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South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion - 1300z 12/1/15 ------>


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I have a plan......   All this marginal/north of the M4 malarkey is too boring to tolerate any longer, we've got to do something. Considering just how much rain we get down here, we could have the m

Agreed. Trough circa 3am may extend snow showers across even to S of London (hence UKMO warning amended). Meanwhile, latest UKV and MOGREPS signal for snow remains particularly strong for Exmoor and M

What a beauty!   By far the best chart of the Winter, very much deserving of an OMG for this regional.      You couldn't make it up, just remember as a NWP model chart at t+84 hours, it is jus

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Brrr, Tis a bit chilly out there, Thanks to a Northerly airflow of sorts, now bring on the snow. Possibly North Cornwall and North Devon could see the odd flurry this afternoon and into the evening judging by the radar, if existing parameters allow for such a thing. Current conditions 2.6c AT, 1.7c DP sounds familiar but I'm imagining these figures will fall rather than climb now unlike yesterday.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Morning one and all. Haven't had a chance to look through models and posts on here but would someone mind updating me on whether we will see snow this week or is it still anyone's guess?

Karl, i popped in there earlier - cant make heado or tail of it. It looks too marginal i think for our neck of the woods.

It's not a classic slider/battleground scenario to me.

I think we still need near ice days for it to be really classic, and it looks like we will be on the wrong side of any trough, but, of course, all this is subject to change, possibly.

Maybe a better chance towards early Feb? Just speculating.

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What a depressing BBC 1 forecast at 13:15.;Fairly dry week with odd bits of sleet and snow tues,wed but nothing of any interest or troublesome. What happened to the sliders which were going to produce good falls of snow to some parts?

Edited by BristolBaggie
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Same as everytime picture perfect models get shown.We get the cold but no precipitation to go with it! Or if we do it ends up the type that leaves u a mere dusting that will be gone in an hour.Fab spell for the north west no doubt but for here same old.Just seems like any english typical winter tbh! Would loVe to be proven otherwise mind!

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I think it is starting to look more positive for this cold spell today even for us down south west, not massive snow events but certainly the possibility of a dusting here and there?  :)

 

Temperature seems to have peeked at 2.6c so I expect it to plummet in a couple of hours.

Edited by Nights King
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I think it is starting to look more positive for this cold spell today even for us down south west, not massive snow events but certainly the possibility of a dusting here and there?  :)

What fires up your hopes, it's looking wet down here in our area Tues thru weds before the wind backs to the east briefly.

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I'm with you NK. I think we may be pleasantly surprised and I think we may be in for a longer cold spell than first thought.

Just been doing some gardening- putting a border around our lawn. The lawn is like a bog.. Lin looking forward to some dry days like today to help dry it out! Anyone got any tips to making my lawn healthy?! I don't know where to start! It's a new lawn and the developers just chucked the turf down and it hasn't really bedded in in the 7 months we've been here

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I think it is starting to look more positive for this cold spell today even for us down south west, not massive snow events but certainly the possibility of a dusting here and there?  :)

 

Temperature seems to have peeked at 2.6c so I expect it to plummet in a couple of hours.

Well I don't know about snow prospects for this part of the county but it's certainly interesting in that the models are pushing the pattern further west with each run, certainly the return of the Atlantic appears to be hitting the buffers where as a few days ago the models were showing sw winds sweeping right across the UK later this coming week.

Yes the models could go back to showing that again but at the moment they are trending the other way and it'll be fascinating to watch it unfold, longer the cold spell goes on the better chance areas will have to see some of the white stuff.

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This is the view from our house. One of the main reasons I love living here is this view to the mendips - I can now see if it's snowed overnight! And I couldn't before.

Really don't know why it has turned on its side tho?!

post-9503-0-70135000-1421593190_thumb.jp

Edited by khodds
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I'm with you NK. I think we may be pleasantly surprised and I think we may be in for a longer cold spell than first thought.

Just been doing some gardening- putting a border around our lawn. The lawn is like a bog.. Lin looking forward to some dry days like today to help dry it out! Anyone got any tips to making my lawn healthy?! I don't know where to start! It's a new lawn and the developers just chucked the turf down and it hasn't really bedded in in the 7 months we've been here

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news but there really aren't any short cuts to getting a decent lawn. You can spike it all over and brush in some sand, keep your fingers crossed and hope that it works. In reality, more often than not, you'll end up with that regime for a few years and still end up with a patchy lawn. Or, you can bite the bullet, either lift the turf or dig it in, dig in copious amounts of sharp sand and/or grit depending on how wet it is, and re-turf it when the weather warms up. 

 

IMO it's more trouble than it's worth to go down the spiking/sanding route, it's rarely successful. Altogether better to start again, getting the drainage sorted. Long term, it gives you far less work and will leave with you with a lawn which isn't prone to water logging in the soggy SW winters.

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Sorry to be the bearer of bad news but there really aren't any short cuts to getting a decent lawn. You can spike it all over and brush in some sand, keep your fingers crossed and hope that it works. In reality, more often than not, you'll end up with that regime for a few years and still end up with a patchy lawn. Or, you can bite the bullet, either lift the turf or dig it in, dig in copious amounts of sharp sand and/or grit depending on how wet it is, and re-turf it when the weather warms up. 

 

IMO it's more trouble than it's worth to go down the spiking/sanding route, it's rarely successful. Altogether better to start again, getting the drainage sorted. Long term, it gives you far less work and will leave with you with a lawn which isn't prone to water logging in the soggy SW winters.

Thanks Jethro. I'll spike it all over and see how we go.. The underlying soil is clay or so it seems to me.. The rubbish they back filled the garden with. I'm not alone, it's a new estate and some people are having theirs relaid. Think it needs a good fertiliser too AND the dog has made it patchy with his weeing :(

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Thanks Jethro. I'll spike it all over and see how we go.. The underlying soil is clay or so it seems to me.. The rubbish they back filled the garden with. I'm not alone, it's a new estate and some people are having theirs relaid. Think it needs a good fertiliser too AND the dog has made it patchy with his weeing :(

The clay's the biggest problem, that and the compaction from the building works. If you spike it, you're setting yourself up for loads of work for many years to come. 

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Nice developments on the radar in the last hour due NW of Birmingham and into Eastern parts of Wales, why do I mention this? Because it is all trundling slowly Southwards, slightly on NNW to ESE track and may effect parts of Somerset and Wiltshire by early evening. Elsewhere, there is the odd wintry shower about as previously mentioned which make effect other North facing coastal areas and hills within this regional.  

 

AT 2.4c, DP 0.8c so better than during daylight hours then any other time recently. I remain hopeful for a dusting locally should it make it down here, but will it be a marginal remains open to question. 60/40 in favour of precipitation being snow today is my prediction.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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The clay's the biggest problem, that and the compaction from the building works. If you spike it, you're setting yourself up for loads of work for many years to come.

Ok, I'll leave off the spiking, when's a good time to fertilise it?

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Nice developments on the radar in the last hour due NW of Birmingham and into Eastern parts of Wales, why do I mention this? Because it is all trundling slowly Southwards, slightly on NNW to ESE track and may effect parts of Somerset and Wiltshire by early evening. Elsewhere, there is the odd wintry shower about as previously mentioned which make effect other North facing coastal areas and hills within this regional.  

 

AT 2.4c, DP 0.8c so better than during daylight hours then any other time recently. I remain hopeful for a dusting locally should it make it down here, but will it be a marginal remains open to question. 60/40 in favour of precipitation being snow today is my prediction.

Actually surprised, never know we all may get a dusting!
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yes watching radar very carefully ,looks like heading in our direction but quite often these little features can fizzle out ,if it does make it to somerset it could be snow ,so heres hoping .temp here now 2 c  :cold:

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I'll leave it at never know too. I'm hoping it intensifies as it heads South and reaches us a few hours after sunset, which it should do.

Wouldn't it be amazing to get a few inches out of intensified showers. Everyone at work will be hoping for it anyway as we have a big meeting tomorrow which they're all crapping themselves over haha!

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ENE wind here currently,was that forecast?

 

It's on the back edge of the front and low from overnight so not a surprise. It should slowly back to the North.

 

Actually surprised, never know we all may get a dusting!

I think those showers will die out before reaching this region.

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