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A.J

South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion - 1300z 12/1/15 ------>

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BBC News 24 forecast just now showed snow for tom eve to the north of our region into the south midlands.

No snow graphic for down here.

I think it was an uptodate forecast as well.

How far south did it stretch? Personally I think we're better off waiting because my prediction is a streamer setting up off the Bristol channel. Hopefully they get it wrong and all of us receive a foot of snow!

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hmm....now let's see.........hi resolution models or a very vague, tailored for the general public, short TV forecast............I think I know which I'd take more interest in!  :whistling:

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How far south did it stretch? Personally I think we're better off waiting because my prediction is a streamer setting up off the Bristol channel. Hopefully they get it wrong and all of us receive a foot of snow!

 

Will it snow in Bristol?

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Happy New Year all.

 

Are all the old gang back? :D

 

Has anyone mentioned M4 corridor yet?  :ninja:

 

Dancing Daisy, I did actually post this up as a status update earlier on.

 

"all snow from now on is forecast to fall in extraordinary amounts from the M4 southwards. Forecast courtesy of Carlsberg Special Brew, HIC!"

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I really wouldn't worry about following the BBC graphics around.

They are just a guide, the development of shower activity tomorrow night is too vague in confidence to pin down to any one detailed location with any degree of certainty.

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Will it snow in Bristol?

Oh yes! won't be able to open your door wednesday morning! might have to dive from the bedroom window haha - have to have a laugh. Being realistic though Bristol looked to have a decent chance based on the BBC forecast earlier.

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I really wouldn't worry about following the BBC graphics around.

They are just a guide, the development of shower activity tomorrow night is too vague in confidence to pin down to any one detailed location with any degree of certainty.

Hi AWD, would it be correct to say that North Somerset, Bristol, South Glos areas could be prone to heavier ppn due to showers coming up through the Bristol Channel and therefore not being swallowed up by the Welsh hills?

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Hi AWD, would it be correct to say that North Somerset, Bristol, South Glos areas could be prone to heavier ppn due to showers coming up through the Bristol Channel and therefore not being swallowed up by the Welsh hills?

That's the forecast direction of the upper 500hpa airflow, yes, so very much a possibility.

However, to pin down detail in any one location is too difficult in situations like these. I think snowfall will be very localised around the region. The possibilities are there for some areas to do very well, some areas to see a little, some areas to see just rain and some areas to stay dry altogether.

If you have elevation on your side and are exposed to a WNW wind then you're in with a good shout.

Personally I don't see any snowfall Bristol and surrounding urban areas may get settling well (if at all) due to saturated ground and high ground temps. Elevation, for me, is the key tomorrow.

Edited by AWD

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That's the forecast direction of the upper 500hpa airflow, yes, so very much a possibility.

However, to pin down detail in any one location is too difficult in situations like these. I think snowfall will be very localised around the region. The possibilities are there for some areas to do very well, some areas to see a little, some areas to see just rain and some areas to stay dry altogether.

If you have elevation on your side and are exposed to a WNW wind then you're in with a good shout.

Personally I don't see any snowfall Bristol and surrounding urban areas may get settling well (if at all) due to saturated ground and high ground temps. Elevation, for me, is the key tomorrow.

Thanks for the reply, I'm a pure novice so it's much appreciated.

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hmm....now let's see.........hi resolution models or a very vague, tailored for the general public, short TV forecast............I think I know which I'd take more interest in!  :whistling:

You do have a point  :friends:

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How far south did it stretch? Personally I think we're better off waiting because my prediction is a streamer setting up off the Bristol channel. Hopefully they get it wrong and all of us receive a foot of snow!

Snow for S Wales, but looked like up into the valleys....plus around gloucester northwards into the Midlands.

Let's hope it's wrong. I'm sure Ian will pop in with latest likely track later or in the morning.

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It always looked a marginal set up for me, as AWD say's head for high ground for settling snow, think the rest of us may see some wet snow trying it very best to look like proper snow, but failing  miserably.

 

If you don't live on high ground & you've got the chance to get out, I would head for the hills.

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I would also add that on a number of occasions in last few years the GFS precipitation predictions have been pretty accurate for t24 or less.

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Snow for S Wales, but looked like up into the valleys....plus around gloucester northwards into the Midlands.

Let's hope it's wrong. I'm sure Ian will pop in with latest likely track later or in the morning.

The valleys always get it here! Cardiff is just too near the coast which is annoying. I'm just going to wait and see, i don't bother getting my hopes up anymore especially after the past couple of years!

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36-574PUK.GIF?12-18

 

GFS(P) is still on our side lol!

Edited by Zephyr

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I've just gone to the pub to get battered. I was battered before I got there! The wind is driving that rain sideways- absolutely soaked! 11.5mm of it so far.

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36-574PUK.GIF?12-18

 

GFS(P) is still on our side lol!

 

Panic has been subdued for now..  :friends:  :yahoo:

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Panic has been subdued for now..  :friends:  :yahoo:

 

you never needed to panic it was always looking good your way, I'm not expecting anything more than a flurry but its better than nothing :)

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36-574PUK.GIF?12-18

 

GFS(P) is still on our side lol!

On the national forecast it looked like that heavier PPN coming up through the Bristol Channel is taking a more NE track and heading into the south midlands, rather than a more easterly track as previously forecast. Anyway, still time to change!

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Evening all  :hi:

 

So some of us might be lucky enough to finally see some snow!! Think it's been almost two years since we've had anything of note here!

 

Some talk of the possibility of some colder weather next week too... Hopefully it will come to fruition!  :)

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you never needed to panic it was always looking good your way, I'm not expecting anything more than a flurry but its better than nothing :)

 

True I don't have to worry about altitude although ppn needs to reach me and if it goes in a north east direction that is bad news for south of Bristol?

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Regardless of all the other exciting issues affecting our region in the next few days, it has actually been raining heavily here now for about 6 hours, lanes are nearly flooding and ground is saturated, not boding well for what is on its way!!!

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True I don't have to worry about altitude although ppn needs to reach me and if it goes in a north east direction that is bad news for south of Bristol?

 

Just read this on Ian's twitter:

 

W COUNTRY Tues PM/Night may yield 'thundersnow' in some western fringes, as cumulonimbus clouds bring combination of lightning, hail & snow.

 

Interesting to say the least! I've never witnessed thundersnow!

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On the national forecast it looked like that heavier PPN coming up through the Bristol Channel is taking a more NE track and heading into the south midlands, rather than a more easterly track as previously forecast. Anyway, still time to change!

Apparently one of the forecasts earlier on bbc news (not exactly sure when) they showed yesterday's extended forecast, that, coupled with the fact the Bbc graphics seem notoriously bad when modelling showers, I wouldn't worry too much at the moment!

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