Model Output Discussion - 14th Jan 12z Onwards

[snow mad]

Easy for you  to make this comment given your location , other people are just searching for what we all want , so naturally they are asking questions from those who may or may not know....

the thing is nobody knows so the question is pointless as many have already said! Just calm down I'm sure we will get some snow before the next ten days are out as the low is likely to sink further south and west bringing an easterly of some sort

[throwoff]

I agree with most people on here, most of the country are looking in line for something. I don't think anyone is expecting blizzards and 19ft drifts in the southeast but I'll be chuffed to bits to see some falling snow.

[Iceaxecrampon]

12Z

 

Unbelievably bonkers synoptics next week.

 

This is at T+174

 

 

"Polar" LP sliding SW all the way from Greenland  - no chance? but it's there.

 

Ian

Edited January 14, 2015 by Iceaxecrampon

[I remember Atlantic 252]

12Z

 

Unbelievably bonkers synoptics next week.

 

This is at T+174

 

h500slpCAHKZZCK.png

 

Polar LP all the way from Greenland  - no chance? but it's there.

 

Ian

 

174 is serious FI, I'm not excited just yet

[beng]

Interesting fax chart

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=72&carte=2000

 

Possibly snow/wintry mix for Ireland, Wales, Southern England, S Midlands as early as Saturday?

[Pembroke Dangler]

The sliders are likely to be positioned further south or even on the main event it could just be further north or further south. (March 2013 channel low was pushed further and further south before in tracked in north France.)

 

Considering it is so far away there is no point getting hung up on the current output unless you live in the SW then you want a decent budge SW.

If history is to be taken into consideration then might we see the azores displaced further south and west and the disruption of the trough occuring further south and west to correct the eastern byass of most of the models this far out. What ever happens i bet the cheif forcaster at the met is going to get his pencil out to do some corrections purely based on the fact of these historical disruptions. How much history is taken into account in these set ups?

[bluearmy]

Nope. Just a rational, measured look at all the evidence. Buckets of uncertainty prevail, as should be massively apparent from current output. Posting and over-analysing zillions of GFS PPN phase charts is an utterly pointless waste of bandwidth at this tentative juncture.

 

ian, do exeter still see this as a 3/5 day situation before mobilty returns?  i note the extended ecm ens swung away from the azores ridge and back to the trough. are they in broad agreement with MOGREPS ?

 

incidentally, the GEFS 12z through week 2 also brings back the low anomoly though at that range, not worth over analysis.

Edited January 14, 2015 by bluearmy

[Neilsouth]

I have to say the S.E is looking dry....whilst the rest take a pasting

 

Maybe, but everything is way to slack allowing milder air to intermix...

 

Can't see all the excitement personally! Would rather have a siberian high pushing deep cold air in from the north east

[snowice]

There is a forum thread for this.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82219-atlantic-storm-14th-15th-january/

I know thanks but it is important information and is Relevant as the levelled warning has been increased since 12Z

[Eugene]

Maybe, but everything is way to slack allowing milder air to intermix...

 

Can't see all the excitement personally! Would rather have a siberian high pushing deep cold air in from the north east

 

 

Well for snow fans next week is like the Nirvana of setups on GFS 12Z.

[bluearmy]

 

thats the day 9 snow depth from the gfs 12z

 

not bad for the UK but hardly how some of you are seeing it

[Mucka]

ECM 96h and we still see a narrow band of rain sleet and snow pushing down from the North on Sunday.

 

[cornish snow]

gfs_snow_depth_uk2_33.png

 

thats the day 9 snow depth from the gfs 12z

 

not bad for the UK but hardly how some of you are seeing it

Love this chart,SW gets buried.

[picog]

If the current charts come off, it will be hats off the the NetWeather team predicting a cold-heart to winter!

Well done guys.

[A.J]

please stick to the model discussion please folks.....ramps/moans/one liners to go in their relevant threads......and please the GFS ppn chart question has been done to death today, no more please or else I'll scream! 

[PLANET THANET]

gfs_snow_depth_uk2_33.png

 

thats the day 9 snow depth from the gfs 12z

 

not bad for the UK but hardly how some of you are seeing it

thats because you dont live on the south/east kent coast, unfortunately as in all cases like this imbyism creeps in, and allthough I am not an expert like a lot of you on here, even I understand that things can alter at short notice

[chris55]

Some very cold temps over the snow fields on GFS! Long way to go, but a moderate risk of snow for parts of England and Wales into next week. Nice to finally have something to keep us interested eh.

 

[Eugene]

[snowangel32]

gfs_snow_depth_uk2_33.png

 

thats the day 9 snow depth from the gfs 12z

 

not bad for the UK but hardly how some of you are seeing it

Looking good but seriously there's no way at predicting ppn at this point in time. Like has already been said this is no done deal and that first low is crucial to how next week plays out so until the track of that is nailed i wont be getting the sledge out just yet.

[knocker]

I see there is a 180kt jet running NE into the UK later in the GFS run. Just thought I would mention it en passant.

[ANYWEATHER]

Nope. Just a rational, measured look at all the evidence. Buckets of uncertainty prevail, as should be massively apparent from current output. Posting and over-analysing zillions of GFS PPN phase charts is an utterly pointless waste of bandwidth at this tentative juncture.

Indeed, I don't understand folks "over-analysis"  at this far out, November/December 2010 saw many unexpected snowfalls at zero range, models do struggle with precip  under these picticular synoptics

[shaky]

Tasty 120 hours chart from the ecm!! Disruption slightly further west compared to gfs and take a look at the amplification in the atlantic!!

[Nick L]

gfs_snow_depth_uk2_33.png

 

thats the day 9 snow depth from the gfs 12z

 

not bad for the UK but hardly how some of you are seeing it

 

Come on BA, you should know that the precipitation charts on the GFS at that range are hardly the most accurate things in the world.

[bluearmy]

Tasty 120 hours chart from the ecm!! Disruption slightly further west compared to gfs and take a look at the amplification in the atlantic!!

 

very similar to ukmo over the uk

[Cloud 10]

gfs_snow_depth_uk2_33.png

 

thats the day 9 snow depth from the gfs 12z

 

not bad for the UK but hardly how some of you are seeing it

 

I like the fact that chart is in inches.