Model Output Discussion - 14th Jan 12z Onwards

[bluearmy]

Come on BA, you should know that the precipitation charts on the GFS at that range are hardly the most accurate things in the world.

 

of course i dont see it like that nick. i was just illustrating that some are quoting that gfs run to be the most snowy ever seen and yet the depths by day 9 are only really notable over higher ground.

 

just trying to pull back expectations a little.  perhaps it had the opposite effect !

[Liam J]

Sorry not really model related but Helen on the BBC weather broadcast has just said we could be heading for the coldest spell of weather for over 2 years

Edited January 14, 2015 by Liam J

[Mucka]

Genral synoptic ECM is pretty much in line with UKMO and the GFS looks isolated by day 5/6

 

[Neilsouth]

Sorry not really model related but Helen on the BBC weather broadcast has just said we could be heading for the coldest spell of weather for over 2 years

 

I saw the same and its not just that forecast either but they have also mentioned it on twitter with model'd charts

[Met4Cast]

ECM by 144 pushes the cold air away from the UK.

 

Seems to be that the trend is towards a more Westerly based -NAO, never particularly good for the UK. 

[Mark Neal.]

Evening.. If those interested I find the xc weather forecast very handy when looking at what the snow predictions are showing for next week.. Here is a link... http://xcweather.co.uk/forecast
- Handy to see what the GFS run shows on a local scale..

Here is a snippet for here (Oxford)..

Edited January 14, 2015 by Mark N

[Neilsouth]

Genral synoptic ECM is pretty much in line with UKMO and the GFS looks isolated by day 5/6

 

 

 

That's exactly what I was looking at, apart from the GFS (Even that looks iffy) I don't see next week as a particularity great cold spell, it's either way to slack or with a low pressure system slap bang over us and south westerly winds 

Edited January 14, 2015 by TruthSpeaker

[gottolovethisweather]

FWIW ECM 12z op liking the sliders, i.e. south east diving troughs too. A cold to very cold outlook beyond the weekend is starting to look nailed on. Snowfall specifics don't even go there. Eye candy for cold loving folk and with some transient stuff about too, anything could happen literally anywhere in the UK. For that last point we should be grateful. How often does a seven day period contain several opportunities for organised snow/wintry showers. Answer very rarely if ever, bar the best Winters of old. My feet are firmly on the ground over the daily expectations but something wintry is incoming for most of us all within the reliable, just.

Edited January 14, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[Mucka]

JMA 120h halfway between Euros and GFS so maybe close. GFS looks too flat and too far East with pattern this afternoon but plenty of developments to come.

 

Edited January 14, 2015 by Mucka

[ukpaul]

ECM by 144 pushes the cold air away from the UK.

 

Seems to be that the trend is towards a more Westerly based -NAO, never particularly good for the UK. 

 

In fact the direction of that system looks as though it's trying a bit too hard to get to an easterly - height rises up by Greenland, low heading to Iberia. Looks a little too much for me, but you never know.

[Captain Shortwave]

With the ECM further west than the UKMO, we end up in a south westerly flow which raises temperatures in the south, though there would be some very potent showers, especially in southern counties with thunder likely.

The northern half of the UK should still be cold. Before then there are still good chances for snowfall. Strangely enough you need heights to the north east to elongate the low instead here we end up with a round feature which can draw milder air in from the south west.

Easterly by day 7, very cold in the north, again not so cold in the south. Day 8 is fantastic.

Edited January 14, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[bradymk]

ECM 168 chart from yesterday

 

ECM 144 chart from today

 

Low further west and more trough disruption, and we all know it will probably end up even further west by +0

Edited January 14, 2015 by bradythemole

[shaky]

Just remember that in this type of situation even uppers of -3 or -4 can be enough for some serious heavy snowfall especially with embedded cold at the surface!! Sure steve murr would agree!! The ecm up to 144 hours is a thing of beauty and drops that low south compared to this mornings output!!

[chris55]

ECM det, although with nuances regarding the slider next week, overall Id say its a better way to a more sustained easterly type flow. And an improvement on the 00z.

 

[Geordiesnow]

ECM by 144 pushes the cold air away from the UK.

 

Seems to be that the trend is towards a more Westerly based -NAO, never particularly good for the UK. 

 

One run is a trend? ECM is a decent run thus far if your looking for the overall picture of cold air returning and a slight northerly flow developing with the the possibility of a slider. 

 

Of course if your looking at the detail then no doubt some people may not like the 144 hour chart but for me, its alright and the cold may soon return.

[Summer Sun]

Easterly winds at t168 on ECM

 

 

Plenty of cold air to our east if we can keep it going

 

Edited January 14, 2015 by Summer Sun

[SMU]

I am going to do a full round up for 9pm tonight- I believe once again that whilst the ECM has the flow pattern correct I think at 144 once again its over deepening the low- as a result of this at 144 the model turn lifts the cold out of the South & SW / SE bringing rain. ( after initial sleet & snow )

It doesn't matter for the North & NE though & NW with copious amounts of snow...

 

The UKMO looks spot on tonight with the 990 low.

 

Other than that initial hiccup the ECM looks great but far different ( as expected ) from the 00z

S

 

 

*** 192 is ALMOST a BOOM chart ****

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015011412/ECM1-192.GIF?14-0

Edited January 14, 2015 by Steve Murr

[Geordiesnow]

ECM 168 chart from yesterday

ECM1-168.GIF

 

ECM 144 chart from today

ECM1-144.gif

 

Low further west and more trough disruption, and we all know it will probably end up even further west by +0

 

But better amplification on this run, much prefer tonights 144 hour chart to yesterdays 168 hour chart. 

 

That is all detail though and we all know what happens when you read too much into the detail of each run! I don't think there is too many complaints for cold weather fans tonight, as for snowfall then maybe that is a different story, very hard to pinpoint at this range and under such a slack set up! 

[bluearmy]

whilst it may look exciting, we dont want such a deep depression. too much mixing out of the boundary layers due to too much wind and less chance of snowfall. at this range, will probably be wrong on the track or the intensity. (perhaps both!)

[Met4Cast]

One run is a trend? ECM is a decent run thus far if your looking for the overall picture of cold air returning and a slight northerly flow developing with the the possibility of a slider. 

 

 

GFS - Easterly bias.

 

UKMO - Further West than GFS

 

ECM - Further west than GFS and UKMO

 

I'd say given the above, the trend is definitely for the low to be further West than the GFS currently projects. 

[Eugene]

People criticising others over analysing snow accumulation charts yet are doing the same with ECM 12Z T+144 hrs chart, i'm going with NAVGEM and GFS with a slacker feature and cold air over most of the UK.

[Ali1977]

I'm sure the Southerers would sacrifice a day of slightly warmer weather to set up the ECM chart at 192....proper cold!!!

[TEITS]

Belting E,ly at +192 from the ECM.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015011412/ECM1-192.GIF?14-0

 

I see some are focussed on where it might snow. Honestly do not waste your time at the moment. In all my years of following the weather I don't recall one time when a slider LP has bought snowfall to my location. Just watch how nearer the time the slider will be modelled to be further W.

[bluearmy]

ecm 12z op is similar to the 00z control. also, quite like yesterday's gfs 18z para

[Neilsouth]

 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015011412/ECM1-192.GIF?14-0

 

But Steve how many times has this been shown on the models in previous spells, it very rarely happens. At most it moves off to the east, or fills in situ. I just don't see that happening tbh. Look what happened last time! Low pressure forecasted to dive into france, instead it moved to the east and it rained

Edited January 14, 2015 by TruthSpeaker