Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Sign in to follow this  
A.J

South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion - 1300z 12/1/15 ------>

Recommended Posts

Latest run of the GFS, being compared to 2010. You can but only laugh.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Latest run of the GFS, being compared to 2010. You can but only laugh.

Yes i did laugh. Some of the nonsense that some of the copycat internet posters write in that mad thread is laughable.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

just caught the bbc forecast at 1055 and it showed a few if not small snow showers in our vicintiy on thursday!

 

well we can dream!!

 

fromey

 

edit- GFS 6z looks a little better, i think!! hard to make head and tail of it all. :cc_confused:

Edited by fromey

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think there is interest for some in this region as we go from Wed to Thursday - there may be enough precipitation and cold air to give some falls of snow (showery), and especially for the usual suspects at height. After that the really cold air is expected over the weekend and we will be relying on troughs to pep up any showers and as ever the wind direction will be crucial. After that its all to play for - far too often NWP for 7 days ahead and longer is taken as gospel - even with ensemble support things can still change as we get closer. There is a kind of madness in these forums - we spend months looking for colder weather and then when it appears we get obsessed with the breakdown. I for one and looking forward to a cold northerly which has a chance of giving a bit of snow to my area - may not be 12 inches on the ground for 2 weeks, but that is never likely in Warminster...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For what it's worth the latest GFS

Chart weatherbell

 

post-12275-0-83498800-1422273313_thumb.p

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For what it's worth the latest GFS

Chart weatherbell

Looking good for Exmoor and the Quantocks from that chart in terms of potential snow depth

 

Just read a couple of posts in the MOD thread, blimey the knives are out again  :nonono:

Edited by Rich_Clements

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking good for Exmoor and the Quantocks from that chart in terms of potential snow depth

 

Just read a couple of posts in the MOD thread, blimey the knives are out again  :nonono:

 

That map looks quite accurate i'd say for snow amounts (0.01 for most)  :rofl:  :rofl:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think there is interest for some in this region as we go from Wed to Thursday - there may be enough precipitation and cold air to give some falls of snow (showery), and especially for the usual suspects at height. After that the really cold air is expected over the weekend and we will be relying on troughs to pep up any showers and as ever the wind direction will be crucial. After that its all to play for - far too often NWP for 7 days ahead and longer is taken as gospel - even with ensemble support things can still change as we get closer. There is a kind of madness in these forums - we spend months looking for colder weather and then when it appears we get obsessed with the breakdown. I for one and looking forward to a cold northerly which has a chance of giving a bit of snow to my area - may not be 12 inches on the ground for 2 weeks, but that is never likely in Warminster...

What 'really cold air' is that then?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It pains me that someone from the lizard has seen some snow before me this year :nonono:

Slowly but surely edging to the 2 years without snow mark!

That's not the spirit is it?

If i could have,i'd have given you mine :)  Honest :spiteful:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That map looks quite accurate i'd say for snow amounts (0.01 for most)  :rofl:  :rofl:

Going home to check my micrometer, to ensure I can capture the event when it happens.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What 'really cold air' is that then?

06 GFS has 850s trending down over the weekend (-7 for me by Monday). Also to some extent the countryfile forecast last night.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Met Office alert has been issued @ 10:45 today.

It says "The probability of freezing conditions is ...................10%"

Yes a whole 10%

After yesterday's Express headlines from Piers and his call to the PM to get CORBA prepared a whole 10% probability means at least we don't have to get too excited.

Edited by Dorsetbred

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Right I know where I will be Tuesday midnight then.

 

From Bournemouth Echo today, they say " Light snow snow is predicted for Ferndown, Ringwood and Blandford, with sleet on the cards for Bournemouth and Christchurch. Corfe Castle is set for  a midnight thunderstorm."

Edited by Dorsetbred

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

06 GFS has 850s trending down over the weekend (-7 for me by Monday). Also to some extent the countryfile forecast last night.

Maybe Monday yes, not the weekend.

 

Monday is 7 days away..lol. The last cold event downgraded within a day or so.

Edited by MPG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Very close one for Wednesday and Thursday, potential for snow across a lot of South West and South, hope if the winds are on our side (North Westerly, or even West North Westerly) then i think even the island will have a good shot of this! especially over higher ground

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

All this talk of will it/won't it snow and outside right now Spring feels in the air with the temperature at 9.1c and hazy sunshine!

 

Sat here with ice on my lower back after slipping on a wet step this morning, ouch!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Right I know where I will be Tuesday midnight then.

 

From Bournemouth Echo today, they say " Light snow snow is predicted for Ferndown, Ringwood and Blandford, with sleet on the cards for Bournemouth and Christchurch. Corfe Castle is set for  a midnight thunderstorm."

 

Wow that's impressive, a midnight thunderstorm. Must get myself to Corfe by 11:55pm, don't want to miss it.... :rofl:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Very close one for Wednesday and Thursday, potential for snow across a lot of South West and South, hope if the winds are on our side (North Westerly, or even West North Westerly) then i think even the island will have a good shot of this! especially over higher ground

 

The more westerly that airflow is the better as currently central and eastern west country areas like Bristol, Gloucester, wilshire and most of somerset will be too sheltered by the Welch mountains.

 

Elevated areas especially of Devon, Cornwall look like doing well from this sort of setup currently.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wow that's impressive, a midnight thunderstorm. Must get myself to Corfe by 11:55pm, don't want to miss it.... :rofl:

Yes, me too. I can barely contain my excitement.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Right I know where I will be Tuesday midnight then.

From Bournemouth Echo today, they say " Light snow snow is predicted for Ferndown, Ringwood and Blandford, with sleet on the cards for Bournemouth and Christchurch. Corfe Castle is set for a midnight thunderstorm."

I'm starting to think that's an error? That's the second time it has showed that exact thing at Corfe castle, it was the same a few weeks back.

Edited by Mapantz

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Makes me pig sick seeing news of this massive snow storm to hit NE states. 45-75cm of snow. I'd be happy with 3-6cm so I Could take the nipper sledging, they will able to jump out of the flipping top window come Wednesday morning!  :angry:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I give up chasing for snow! It clearly isn't going happen. I think that it would be more time and cost productive to take a flight to New York and get buried. The south sucks for snow hoper like me! I just hope one winter we may have a decent fall but i just have a gut feeling this isn't our year! :-( 

 

On the plus side we get better summers down here so it balances out i'm sure !

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For what it's worth the latest GFS

Chart weatherbell

See that little finger of PPN going up through Oxfordshire that is rain? That is slap bang over me! Haha.

Things like that used to happen frequently when I lived up in Leicester. Snow skirting round me and missing by a matter of 10 miles sometimes.

I think I brought the 'no snow' curse down to Oxford with me :(

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Makes me pig sick seeing news of this massive snow storm to hit NE states. 45-75cm of snow. I'd be happy with 3-6cm so I Could take the nipper sledging, they will able to jump out of the flipping top window come Wednesday morning!  :angry:

I've been in New York, in February, when they had snow, I can honestly say I've never been so cold in my life. I can't remember what the actual temperature was as the flashing weather signs all around downtown Manhattan were warning of wind chill instead of actual temperature...... -27c! I can tell you that's cold, too blinking cold, colder still if you're daft enough to go to the top of the Rockefeller building, after dark when it blowing a hoolie, and wander around outside taking photos.  Fantastic view though!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...