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South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion - 1300z 12/1/15 ------>


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Just read this on Ian's twitter:

 

W COUNTRY Tues PM/Night may yield 'thundersnow' in some western fringes, as cumulonimbus clouds bring combination of lightning, hail & snow.

 

Interesting to say the least! I've never witnessed thundersnow!

 

No I have never seen that either it would be interesting to see. Lets get some showers first though eh :hi:

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What a beauty!   By far the best chart of the Winter, very much deserving of an OMG for this regional.      You couldn't make it up, just remember as a NWP model chart at t+84 hours, it is jus

Posted Images

hmm....now let's see.........hi resolution models or a very vague, tailored for the general public, short TV forecast............I think I know which I'd take more interest in!  :whistling:

Somewhat contradictory!

The BBC graphics (0-48hr) are the Euro4 output but crucially, it's the output as modified by the Chief Forecaster at Ops Centre... NOT the raw E4 seen on websites. So ironically, in the TV version, you are seeing both high-res AND after forecaster intervention. Still, we can't please everyone, I guess...!!

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Just read this on Ian's twitter:

 

W COUNTRY Tues PM/Night may yield 'thundersnow' in some western fringes, as cumulonimbus clouds bring combination of lightning, hail & snow.

 

Interesting to say the least! I've never witnessed thundersnow!

Cb tops to ca. -45C in profiles. Could be lively on coastal/adjacent fringes where very efficiently fuelled by 8C SST's.

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Somewhat contradictory!

The BBC graphics (0-48hr) are the Euro4 output but crucially, it's the output as modified by the Chief Forecaster at Ops Centre... NOT the raw E4 seen on websites. So ironically, in the TV version, you are seeing both high-res AND after forecaster intervention. Still, we can't please everyone, I guess...!!

 

So has the emphasis been shifted northwards ian or are we reading forecasts too literally?

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I've witnessed thundersnow - it's fantastic! Think it was in a marginal set up like this one too.. Must have been about 17 years ago or more, as I was still at school

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Just read this on Ian's twitter:

 

W COUNTRY Tues PM/Night may yield 'thundersnow' in some western fringes, as cumulonimbus clouds bring combination of lightning, hail & snow.

 

Interesting to say the least! I've never witnessed thundersnow!

Holy moly. One weather phenomenon that I have yet to witness too! Fingers crossed!

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A real soaker today with a period of persistent heavy/very heavy rain between 3-5pm and a squall line of sorts about half an hour ago - 19mm in total. Now pretty windy again. Would be good for the wind to dry the ground out a bit before any snow arrives.

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Well, I'm right in the firing line, poking out here into the channel - expecting sleet/wet snow towards 6am but would love thunder mixed in. Either way, I might be up pretty late tomorrow night/wed AM!

I always believe that if you get 850's below -5oC and the HGT 500-1000 under 528 and you have a real chance...great fun, and welcome after last winters dullfest!

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Holy moly. One weather phenomenon that I have yet to witness too! Fingers crossed!

 

I have only experienced it once here. Was probably about 12 years ago roughly...was bizarre I was out in the snow with friends and we were bemused to what these weird muffled explosions were...until realising it was thundersnow!

 

Surreal.

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So has the emphasis been shifted northwards ian or are we reading forecasts too literally?

Risk of too literally. We can only broad-brush the main risk areas (notably Exmoor, Mendips/Mendips Plateau, Broadfield Down, Cotswolds/FoD).

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Risk of too literally. We can only broad-brush the main risk areas (notably Exmoor, Mendips/Mendips Plateau, Broadfield Down, Cotswolds/FoD).

Out of your Regional weather Ian, but is the ongoing output at UKMET showing a good signal for showers to get as far as Chilterns? I know the Euro4 showing this. 

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Somewhat contradictory!

The BBC graphics (0-48hr) are the Euro4 output but crucially, it's the output as modified by the Chief Forecaster at Ops Centre... NOT the raw E4 seen on websites. So ironically, in the TV version, you are seeing both high-res AND after forecaster intervention. Still, we can't please everyone, I guess...!!

not contradictory IMO....I've found the BBC weather graphics inaccurate on numerous occasions, and find some of the hi-res models (especially NW's own NMM 4k model) more accurate....perhaps the BBC should employ better computer graphic designers?  :wink:

 

just to add, I was referring more to the knee jerk reactions of a few members due to one short forecast

Edited by ajpoolshark
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Absoutely Tonking it down here, torrential rain with some flash flooding. Strong gusty winds too. Battering against my bedroom window. Wish we had that his heavier precip in 24hrs time ;)

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Just looking at 850's and they all seem to be from around -7 around the whole of the South West and Central England at +39 hours!

 

15011409_1218.gif

 

Dew Points from 3c to -2c across the area's.

 

15011409_1218.gif

 

Snow accumulated at +39.

 

15011409_1218.gif

 

Off to bed, have work in the morning, look forward to another day of model watching tomorrow though! :) Night all!

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Just read this on Ian's twitter:

 

W COUNTRY Tues PM/Night may yield 'thundersnow' in some western fringes, as cumulonimbus clouds bring combination of lightning, hail & snow.

 

Interesting to say the least! I've never witnessed thundersnow!

I have, the Thundersnow event of 2004

Never forget it. Ahead of the squall, the temp was +6c

The squall arrived as rain & high gusts, then it turned to hail, and then to heavy snow, with lightning & thunder

Good covering of snow on the ground before it was done.

After the squall, the temperature had dropped to 0c

Read more, here

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75764-january-2004-thundersnow/

Edited by stevofunnelcl
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I tell thee! These rainfall totals are quietly creeping up for some areas- more to come this week as well.. Flood warnings are appearing..

One to watch!

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Latest EURO4, leaving aside minoscale differences, broadly the same again;

post-12721-0-40719200-1421125989_thumb.jpost-12721-0-74583700-1421125999_thumb.j

Leading to a wintry surprise for a lucky few of us by dawn tomorrow;

post-12721-0-78108300-1421126035_thumb.j

I suspect our hills of Somerset, Wiltshire & Gloucestershire could do very well if this verified.

Not going last long though, so make the most of anything you may get. By he afternoon and into the evening, milder, stormier weather encroaches;

post-12721-0-52932800-1421126173_thumb.j

Batten down them hatches.

post-12721-0-07534900-1421126320_thumb.jpost-12721-0-09600700-1421126329_thumb.j

Edited by AWD
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Fingers crossed for us lot tonight :) looking forward to it. Very unusual to be getting a snow risk from a Westerly but those warmer seas will give our showers plenty of energy!

Also liking the slider on GFS 00z. To far out to take to seriously but a trend to this kind of pattern is apparent.

post-4266-0-85686600-1421131688_thumb.jp

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