Model Output Discussion - 14th Jan 12z Onwards

[Dr. Astro]

Just commentating on that chart at that time. This ties in with the 0z take and is a possibility. I did say that at the time that it was just one run. Surely we are just commentating on the current output and I don't see a problem in that, otherwise we wouldn't have much to say. Though I suspect if I said it showed a snow fest for the whole UK you would not have brought this up?

 

Showers battering the east coast around D8+:  gfs-2-198.png

 

I don't think you get AJ's point.

 

It's not so much what it is showing, but as Fergie said yesterday with his "ad nauseum" comment (Which was rather good) - There is ZERO point in posting these charts for something so far away, as verification levels are just ridiculously low, so therefore there is no real need to be discussing where it will snow, and who will get snow, as I guarantee on the next GFS run, it will be different again.

 

Might as well post a CFS chart 1000 hours away showing where it will rain...

[knocker]

Well thus far its exhibiting the same typical trending to the euros ( mainly ukmo )

Which is

* reduced eastward progression over atlantic features when there are scandi heights present -

* depleted 850 temps from northerly / easterly flows as the real time event draws closer.

My track & trajectory forecast at this stage wouldnt have the front reaching EA or lincs At the moment GFS has it in the north sea..... (120)

S

 

Afraid I'm not following that Steve. As far as I can see the GFS has it re your trajectory. In any case the position of the front at T120 must be problematic as a glance at the METO fax will reveal.

Chart weatherbell

[West is Best]

Stunning run from the 6z. Blimey o' reilly.

 

Just worth repeating too by the way that there's a very real prospect of snowfall Saturday through Sunday: perhaps not major quantities but enough to give lying snow in some places. Any lying snow will only help the situation with the Tuesday slider low.

 

Basically, we're in for a cold snap 

[shaky]

The 06z is slightly further west with the shortwave for Tuesday compared to 0z but then pushes east!! But even then the midlands north still gets plenty of snow out of it!!! If the 12z pushes it further east again then i think that its onto something if not then the other models are right!! Ecm ensembles pretty much keeping the -5 line covering all uk in that time frame so snow for pretty much all the south! !

[TEITS]

This set up would be better for those in the East and SE, Thames streamers and showers penetrating East to West would all be of snow, and probably make it all the way towards Wales and the far SW.

Im afraid the 06Z does not show this. The orientation of the HP actually keeps the very cold air to the N & E of the high and infact moves away from the UK as the run progresses.

[SteveB]

I think we've been here many times before, and thankfully more so over the last 5yrs.

 

As we get closer to the event, we find the devil is in the detail.

 

What we do know is it's going to get colder - cold enough for snow in fact, what we don't know is where it will snow. As I mentioned above, we have been here before, and because of that we also know some will be disappointed while others will fill their boots with the white stuff.

 

It needs to be said again  WAY BETTER THAN ANYTHING SEEN LAST YEAR.

 

6z is an upgrade on the 0z for better distribution of snow, this is good, but it will change again for good or bad.

Edited January 15, 2015 by SteveB

[Polar Maritime]

-8 850's over a large swathe of the UK, -10 uppers just touching the far N/E..

 

[IDO]

I don't think you get AJ's point.

 

It's not so much what it is showing, but as Fergie said yesterday with his "ad nauseum" comment (Which was rather good) - There is ZERO point in posting these charts for something so far away, as verification levels are just ridiculously low, so therefore there is no real need to be discussing where it will snow, and who will get snow, as I guarantee on the next GFS run, it will be different again.

 

Might as well post a CFS chart 1000 hours away showing where it will rain...

 

I really don't get your point, of course things can and will change, that is the nature of the weather, commentating on what is possible and discussing why on this run it will be rain in the south is a learning process and very useful. 

 

Still cold air over the UK at D10: 

Edited January 15, 2015 by Paul
Removed off topic point.

[West is Best]

This set up would be better for those in the East and SE, Thames streamers and showers penetrating East to West would all be of snow, and probably make it all the way towards Wales and the far SW.

 

 

Absolutely right. If you follow the 850Pa charts and then ppn and snow risk charts this could be a belter for the south-east, east Anglia.

 

Big snow potential from this run and much better, much deeper cold, than the previous run. However it is just one run, and the 0z could come back to haunt us. As others have pointed out, we don't want the Canadian low to deepen too much. Fortunately the GFS almost always over deepens lows (today's being a case in point).

[winterof79]

Which is what I said would happen, it happens time and time again! Why I don't know

 

This is looking like another mid/northern affair, I feel for you southerners

Sorry wrong thread...thought I was in model output not moan thread for a minute

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Lets be clear I did not say a 3-5 day marginal colder period is likely but remains a possibility as does a prolonged, very cold spell. The fact is we don't know how it will pan out with regards to an E,ly and neither do the models because lets be honest they are useless with the likely pattern coming up.

 

I am just trying to keep members feet on the ground to avoid some being disappointed.

 

Difference between 0Z/06Z highlights my point.

Hi Dave, it wasn't aimed at you but more the 'feel' of the thread........and I think the 06z will settle some nerves and also show the 'don't believe the single run' advice.

 

For me using my thoughts/method any run that keeps HP to our ENE for latter third of Jan is on the money.....its positioning crucial but imo synoptically it should be there.  Then I anticipate that area to be replaced by troughing as PV moves/remains 'our side' of the hemisphere.  I note BA's comments   

 

 

BFTP

Edited January 15, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Ali1977]

Im afraid the 06Z does not show this. The orientation of the HP actually keeps the very cold air to the N & E of the high and infact moves away from the UK as the run progresses.

Surely the wind is much stronger further South in that set up though?  Therefore showers penetrating further west, along with upers and ground temps supprting them to fall as snow....However I'm still learning so may be totally wrong!!!

[i luv snow]

Some great models at the moment, and whilst I commend those looking further ahead for extended/prolonged cold, people are missing that the models are showing a fairly potent cold spell starting TOMORROW! I'm not too worried about after next week, but this weekend into early next week looks cold, potentially snowy(no detail on how much or where just yet) and considering how long it has been since most saw snow, that will do. I haven't seen it for over 3 years as I lived in Australia and last winter was snowless for me, so very much excited for the week ahead!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

-8 850's over a large swathe of the UK, -10 uppers just touching the far N/E..

 

That would be bitterly cold no doubt

 

BFTP

[winterof79]

-8 850's over a large swathe of the UK, -10 uppers just touching the far N/E..

 

Question is PM,is Teits looking at same output because that screams heavy snow showers pushing well inland.

[Polar Maritime]

That would be bitterly cold no doubt

 

BFTP

 

Yip, -15c sub-zero over Scotland.. And the rest of the UK is in the freezer 

 

Edited January 15, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[fulham snow]

Weather on line go for very cold next week but not sure how accurate they are.

All on a knife edge hard to work without keep checking this Model output 

[Polar Maritime]

Question is PM,is Teits looking at same output because that screams heavy snow showers pushing well inland.

 

I can not speak for Teits.. But these synoptic's do show Snow showers pushing inland off the North Sea, But devil is in the detail at this range. All-in-all a bitter cold week coming up, Something we have not seen yet this winter or last. Detail yet to be resolved, We all know how these set-up's can spring up surprises out of nowhere.  

 

Edited January 15, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Ali1977]

Even if the cold only lasts till next weekend, we are still in Jan and the continent is now much colder...A reload looks plausible and the strat/MJO/OPI may just lead to an even colder hit in Feb. 

[carinthian]

Thanks for that Nick. As you report no place can be identified as to get or not get snow. There seems to be a number of posts saying the south is unlikely to see any. However, the snow portal service we have this morning continues to show risk of some snowfall in the SE of England and parts of Northern France on Sunday, rather than the favoured NE.  Beyond that, its just impossible to pin point the snowfall extent with the forecast occlusion next week. One thing for sure, real wintry weather is due to arrive. 

 C

Interesting latest fax chart from Met Office for Sunday. Shows most of the country under 528 dam line. How can you pin point snowfall from that chart  ? However, as mentioned above just a hint of a small wave could form along the boundary of the colder air mass to affect the SE of England and parts of Northern France and may produce some snow in places in that region.

C

[tallsmithy]

Hi all, still relatively new to this model reading malarkey, just want to ask where you get those charts from that have french text on??

Cheers

[IDO]

No surprise JMA week 1 anomaly has the UK ensconced in a cold upper trough: 

 

Week 2 keeps us in a general colder upper flow with a Euro trough and the UK backing towards a more NW'ly flow:

 

   

 

Week 3-4 anomaly and that theme of colder than average PM flow is maintained:

 

 

Not a bad set of winter charts for early Feb.

[Polar Maritime]

Hi all, still relatively new to this model reading malarkey, just want to ask where you get those charts from that have french text on??

Cheers

 

Here you go http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=code&mode=0&mode3h=0&runpara=0&carte=1

[Trom]

Absolutely right. If you follow the 850Pa charts and then ppn and snow risk charts this could be a belter for the south-east, east Anglia.

 

Big snow potential from this run and much better, much deeper cold, than the previous run. However it is just one run, and the 0z could come back to haunt us. As others have pointed out, we don't want the Canadian low to deepen too much. Fortunately the GFS almost always over deepens lows (today's being a case in point).

Don't forget though that this is a new model - so whether it has the same tendencies remains to be seen

[Boro Snow]

Hi all, still relatively new to this model reading malarkey, just want to ask where you get those charts from that have french text on??

Cheers

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=1&ech=204