Model Output Discussion - 14th Jan 12z Onwards

[SMU]

18z is amplifying the low in the north atlantic at 150 which means more energy going south- if it gets enough going SE watch for a sustained Easterly in FI- this run will be better than the 12z-

Also the cold pool to the east isn't to bad..

S

[Ice Day]

Just think back to last winter, then look at this at 156.  So nice to see in the semi-reliable. 

 

 

[winterof79]

Sunday to Thursday minimum, with -8s encroaching and staying around the UK

 

With snow showers galore

 

Edited January 15, 2015 by winterof79

[Geordiesnow]

surely DPs would have a big influence . as long as they are sub zero   -6 uppers would be o,k

 

Yes they are more than fine when you have an off shore wind(e.g winds blowing from the land) but when they are coming in from the sea, they are marginal uppers especially when you are quite close to the coast. 

[shaky]

The 18z is a snowfest for midland and further north and east! Much better run so far!! Stronger scandi ridge and amplified atlantic!

[Long haul to mild]

so this is your surface cold ahead of the front on the 18z-

 

At this timeframe the front is crossing the W & SW-

 

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2015011518/102-580UK.GIF?15-18

 

Whats clear is if the euros are correct & it slides through its ALL snow on the NE flank, if it slides east the S & SE will turn to sleet & rain.

 

Im still set on a sliding track more SE through the UK....

S

I assume that this is the ppn chart (from 18z GFS) that you are referring to if the front goes East rather than SE Steve?

[Mucka]

Thames streamers piling in no doubt

 

 

Best run of the day, snow for just about everyone.

Edited January 15, 2015 by Mucka

[I remember Atlantic 252]

The 18z is a snowfest for midland and further north and east! Much better run so far!! Stronger scandi ridge and amplified atlantic!

 

It is and the easterly looks better as well, beast on Thursday

[Eugene]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1801.gif - Blocking just to our NE and in the mid atlantic looking much better on this run, cold should last longer than 12Z.

[The Enforcer]

However the Northerly is being toned up in terms of cold since yesterday so that will help in sqeezing that "mild" sector. 

 

Regarding the Northerly, it would certainly hold more potential if the Northerly was more NNE'ly than NNW'ly which is the case at the moment, not much time for the orientation to change either but as you can see, there is sometimes some small upgrades in terms of cold. 

Accepted, but be that as it may, the pesky mild sector is still there on the 18z. Here's a chart from the 2013 example I referred to above:

 

[mountsbaysnow]

Hi I am a newbie to the forums and quite a novice so apologies in advance for my lack of technical knowledge regarding the models.I view these forums daily with great interest and would like to know if this coming cold spell will deliver snow for west cornwall.regards

[weather_it_will]

The Atlantic block is much better on this run, allowing the easterly to last longer across more areas of the UK

 

 

12z

 

 

 

18z

 

[Ali1977]

Not sure, but is a Northerly coming in from Greenland ar 174?

[Cheshire Freeze]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1801.gif - Blocking just to our NE and in the mid atlantic looking much better on this run, cold should last longer than 12Z.

Much much better run thus far. You can see the difference between this and the slop served up earlier. Question is can this be maintained on the 0z GFS and head this way in the 0z ECM?

[snow mad]

Not sure, but is a Northerly coming in from Greenland ar 174?

think another slider coming up?

[bluearmy]

The Atlantic ridge allows a split jet on thus run which will hopefully replenish the euro trough and stop the ridge from sinking as per the 12z

.

Edited January 15, 2015 by bluearmy

[SMU]

I assume that this is the ppn chart (from 18z GFS) that you are referring to if the front goes East rather than SE Steve?

114-779UK.gif

 

Yes- sadly im sceptical it will reach you. Or me. - I expect it all to elongate into 3 vortices & slide across the IOW SSE- that's my forecast trajectory.

But we live in hope- its a fine line........

Great thus far for wales & the NW & eventually the NE-

 

S

Edited January 15, 2015 by Steve Murr

[Tony Beets]

A good old Humber streamer too. Just another scenario playing out but something like this would be good.

[Weathizard]

A much nicer run with cleaner energy going south - looks good out to 168 which is as far as I will look before the inevitable low res breakthrough.

Somewhere in the UK is going to get pasted next week, let's hope we all get in on the action as at *THIS STAGE* I can see there being some very unlucky areas that miss out with some very angry people!

[Ice Day]

I know 'Boom' has been banned by the mods, what about 'Wallop'?

 

 

 

Sold looking easterly, looks to have legs as well!

[If Wishes made Weather]

The Atlantic ridge allows a split jet on thus run which will hopefully replenish the euro trough and stop the ridge from sinking as the 12z. We shall see.

Absolutely - and the mild air is squeezed out of the mid-Atlantic

 

[Mucka]

 

Hmmm will it slide and reload?

Be nice to see it modelled eh?

Edited January 15, 2015 by Mucka

[Long haul to mild]

Much much better run thus far. You can see the difference between this and the slop served up earlier. Question is can this be maintained on the 0z GFS and head this way in the 0z ECM?

Probably just my perception but it always seems that the 0Z runs are good at bursting the bubble created by the 18z!

Let's hope they don't for once as that is a cracking Easterly on the 18z, as you say much better than the short lived one on the 12z.

It's all a long way away of course and I suspect we will see both good and bad runs over the next couple of days before it settles on the solution.

[Ali1977]

Not sure where this is going, beast followed by something from the Arctic....!!! As Ian said, breakdown by next weekend take with a pinch of salt...

Sadly not, shows what I know!!!

Edited January 15, 2015 by Ali1977

[Jason M]

18z looks a good run to me. Talk about squeezing the best out of a bad situation though.

I still think the initial event will be cold mostly rain / sleet in the far SE (love to be wrong though for obvious reasons!), but its looking more interesting for many. Hopefully over the next 5-8 days we will all see some falling snow, even if its not blizzards and deep powder snow!!!!

One good trend is that the Azures high is staying away from Iberia. If it stays further west we remain in the game longer term. Oranges or reds over Iberia though is game over.