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South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion - 1300z 12/1/15 ------>


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Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire

    A overnight low of -1.9c here. Currently -0.2c. Lovely frost once again.

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    I have a plan......   All this marginal/north of the M4 malarkey is too boring to tolerate any longer, we've got to do something. Considering just how much rain we get down here, we could have the m

    Agreed. Trough circa 3am may extend snow showers across even to S of London (hence UKMO warning amended). Meanwhile, latest UKV and MOGREPS signal for snow remains particularly strong for Exmoor and M

    What a beauty!   By far the best chart of the Winter, very much deserving of an OMG for this regional.      You couldn't make it up, just remember as a NWP model chart at t+84 hours, it is jus

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    Posted
  • Location: Peasedown St John.N.E.Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Fair to Foul...
  • Location: Peasedown St John.N.E.Somerset

    Cloudy. 5.0c. Light S. Westerly breeze. 2.5km/h.. Dry. No frost.

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    Reading between the lines, the current meto thinking is that in spite of how good the charts look, it still won't be cold enough for snow in lowland southern locations. :(

    Can't get excited about cold from now on, it would have to be epic cold to get lying snow for my location.

     

    Hills and further North & East in our area ( Gloucester , Swindon should be alright) Exmoor/ Mendips also, but here on the coast, only epic cold will see me get snow.

     

    So, as always at this time of year, my thoughts turn to Spring warmth & storms.

    Edited by SteveB
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    Posted
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny summers. cold snowy winters
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl

    Wouldn't worry! Channel islands had lying snow for 3 days in march 2013. I had snow on the ground for 3 days in mid Feb 94 and in those days i lived on the coast in Dorset. Plenty of time yet

    Can't get excited about cold from now on, it would have to be epic cold to get lying snow for my location.

     

    Hills and further North & East in our area ( Gloucester , Swindon should be alright) Exmoor/ Mendips also, but here on the coast, only epic cold will see me get snow.

     

    So, as always at this time of year, my thoughts turn to Spring warmth & storms.

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    Wouldn't worry! Channel islands had lying snow for 3 days in march 2013. I had snow on the ground for 3 days in mid Feb 94 and in those days i lived on the coast in Dorset. Plenty of time yet

    I hear your words, but Weston is difficult enough to get snow at the best of times, and we saw nothing in that cold spell in 2013.

     

    Got to be epic from now on in to get snow for Weston.

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    Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL

    Reading between the lines, the current meto thinking is that in spite of how good the charts look, it still won't be cold enough for snow in lowland southern locations. :(

    Certainly looks that !

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    Posted
  • Location: iow england
  • Location: iow england

    I hear your words, but Weston is difficult enough to get snow at the best of times, and we saw nothing in that cold spell in 2013.

     

    Got to be epic from now on in to get snow for Weston.

    I'm in the same situation although we had a good snowfall in 2013, I'm not that confident of anything significant in the short term for, were I live (iow)

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    Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

    I'm staying out of this "cold enough for snow" debate for now, as I want to see what Monday's and Tuesday's 12z runs come up with but overall I am sensing a cold February upcoming. In fact, from Wednesday onwards it might be a long haul back to milder weather, yes, usual caveats apply for coastal residents etc. as to how cold and snowy blah blah blach but one is getting a little excited again, however I remain hushed for now.  :D

    Edited by gottolovethisweather
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    Posted
  • Location: Upton, Northampton.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Upton, Northampton.

    Still unsure about the upcoming cold spell to be honest. I think therw is no doubt that it will happen, it may still be 3-4 days away but there is agreement from all the main models that it's going to happen.

    My main worry is that there will be a lot of mild sectors thrown into the mix. Wednesday night into Thursday looks like a good window of opportunity with -7 850's sweeping across the UK. After that though, looks a bit messy with a chance of mild sectors thrown in for good measure! We shall see how it pans out.

    Could also quite easily swing the other way and we could end up being on the right side of marginal and see some snow!

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    Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!

    Don't worry. Get excited all you want but by late Weds early Thursday your comfort blanket wil be taken from under you again. Bye bye snow! ... I'm on the look out for spring now :-D

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    Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,

    Ian f has tweeted, seemed intresting!! Also the Beeb forecast at the end said stay up to date as it could get intresting by the end of the week!! Not saying for us but nether the less some intresting weather coming up

    Fromey

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    Posted
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon

    Ian f has tweeted, seemed intresting!! Also the Beeb forecast at the end said stay up to date as it could get intresting by the end of the week!! Not saying for us but nether the less some intresting weather coming up

    Fromey

     

    Sorry fromey but I shall not be getting interested in this 'cold' spell until +24hrs as we had similar 'interesting' weather coming last time. and in a northerly we just don't see much in west country sheltered by wales, cornwall and Dartmoor fairs better though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

    ... I'm on the look out for spring now :-D

     

    Good luck with that one.  :whistling:

    Sorry fromey but I shall not be getting interested in this 'cold' spell until +24hrs as we had similar 'interesting' weather coming last time. and in a northerly we just don't see much in west country sheltered by wales, cornwall and Dartmoor fairs better though.

     

    That's interesting.  :D

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    Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,

    Sorry fromey but I shall not be getting interested in this 'cold' spell until +24hrs as we had similar 'interesting' weather coming last time. and in a northerly we just don't see much in west country sheltered by wales, cornwall and Dartmoor fairs better though.

    hi mate, im not getting at all intrested until 0hr and its falling out of the sky!!! i have a feeling that the wish bone affect may come into play and we will get zilch apart from some frost!!! been biten to many times!!!

    fromey

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    For what it's worth which isn't much the GFS forecast snowfall until Friday.

     

    Yep, clearly showing elevation only with that chart, to marginal for my liking, and when it's marginal it will always swing in favour of rain rather that snow.

     

    As I said, it has to be epic cold to get snow around here, and I don't see anything epic about this upcoming cold spell.

     

    I'm not being on a downer, just being realistic :unknw:

    Edited by SteveB
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    Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL

    Good realistic posts gents.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Had a couple days break from here (mainly due to mod thread) in order to keep sane, couple tweets from Ian are interesting!

    @fergieweather: W COUNTRY Summary of latest f'cast thoughts: WEDS PM-FRI AM: Cold, windy. Through this period, any snow falling to all levels away frm coast

    @fergieweather: W COUNTRY CONT'D... We expect this second (next weekend on) phase to be colder than the first (Weds-Thurs) episode, as flow veers to north.

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    Posted
  • Location: Blandford, Dorset 102m\334ft ASL
  • Location: Blandford, Dorset 102m\334ft ASL

    Far too much negativity in here, anyone would think there was a bartlet round the corner!

    I know many feel burnt from the last cold spell but thats only because expectations were too high for what was being forcast.

    Im not saying everyone will see 12 inches of snow but synoptics are much better this time. 1, we have cross model agreement. 2, we have an unstable airmass. 3, due to popular belief 850's aren't as important as last week and most importantly the pro's were never on board last week, this time round there all beating the cold drum.

    Anything has got to be better than last year so lets look forward to the upcoming spell of seasonal weather :-)

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    Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,

    Far too much negativity in here, anyone would think there was a bartlet round the corner!

    I know many feel burnt from the last cold spell but thats only because expectations were too high for what was being forcast.

    Im not saying everyone will see 12 inches of snow but synoptics are much better this time. 1, we have cross model agreement. 2, we have an unstable airmass. 3, due to popular belief 850's aren't as important as last week and most importantly the pro's were never on board last week, this time round there all beating the cold drum.

    Anything has got to be better than last year so lets look forward to the upcoming spell of seasonal weather :-)

     

    hi

    the problem with a northerly source is that northern, east and west coast and slighlty further in land tend to do better (wish bone effect) as of yet we have to wait and see wether there are any troughs embbeded in the flow(i am hoping!!)

    yes you are right things are better than last year, but i will wait and see what falls from the sky!

     

    cheers

     

    fromey

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    Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire

    I think given the set up you wouldn't consider us as the most likely to see snow, but given experience before troughs and showery flows can set up so wouldn't rule us out.. We are in the lottery, but can we get a winning ticket or at least three numbers.. going to enjoy the coming period if we get the white stuff, a added bonus. :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Blandford, Dorset 102m\334ft ASL
  • Location: Blandford, Dorset 102m\334ft ASL

    Far too much negativity in here, anyone would think there was a bartlet round the corner!

    I know many feel burnt from the last cold spell but thats only because expectations were too high for what was being forcast.

    Im not saying everyone will see 12 inches of snow but synoptics are much better this time. 1, we have cross model agreement. 2, we have an unstable airmass. 3, due to popular belief 850's aren't as important as last week and most importantly the pro's were never on board last week, this time round there all beating the cold drum.

    Anything has got to be better than last year so lets look forward to the upcoming spell of seasonal weather :-)

     

    hi

    the problem with a northerly source is that northern, east and west coast and slighlty further in land tend to do better (wish bone effect) as of yet we have to wait and see wether there are any troughs embbeded in the flow(i am hoping!!)

    yes you are right things are better than last year, but i will wait and see what falls from the sky!

     

    cheers

     

    fromey

    Hi Fromey,

    Yes I agree, more often than not we don't fair too well from a northerly but due to the unstable airmass troughs and fronts are a good possibility, these are already starting to appear although still at unreliable time frames. I know most want accumulations but I'm just looking forward to seeing some snow falling and I'm sure most of us will.

    Wednesday/Thursday is when it all starts, the Met Office have been spot on this season and even they are confident we will see something.

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    Posted
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon

    Far too much negativity in here, anyone would think there was a bartlet round the corner!

    I know many feel burnt from the last cold spell but thats only because expectations were too high for what was being forcast.

    Im not saying everyone will see 12 inches of snow but synoptics are much better this time. 1, we have cross model agreement. 2, we have an unstable airmass. 3, due to popular belief 850's aren't as important as last week and most importantly the pro's were never on board last week, this time round there all beating the cold drum.

    Anything has got to be better than last year so lets look forward to the upcoming spell of seasonal weather :-)

     

    I have yet to see a decent northerly dump inches of the white stuff in this part of the world. Even when there are embedded troughs within the flow they get destroyed by the welch mountains with only a few light flurry's if your lucky making it across the river severn. :nonono:

     

    I think we will have a chilly week with maybe an odd flurry followed by poorly orientated slider that delivers rain as the Atlantic comes back through.. that's what often happens. :wallbash:

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    Posted
  • Location: Split between Wells and Bridgwater
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Split between Wells and Bridgwater

    I'm watching with interest, Ian has been tweeting interesting thoughts and it's unlike him to ramp unfoundedy. I won't start jumping around excitedly just yet but hopefully we may be in luck by the end of the week - more so than any other time this winter so far, anyway.

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