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South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion - 1300z 12/1/15 ------>


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Looks like I messed some snow fall up Bristol airport way, precipitation died right down just as I got here! Parked cars up here with a little snow on them. Absolutely hammered it down back home with rain, little sleet in the really heavy bursts.

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I have a plan......   All this marginal/north of the M4 malarkey is too boring to tolerate any longer, we've got to do something. Considering just how much rain we get down here, we could have the m

Agreed. Trough circa 3am may extend snow showers across even to S of London (hence UKMO warning amended). Meanwhile, latest UKV and MOGREPS signal for snow remains particularly strong for Exmoor and M

What a beauty!   By far the best chart of the Winter, very much deserving of an OMG for this regional.      You couldn't make it up, just remember as a NWP model chart at t+84 hours, it is jus

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W COUNTRY Very uncertain prospects late Sat into Sun; ditto by Tues. Awkward f'cast re rain v snow, & wide spread of poss outcomes...for now

Latest from Ian! :)

Can see what Ian means. ECMWF Det shows a tease for more southern members as early as Saturday night;

post-12721-0-10216900-1421357088_thumb.jpost-12721-0-63903200-1421357098_thumb.j

post-12721-0-33448700-1421357106_thumb.jpost-12721-0-24158100-1421357114_thumb.j

post-12721-0-20952700-1421357122_thumb.jpost-12721-0-96479200-1421357129_thumb.j

Edited by AWD
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Ian's full quote

A mixed bag of EC clusters.... any pronouncements of a secure and swift return to 'mild' conditions need to be taken with pinch of salt. Meanwhile, nearer-term focus needs to be on the late Sat-Sun high WBPT plume curving atop the low running off down into Biscay. *Could* get interesting on N flank of this feature, but wide spread in PPN envelope (e.g. MOGREPS has this anywhere from N France to S Midlands!!)....

Hope it stops a few people from calling a swift return to mild weather for the time being, a very fluid situation

Fromey

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Ian's full quote

A mixed bag of EC clusters.... any pronouncements of a secure and swift return to 'mild' conditions need to be taken with pinch of salt. Meanwhile, nearer-term focus needs to be on the late Sat-Sun high WBPT plume curving atop the low running off down into Biscay. *Could* get interesting on N flank of this feature, but wide spread in PPN envelope (e.g. MOGREPS has this anywhere from N France to S Midlands!!)....

Hope it stops a few people from calling a swift return to mild weather for the time being, a very fluid situation

Fromey

Thanks fromey, goes to show how much uncertainty there is at the moment, I wouldn't right anything off at the moment

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Thanks fromey, goes to show how much uncertainty there is at the moment, I wouldn't right anything off at the moment

Anything is possible South of the M4!!!been here before!!

Fromey

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CHANNEL LOW! CHANNEL LOW!

CHANNEL LOW! CHANNEL LOW!

CHANNEL LOW! CHANNEL LOW!

CHANNEL LOW! CHANNEL LOW!

CHANNEL LOW! CHANNEL LOW!

 

PWITTY PLEAAAAAAAAAAASE!!! 

 

I misse that last one I was in ruddy Munich! December 20??? 10?

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CHANNEL LOW! CHANNEL LOW!

CHANNEL LOW! CHANNEL LOW!

CHANNEL LOW! CHANNEL LOW!

CHANNEL LOW! CHANNEL LOW!

CHANNEL LOW! CHANNEL LOW!

 

PWITTY PLEAAAAAAAAAAASE!!! 

 

I misse that last one I was in ruddy Munich! December 20??? 10?

 

I do believe its been cancelled now, so sorry. However, it could well be replaced by a SW England trough with stalled fronts aligned SE'wards from central Wales to Winchester. The depression's frontal boundaries lying as suggested, during next Tuesday into Wednesday looks to slowly fill, stall and is likely to produces 36 hours of intermittent snowfall.

 

Any takers? February 1978 twas an often quoted month which contained such a snow event and who knows, history might repeat itself.

 

*this is NOT a forecast*  :rofl: yet it is a hopecast which may become one. 

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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