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South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion - 1300z 12/1/15 ------>


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Posted
  • Location: Upton, Northampton.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Upton, Northampton.

    6.7c here tonight a 10 degree increase almost from last night. Crazy

    Feels really mild tonight compared to last night! And in reality, 6.7c is far from mild haha.

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    I have a plan......   All this marginal/north of the M4 malarkey is too boring to tolerate any longer, we've got to do something. Considering just how much rain we get down here, we could have the m

    Agreed. Trough circa 3am may extend snow showers across even to S of London (hence UKMO warning amended). Meanwhile, latest UKV and MOGREPS signal for snow remains particularly strong for Exmoor and M

    What a beauty!   By far the best chart of the Winter, very much deserving of an OMG for this regional.      You couldn't make it up, just remember as a NWP model chart at t+84 hours, it is jus

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    Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire

    It got up to 8.6c at some stage overnight before the cold front reintroduced the colder air, back down to 1.1c this morning with clear starry skies and a piddly 1.5mm in my gauge.

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    Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL

    Bit of a winter is over post by Steve Murr in the MAD MOD thread, so its not looking too good for us with regards to 6 feet of snow, its been an average winter so far although its had its moments which haven't quite come off. The OPI thing really didn't come off which is a shame as well.

    Find it quite interesting over the years that new developing areas of interest/investigation into what affects our winter have taken place. I remember back a couple of years where stratospheric warming held people's interest. Last year it was OPI. It is such an interesting area that constant learning & knowledge are available for all.

    What I appreciate most are the likes of Steve, Chio, Recretos and Tamara (emerging star) that take us all forward with their knowledge. Steve has suggested the towel is ready to be thrown, no surprise, but it does make wonder what it that the MetO have because their early winter forecasts have been so well aligned. I know a £90M computer system does help!

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    If SM suggests to throw in the towel, I suggest we all dig out our crampons and ice picks. lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    Hmmm wendnesday Thursday looking interesting and I'll be in blinking Holland! Typical.

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    Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire

    7.9c currently, with clear skies. 14mph NW. Overnight low of -0.5c once the rain cleared (0.7mm).

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

    Sunny, 6C. With light winds at the moment it doesn't feel too bad at all, certainly not the cold feel the forecasts were suggesting.

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    Posted
  • Location: Upton, Northampton.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Upton, Northampton.

    7.9c currently, with clear skies. 14mph NW. Overnight low of -0.5c once the rain cleared (0.7mm).

    It's 8c out there?! It feels bloody bitter out there. Feels more like 3-4c.

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    10.3°C was the high here. Currently 6.6°C and clear.

    That high was just after midnight. Daylight hours was 7.9°C :)

    Edited by Mapantz
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    Posted
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts
  • Weather Preferences: hot summers; frigid winters; golden fall; bright spring
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts

    The MAD thread is starting to ramp big time,but in this instance there may be some substance to the dreams with general model agreement. The thing I like about northeries that last for several days in an unstable airmass is the possibilities of troughs developing almost anywhere which can really deliver even down to the southwest....let's dream

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset

    So the models are painting a very interesting picture for later next week onwards, no doubt it's going to get cold, just how cold and what if any snow chances there will be is still to be decided, it's going to be fascinating to see how it plays out.

    I could have sworn some members in here were writing off the rest of winter just recently too! ;)

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    Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,

    Well I hope there will some troughs in the flow otherwise it will be a none event down here.!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire

    Well I hope there will some troughs in the flow otherwise it will be a none event down here.!!

    There is hope for that scenario the ECM hinted that, think that is our best chance for snowfall down here.

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    Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire

    @fergieweather

    W COUNTRY UPDATE The windy weather will set-in thro Weds & by Thurs, colder air will have flooded S. Feeling v cold then with wind chill...

    W COUNTRY CONT'D... w sunny spells & wintry showers rest of Thurs. In areas 200-400m across S England (e.g. SW Moors), these likely as snow.

    Edited by Mark N
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    Posted
  • Location: Upton, Northampton.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Upton, Northampton.

    @fergieweather

    W COUNTRY UPDATE The windy weather will set-in thro Weds & by Thurs, colder air will have flooded S. Feeling v cold then with wind chill...

    W COUNTRY CONT'D... w sunny spells & wintry showers rest of Thurs. In areas 200-400m across S England (e.g. SW Moors), these likely as snow.

    Good old Fergie, gotta love him. I might sound like a bit of a fanboy here but ain't it awesome that a Weather presenter from BBC local news actually visits this forum on a regular basis and shows an interest in what we ask him. It's not often you see that.

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset

    There is hope for that scenario the ECM hinted that, think that is our best chance for snowfall down here.

    That would be our best chance yeah but showers could also hit the region if there's a westerly element to the northerly flow, that's what gave snow here in March '06 and the Dec '10 snowfall was showers that banded together to form a streamer all the way from the west coast of wales.

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    Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL

    Good old Fergie, gotta love him. I might sound like a bit of a fanboy here but ain't it awesome that a Weather presenter from BBC local news actually visits this forum on a regular basis and shows an interest in what we ask him. It's not often you see that.

    To True, Also mentioned that exact same thing a couple of times myself. Thanks to the net it allows us to see some of the tv folk are indeed on our level and full Credit for IF mixing with us. Must be very frustrating fot him at times though i could imagine, with the High Hopers, pretend experts, rose tinted brigade, critical crettins, dummy dumpers, when the charts don't go their way. ( will include myself long time ago in one or two of those as well - high hopes , rose tinted for me!!) . Thankfully though hardly any from SW thread mostly on the model thread!!!

    Anyway , Ian F if you read this , thanks for taking the time to mix with mere mortals/ porpers!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL

    I would think that any weather professional that presents information from their sources has to be very careful on what they say, and not to provide information beyond what's widely available. I can imagine Ian has already thought "why bother, some of these folks are jerks". However in the true spirit of the word 'enthusiast' he puts that behind him and remains professional, for the sake of the others on here. I trust he doesn't let the 'jerks' get the better of him/us.

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    Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness

    @fergieweather

    W COUNTRY UPDATE The windy weather will set-in thro Weds & by Thurs, colder air will have flooded S. Feeling v cold then with wind chill...

    W COUNTRY CONT'D... w sunny spells & wintry showers rest of Thurs. In areas 200-400m across S England (e.g. SW Moors), these likely as snow.

    Reading between the lines, the current meto thinking is that in spite of how good the charts look, it still won't be cold enough for snow in lowland southern locations. :(

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    Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire

    Reading between the lines, the current meto thinking is that in spite of how good the charts look, it still won't be cold enough for snow in lowland southern locations. :(

    Thats just Thursday, after that cold uppers well in place.. just have to wait on disturbances and troughs buddy..

    Edited by Mark N
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    Posted
  • Location: Upton, Northampton.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Upton, Northampton.

    Reading between the lines, the current meto thinking is that in spite of how good the charts look, it still won't be cold enough for snow in lowland southern locations. :(

    Things never change do they :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    This morning partly cloudy with temp 6C and a light SW.

     

    Some reflections on the coming week. Despite the frenzy in the MOD thread yesterday nothing is written in stone as can be seen by this mornings GFS. This of course shouldn't be taken in isolation but it gives the idea, Getting colder by the end of the week but no sustained northerlies, (not much good here anyway) and rather wet at times. Just a couple of charts to give the general idea.

    Charts courtesy weatherbell.

     

    The ECM has a rather different take with a much more snow orientated scenario with snow perhaps down as far as Devon, Somerset, Dorset  and most of Wales by Friday.

    post-12275-0-73857000-1422169564_thumb.p

    post-12275-0-97390500-1422169572_thumb.p

    Edited by knocker
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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    Morning! Currently 1.8C and cloudy. I'm off fishing at Chesil beach for the day- hoping sun makes an appearance. :)

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