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Model Output Discussion - 14th Jan 12z Onwards

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I have heard that the GFS won't be ready till 5pm. Not sure if that is true though?

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I have heard that the GFS won't be ready till 5pm. Not sure if that is true though?

I think it will be around 30 Mins later than the old op used to be.

Guess we'll find out soon enough.

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I have heard that the GFS won't be ready till 5pm. Not sure if that is true though?

 

Untrue. It's arriving on Wetterzentrale.

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Good post from Mucka there :) Im glad everyone is seemingly confident, or as confident as we can be of a cold spell, seeing as its still just outside of the reliable i think? Good enough agreement in the models though and the earlier update from Ian F in the last thread helps a lot as its a bonus to have METO now coming onboard.

Edited by Winter Cold

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I have heard that the GFS won't be ready till 5pm. Not sure if that is true though?

 

Updating on wetterzentral as we speak

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsgfseur.html

 

:)

 

EDIT

 

meteociel now updating as well

 

http://translate.google.co.uk/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.meteociel.fr%2Fmodeles%2Fgfse_cartes.php&act=url

Edited by Summer Sun

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Regarding ecm data, find this link prety good
 

www.wunderground.com/wundermap

Click on data then settings, choose ecm then which ever chart you need, has snowfall option though doubt its accuracy

Sorry not hyperlink, on phone and cant work it out

Edited by Nick L
Hyperlink added :)

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Untrue. It's arriving on Wetterzentrale.

 

Well spotted, I've got it running on meteociel and that is some windstorm up North (945hpa give or take at t+18hrs). Whilst eyes are firmly on future developments, let us not forget the more immediate events and hope and trust that everybody stays safe in the affected region.  :help:

Edited by gottolovethisweather

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It's such a similar set up to January 2013 it's uncanny and from what I can remember these types of synopsis have a starting point to Far East and then all of a sudden closer to the event you get westward corrections! Imby we did well the last time this happened! Anyone else think this is something that could happen again?

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In defence of the mod thread,it never operates in the 'now ' it's always days ahead of current weather, the regionals will be where talk of the storm is likely to be,or the thread dedicated to storms.

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I love the fact everybody is so fixated on cold weather, there isn't a single comment about the 75+mph storm going to hit tonight.

Well, I am, it looks bad.

 

See here, https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82281-model-output-discussion-14th-jan-12z-onwards/?p=3118171

 

Nothing wrong with focussing on all that is on offer in this wonderful British climate of ours, anyhow. I also noted that we do seem to forget what's happening under our very noses sometimes though. Anyway guys n gals, where are your updates, complete with beautiful charts and wondrous analysis.  :clapping:

Edited by gottolovethisweather

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That feature still there on the GFS P, snow spreading se and better upstream at T96hrs. A good start so far, long may it continue!

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Well I suppose the first area of interest as far as cold spell is concerned will the embedded trough in the NW flow. (Steve M talked about this I think a couple of times)

 

gfs-0-96.png?12

 

Could bring a band of sleet and snow South across the breadth of the country on Sunday.

 

Edit

Nick got there first.

Edited by Mucka

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It's not the P anymore Nick. Its the GFS.

Yes its weird getting used to that, its a shame they couldn't keep both going then we'd have more to talk about! lol

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First slider snow possibilities

 

gfsnh-0-132.png?12gfs-2-132.png?12gfsnh-2-138.png?12

 

850's not that cold but surface temps very chilly.

 

gfs-9-126.png?12

Edited by Mucka

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Snow for the SE on Saturday if GFS is correct

 

gfs-2-72.png?12

 

Maybe some more widespread snow Monday as a band of rain moves in from the west and hits the colder air

 

gfs-2-126.png?12

 

After a long wait the wait for a cold snowy spell could be over by early next week

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Good to see the GFS keeping that nice little feature... Someone will get a dumping from that.

 

gfs-2-90.png?12?12

 

gfs-2-96.png?12?12

 

So far so good, maybe a little better at the moment.

 

Edit: Get your shovels out:

 

gfs-2-138.png?12?12

Edited by Dr. Astro

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I love the fact everybody is so fixated on cold weather, there isn't a single comment about the 75+mph storm going to hit tonight.

Well, I am, it looks bad.

Having taken the brunt of the storms last year, I'm not actually that worried. The winds speeds have downgraded somewhat for the coasts and is now not really much to speak about inland. The only place I'd be keeping a close eye on is Northern Ireland and the Western Isles. 90 mph gusts not far away, a little change in track there and I'd be worrying. But not here. 70mph won't disrupt much in the middle of the night. We were often above 80mph last year.

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