Model Output Discussion - 14th Jan 12z Onwards

[Downpour]

Gets there by 174...

[Weathizard]

18z is good, especially longer term with the building blocks being put into place for a more prolonged cold spell. However, shorter term the uppers seem to be gradually being filtered down which is a bit of a worry re: snowy nationwide slider possibilities.

[kold weather]

From a pure synoptic point of view the charts around 168-192hrs are very impressive, its not quite the amazing northern blocking seen during the late 00s winters (and obviously Dec 2010) but it is good and miles better than aything since early Spring 2013.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1981.gif

[Snowman.]

This is like the most perfect block we have seen in a while.

 

 

[chionomaniac]

The beast awaketh.

 

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

O my days look at those uppers heading our way

[Bristawl Si]

Snow risk Saturday night now as well, as a trough pushes down from North, according to weather just now on the beeb.

A very dynamic situ indeed, even in the shorter term.

[pandit-scholar]

A pretty impressive GFS chart at 186hrs, with high level Greenland blocking, and a pretty strong one as well. Still along way to go and the proof of the pudding will be the taste in the end.

[bluearmy]

The first pub run for the new gfs op could be memorable if the heights to the ne split and allow that low into the flow.

EDIT: doesnt look like it but I'd take the run anyway!

Edited January 14, 2015 by bluearmy

[SMU]

well *IF* it lands this will be the icing on the cake for most

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011418/gfsnh-1-216.png?18

 

THAT is a snow machine for the NE.  you may as well wave goodbye to places like Durham etc.

 

PLUS blocking to the west tilted & aligned favourably for sustainability

 

S

[Ice Day]

At 216, the easterly is bringing very cold uppers across the country.  -10 into East Midlands north.  Very lovely stuff!!

 

 

[damianslaw]

Not strictly model related - but we have 1074 users on this thread now - highest its been all winter I suspect, and indicative of an impending cold spell.

 

Back to the models - I'm keeping an eye on the small low pressure development being modelled to anchor itself southwards over the weekend - dare I say it has the makings of a shallow polar low! - keep an eye on the FAX charts.

[SE Blizzards]

After a couple or so of Winters in hiding, he finally awakens...

 

 

 

EDIT: Beaten to it by 50,000 other members! 

Edited January 14, 2015 by SE Blizzards

[Geordiesnow]

One encouraging thing for me regarding this set up is that the cold is forecast to come in during Friday and we see the first piece of the jigsaw developing then with some mid atlantic heights so its not like we have to wait for 132 hours for the pattern to change because its changing much before then. 

 

The question mark will be, will the 2nd amplified ridge occur as it does now or does it upgrade or downgrade, obviously its encouraging too see the GFS looking like the UKMO and ECM in this respect but as we know, that does not mean its a certainty by any means however its important for some decent amplification to occur to help sink that low that develops to the South of Greenland.

[andy989]

Nice pub run so far,and notice those purples creeping into Scandinavia...

 

gfsnh-1-168.png

I'm going to north Finland beginning of February, interesting.  

[chicken soup]

The key is for the low to just push a little bit more south to avoid the SE picking up a wet sowester from the Channel. It's not far off a dumping but at the moment what is shown on the models is a cold rain fest in the reliable timeframe. Thereafter they could be snow chances a plenty in southeastern parts but before then we need the feature 100 miles or more further south than currently progged.

Imby post if ever there was one....cold rain fest for you maybe.....but a snowfest for many others.

[seabreeze86]

Wow the pub run is unreal. The beast from the east is back.no quick route out of the freezer if this comes off. To good to be true perhaps but lets just enjoy the run as it is epic.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011418/gfsnh-0-210.png?18

 

With the north sea currently warmer than average the convection of the north sea would be explosive.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomnight.1.12.2015.gif

Edited January 14, 2015 by seabreeze86

[West is Best]

Snow risk Saturday night now as well, as a trough pushes down from North, according to weather just now on the beeb.

A very dynamic situ indeed, even in the shorter term.

 

Yes I was going to mention this. Actually snow progged off this 18z GFS both Saturday and Sunday if you run the snow risk and then precipitation charts. It's such an unstable flow, and progressively colder, that there's the possibility of a good covering in places. As you say, the BBC are really pushing this now.

[Eugene]

Long time Steve, yeah there is a lovely shape to the upper high feature, also being re-enforced from the west by the heights increasing into Greenland. Just need to shift that upper low near the south of England far enough to the SE to really develop a good E/NE flow.

 

Should have at least another 7 days of cold from 168hrs onwards on the 18z.

 

 

Yes a better run than 12Z for our long term prospects but i prefer 12Z short to medium term for middle of next week as 18Z looks more marginal to me with more of a wintry mix, btw nice to see you back Kold, haven't seen you posting in a while.

[Freezing-Point]

The beast is coming in like a freight train.   Fingers crossed something even remotely like that verifies at t212.

[West is Best]

Yes I was going to mention this. Actually snow progged off this 18z GFS both Saturday and Sunday if you run the snow risk and then precipitation charts. It's such an unstable flow, with troughs moving south, and progressively colder, that there's the possibility of a good covering in places. As you say, the BBC are really pushing this now.

[Jason M]

No ifs, no buts

This is a cold chart.......

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=216&mode=0

In mid / late Jan as well!!!

[Cloud 10]

well *IF* it lands this will be the icing on the cake for most

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011418/gfsnh-1-216.png?18

 

THAT is a snow machine for the NE.  you may as well wave goodbye to places like Durham etc.

 

PLUS blocking to the west tilted & aligned favourably for sustainability

 

S

 

We will grin and bear it.

 

Can we get some retrogression to Greenland and a fresh northerly plunge,or will low res scupper it?

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

What interests me, is that the potential kick off date is exactly the same as when 1947 started! 

Very interesting times and model watching coming up for sure !!    

[ITSY]

We will grin and bear it.

 

Can we get some retrogression to Greenland and a fresh northerly plunge,or will low res scupper it?

 

gfsnh-0-234.png

 

well THIS might suit East Anglia a little better too, Steve! TBH with slider lows the first order the West get a decent shot at something, the North is prone to see something given altitude etc with any uppers of this sort, and the East/NE/SE could also benefit massively from the way this run goes. A little something (or a huge something) for everyone! (well, most of us anyway). Certainly on that basis the best run I have seen in many a year!