Friday (22% go milder at D5 due to a brief mild sector) what happens next remains very fluid.

Edited by i'm dreaming of...
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich
  • Weather Preferences: April!
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich

Why are people complaining about not getting snow? The GFS precipitation charts are far from accurate, especially 5+ days out! they details will have inevitably change on every run.

Yes, absolutely. I would urge people not to get hung up on those charts as they change every run and simply cannot be relied on at anything other than short range.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

The sliders are likely to be positioned further south or even on the main event it could just be further north or further south. (March 2013 channel low was pushed further and further south before in tracked in north France.)

 

Considering it is so far away there is no point getting hung up on the current output unless you live in the SW then you want a decent budge SW.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...