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South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion - 1300z 12/1/15 ------>

A.J

By A.J
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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted (edited)

Very disappointing update from Ian in the Mod thread. You can argue the toss with most members but if the Met are saying no snow for South then I reckon we are out of luck.....again!

Still 6 weeks of winter left.

EDIT: I'm going to remain positive. Still time for upgrades

Edited by karlos1983
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MPG Enthusiast

MPG

Posted
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol
Posted

Very disappointing update from Ian in the Mod thread. You can argue the toss with most members but if the Met are saying no snow for South then I reckon we are out of luck.....again!

Still 6 weeks of winter left

Quite amusing that Ian F's Tweet from yesterday for the W Country regarding a 'strong signal for cold or very cold' has disappeared from his profile!

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

Quite amusing that Ian F's Tweet from yesterday for the W Country regarding a 'strong signal for cold or very cold' has disappeared from his profile!

Has it really, haha.

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MPG Enthusiast

MPG

Posted
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol
Posted

Has it really, haha.

Well it was quite prominent and I cant see it. I remember it well because I copied and pasted somewhere else. I'm sure to be corrected on this at some point. 

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fromey Experienced

fromey

Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
Posted

becarefull when entering the mod thread, they are already talking about the end of the cold spell before its even got going after the model runs from overnight :nonono::wallbash:

 

fromey

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Rich_Clements Rising Star

Rich_Clements

Posted
  • Location: Eastington Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Hot in Summer Cold in Winter
  • Location: Eastington Gloucestershire
Posted (edited)

Feeling a little deflated now having read the MOD thread, I guess its not meant to be for us this year.

 

Edit: you must have been typing at the same time fromey, I must stay positive.

Edited by Rich_Clements
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Kiwi Experienced

Kiwi

Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl
Posted

Very disappointing update from Ian in the Mod thread. You can argue the toss with most members but if the Met are saying no snow for South then I reckon we are out of luck.....again!

Still 6 weeks of winter left.

EDIT: I'm going to remain positive. Still time for upgrades

Yes ...I'm remaining positive! Too early to write off this potential cold spell yet.

Especially with Rachel still passing through UK (storm centre is only now just to NW of Scotland and isn't forecast to move off towards Norway until this evening)

I've often noticed marked changes in the models once a significant storm passes through.......so  I'm hoping for upgrades come the 18z GFS  :cold:

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Bobd29 Enthusiast

Bobd29

Posted
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts
  • Weather Preferences: hot summers; frigid winters; golden fall; bright spring
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts
Posted

Well it was quite prominent and I cant see it. I remember it well because I copied and pasted somewhere else. I'm sure to be corrected on this at some point.

I find it amusing that 'bad news' is taken as gospel but when the models show what we want there is anxiety. Ian has stated the current likelihood but the event is days away and nobody would bet the house on the exact positioning of an lp within 100 miles at that range. I do believe that the odds are still firmly 50/50 as to whether south of the M4 joins in the snowiest or not, give it at least another 48 hours to see whether we can interest France in accommodating some of our lp......glass half full
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AWD Veteran

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Posted (edited)

I think we ought to remember that the latest output taken at face value is disappointing snow wise for our region.

That doesn't mean to say it's correct. Snow is difficult to forecast so whilst I would say wintry mix/rain/sleet is favoured based on current guidance, it's far from a certainty and not worth throwing the towel in just yet.

At least there is interest to observe in the models.

Edited by AWD
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festivalking Experienced

festivalking

Posted
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: The fabled channel low
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
Posted

Wet snow has returned to the tops of the tors on Dartmoor this morning. So the cold air has dug in can only get colder from here

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fromey Experienced

fromey

Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
Posted

i think at this range take everything with a pinch of salt, lets get the cold in first, its pointless to predict where the snow will fall at this range, the models will swing from one outcome to the next and so will the mod thread, if you take take everything thats written at face value then you will go stark raveing mad!!

 

fromey

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dec10snow Aficionado

dec10snow

Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
Posted

Fergies post in the mod thread:

Hang on! Talking *solely* about the initial Mon-Tues evolution (albeit EC has some snow further S too): NOT the whole sequence through rest of week!!!

Looks like some read into it too much, so maybe some snow for us next week yet, but obviously too far out to be at all accurate.

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fromey Experienced

fromey

Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
Posted

Fergies post in the mod thread:

Hang on! Talking *solely* about the initial Mon-Tues evolution (albeit EC has some snow further S too): NOT the whole sequence through rest of week!!!

Looks like some read into it too much, so maybe some snow for us next week yet, but obviously too far out to be at all accurate.

i was just about to copy and paste that myself, i will say it again do not read to much into anything at this stage!!!

 

fromey

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lettice Community Regular

lettice

Posted
  • Location: Gosport
  • Location: Gosport
Posted

Hang on! Talking *solely* about the initial Mon-Tues evolution (albeit EC has some snow further S too): NOT the whole sequence through rest of week!!!

 

Noticed Ian gave an update that looks good for us

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kumquat Seasoned

kumquat

Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
Posted (edited)

Well the latest 6Z GFS shows snow for some in the North of our region (of course, it is extremely marginal and probably reserved for the highest ground) as early as 19:00 this evening so who knows exactly what will happen and where going into the weekend, nevermind next Monday/Tuesday.

 

gfs-2-12.png?6

Edited by kumquat
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fromey Experienced

fromey

Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
Posted

we can breath a little easier, the 6z seems to be ok!!

 

fromey

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Nights King Accomplished

Nights King

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
Posted (edited)

Good morning fellow snow nutters.

 

I checked thread briefly on phone from the comfort of my bed and nearly ran for the medicine cabinet.. :fool:  

 

I see my met office app has changed from snow every day to cold rain.. :cc_confused:  :wallbash: seems a little too warm at moment for much wintry in region. 5.9c here.

 

lets hope we see upgrades later on 12z :)

 

Dropped slightly 5.7c with a low dp of -1c so heavy enough shower might be interesting.

Edited by Nights King
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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

12mm of rain yesterday, 13.6mm today.

A wild night! There were some seriously powerful gusts around midnight, causing power outages and such..

Currently 7.8°C & blustery but sunny. A few hail showers about too.

A tweet from Liam Dutton: @liamdutton: The storm giving gales & rain tonight and tomorrow will be the last for a while, as jet stream powers down. It'll then be cold for a week.

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fromey Experienced

fromey

Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
Posted

Good morning fellow snow nutters.

 

I checked thread briefly on phone from the comfort of my bed and nearly ran for the medicine cabinet.. :fool:  

 

I see my met office app has changed from snow every day to cold rain.. :cc_confused:  :wallbash: seems a little too warm at moment for much wintry in region. 5.9c here.

 

lets hope we see upgrades later on 12z :)

Step away from the prozac!! im sure we will be fine, we have heard marginial before and ended up with some good snow fall totals, plus your way up in the clouds!!

 

fromey

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted (edited)

Personally I would be happy if that 06z GFS were to verify. Chances over the weekend for some snow and into next week for our region, then the easterly I'm convinced would favour our region more than most apart from the South East who would get a pasting. I'd happily look forward to spring if we could get a good 3-5 day easterly in with snow and a few ice days.

I'm not sure what temp difference(850's - sea temps) aids good convection, but currently North Sea temps are 8-9C and with uppers of -7/-8C that's adequate I'm sure and on a stiff bone chilling wind should spread well inland, then there's the chance of disturbances in the flow. ALL IS TO PLAY FOR IMHO

Edited by karlos1983
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Nights King Accomplished

Nights King

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
Posted

Step away from the prozac!! im sure we will be fine, we have heard marginial before and ended up with some good snow fall totals, plus your way up in the clouds!!

 

fromey

 

Don't worry I have none left at the moment I need to make a run into town :D  I had a long lay in this morning to get over the trauma of other night. Sods law though I am back to work when the cold spell is really meant to bite (if it does)  

 

Frome normally does okay being at modest height if marginal but we could do with snowline being less than 50 miles to our north please for a chance  :hi:

Personally I would be happy if that 06z GFS were to verify. Chances over re weekend for some snow and into next week for our region, then the easterly I'm convinced would favour our region more than most apart from the South East who would get a pasting. I'd happily look forward to spring if we could get a good 3-5 day easterly in with snow and s few ice days.

 

Spring after 3 -5 days!? I have not seen a winter in 2 years I would like more than a couple of frosts to make up for it. :nonono:

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

Don't worry I have none left at the moment I need to make a run into town :D  I had a long lay in this morning to get over the trauma of other night. Sods law though I am back to work when the cold spell is really meant to bite (if it does)  

 

Frome normally does okay being at modest height if marginal but we could do with snowline being less than 50 miles to our north please for a chance  :hi:

 

Spring after 3 -5 days!? I have not seen a winter in 2 years I would like more than a couple of frosts to make up for it. :nonono:

I'd take anything after last Winter NK!

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Nights King Accomplished

Nights King

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
Posted

I'd take anything after last Winter NK!

 

Last year hurt I agree but lets not lose sight of the goal after one knock back.... If you get rejected once in a club you don't settle for the ugly one :rofl:  :D

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