Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion - 1300z 12/1/15 ------>


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon

    Just read this on Ian's twitter:

     

    W COUNTRY Tues PM/Night may yield 'thundersnow' in some western fringes, as cumulonimbus clouds bring combination of lightning, hail & snow.

     

    Interesting to say the least! I've never witnessed thundersnow!

     

    No I have never seen that either it would be interesting to see. Lets get some showers first though eh :hi:

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 2k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    I have a plan......   All this marginal/north of the M4 malarkey is too boring to tolerate any longer, we've got to do something. Considering just how much rain we get down here, we could have the m

    Agreed. Trough circa 3am may extend snow showers across even to S of London (hence UKMO warning amended). Meanwhile, latest UKV and MOGREPS signal for snow remains particularly strong for Exmoor and M

    What a beauty!   By far the best chart of the Winter, very much deserving of an OMG for this regional.      You couldn't make it up, just remember as a NWP model chart at t+84 hours, it is jus

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK

    hmm....now let's see.........hi resolution models or a very vague, tailored for the general public, short TV forecast............I think I know which I'd take more interest in!  :whistling:

    Somewhat contradictory!

    The BBC graphics (0-48hr) are the Euro4 output but crucially, it's the output as modified by the Chief Forecaster at Ops Centre... NOT the raw E4 seen on websites. So ironically, in the TV version, you are seeing both high-res AND after forecaster intervention. Still, we can't please everyone, I guess...!!

    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK

    Just read this on Ian's twitter:

     

    W COUNTRY Tues PM/Night may yield 'thundersnow' in some western fringes, as cumulonimbus clouds bring combination of lightning, hail & snow.

     

    Interesting to say the least! I've never witnessed thundersnow!

    Cb tops to ca. -45C in profiles. Could be lively on coastal/adjacent fringes where very efficiently fuelled by 8C SST's.

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon

    Somewhat contradictory!

    The BBC graphics (0-48hr) are the Euro4 output but crucially, it's the output as modified by the Chief Forecaster at Ops Centre... NOT the raw E4 seen on websites. So ironically, in the TV version, you are seeing both high-res AND after forecaster intervention. Still, we can't please everyone, I guess...!!

     

    So has the emphasis been shifted northwards ian or are we reading forecasts too literally?

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Split between Wells and Bridgwater
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Split between Wells and Bridgwater

    I've witnessed thundersnow - it's fantastic! Think it was in a marginal set up like this one too.. Must have been about 17 years ago or more, as I was still at school

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

    Cb tops to ca. -45C in profiles. Could be lively on coastal/adjacent fringes where very efficiently fuelled by 8C SST's.

    anything for the midlands fergie?
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat Waves, Tornadoes.
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol

    Just read this on Ian's twitter:

     

    W COUNTRY Tues PM/Night may yield 'thundersnow' in some western fringes, as cumulonimbus clouds bring combination of lightning, hail & snow.

     

    Interesting to say the least! I've never witnessed thundersnow!

    Holy moly. One weather phenomenon that I have yet to witness too! Fingers crossed!

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

    A real soaker today with a period of persistent heavy/very heavy rain between 3-5pm and a squall line of sorts about half an hour ago - 19mm in total. Now pretty windy again. Would be good for the wind to dry the ground out a bit before any snow arrives.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Emersons Green, Bristol
  • Location: Emersons Green, Bristol

    RAW Euro 18z :)

     

    15011406_1218.gif

     

    I'd settle for that  :D

    Even far SW of Cornwall gets in on the action (if that verifies!).

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Portishead
  • Location: Portishead

    Well, I'm right in the firing line, poking out here into the channel - expecting sleet/wet snow towards 6am but would love thunder mixed in. Either way, I might be up pretty late tomorrow night/wed AM!

    I always believe that if you get 850's below -5oC and the HGT 500-1000 under 528 and you have a real chance...great fun, and welcome after last winters dullfest!

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: North Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms / Sunshine / Snow
  • Location: North Bristol

    Holy moly. One weather phenomenon that I have yet to witness too! Fingers crossed!

     

    I have only experienced it once here. Was probably about 12 years ago roughly...was bizarre I was out in the snow with friends and we were bemused to what these weird muffled explosions were...until realising it was thundersnow!

     

    Surreal.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK

    So has the emphasis been shifted northwards ian or are we reading forecasts too literally?

    Risk of too literally. We can only broad-brush the main risk areas (notably Exmoor, Mendips/Mendips Plateau, Broadfield Down, Cotswolds/FoD).

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire

    Risk of too literally. We can only broad-brush the main risk areas (notably Exmoor, Mendips/Mendips Plateau, Broadfield Down, Cotswolds/FoD).

    Out of your Regional weather Ian, but is the ongoing output at UKMET showing a good signal for showers to get as far as Chilterns? I know the Euro4 showing this. 

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

    Somewhat contradictory!

    The BBC graphics (0-48hr) are the Euro4 output but crucially, it's the output as modified by the Chief Forecaster at Ops Centre... NOT the raw E4 seen on websites. So ironically, in the TV version, you are seeing both high-res AND after forecaster intervention. Still, we can't please everyone, I guess...!!

    not contradictory IMO....I've found the BBC weather graphics inaccurate on numerous occasions, and find some of the hi-res models (especially NW's own NMM 4k model) more accurate....perhaps the BBC should employ better computer graphic designers?  :wink:

     

    just to add, I was referring more to the knee jerk reactions of a few members due to one short forecast

    Edited by ajpoolshark
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire

    Absoutely Tonking it down here, torrential rain with some flash flooding. Strong gusty winds too. Battering against my bedroom window. Wish we had that his heavier precip in 24hrs time ;)

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Yate, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Yate, South Gloucestershire

    Just looking at 850's and they all seem to be from around -7 around the whole of the South West and Central England at +39 hours!

     

    15011409_1218.gif

     

    Dew Points from 3c to -2c across the area's.

     

    15011409_1218.gif

     

    Snow accumulated at +39.

     

    15011409_1218.gif

     

    Off to bed, have work in the morning, look forward to another day of model watching tomorrow though! :) Night all!

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL

    Rain has cleared south and east with temps on the way down. 9°C, 90%, Dew P 8°C

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: storms - of the severe kind
  • Location: Torrington, Devon

    Just read this on Ian's twitter:

     

    W COUNTRY Tues PM/Night may yield 'thundersnow' in some western fringes, as cumulonimbus clouds bring combination of lightning, hail & snow.

     

    Interesting to say the least! I've never witnessed thundersnow!

    I have, the Thundersnow event of 2004

    Never forget it. Ahead of the squall, the temp was +6c

    The squall arrived as rain & high gusts, then it turned to hail, and then to heavy snow, with lightning & thunder

    Good covering of snow on the ground before it was done.

    After the squall, the temperature had dropped to 0c

    Read more, here

    https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75764-january-2004-thundersnow/

    Edited by stevofunnelcl
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    I tell thee! These rainfall totals are quietly creeping up for some areas- more to come this week as well.. Flood warnings are appearing..

    One to watch!

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: storms - of the severe kind
  • Location: Torrington, Devon

    just seen latest met o forecast for south-west, looks fairly tasty for the coming night

     

    hail, sleet & snow showers with the risk of lightning !!

    Also mentions snow accumulations to low levels away from windward coasts

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

    Latest EURO4, leaving aside minoscale differences, broadly the same again;

    post-12721-0-40719200-1421125989_thumb.jpost-12721-0-74583700-1421125999_thumb.j

    Leading to a wintry surprise for a lucky few of us by dawn tomorrow;

    post-12721-0-78108300-1421126035_thumb.j

    I suspect our hills of Somerset, Wiltshire & Gloucestershire could do very well if this verified.

    Not going last long though, so make the most of anything you may get. By he afternoon and into the evening, milder, stormier weather encroaches;

    post-12721-0-52932800-1421126173_thumb.j

    Batten down them hatches.

    post-12721-0-07534900-1421126320_thumb.jpost-12721-0-09600700-1421126329_thumb.j

    Edited by AWD
    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    Fingers crossed for us lot tonight :) looking forward to it. Very unusual to be getting a snow risk from a Westerly but those warmer seas will give our showers plenty of energy!

    Also liking the slider on GFS 00z. To far out to take to seriously but a trend to this kind of pattern is apparent.

    post-4266-0-85686600-1421131688_thumb.jp

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...