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South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion - 1300z 12/1/15 ------>


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I have a plan......   All this marginal/north of the M4 malarkey is too boring to tolerate any longer, we've got to do something. Considering just how much rain we get down here, we could have the m

Agreed. Trough circa 3am may extend snow showers across even to S of London (hence UKMO warning amended). Meanwhile, latest UKV and MOGREPS signal for snow remains particularly strong for Exmoor and M

What a beauty!   By far the best chart of the Winter, very much deserving of an OMG for this regional.      You couldn't make it up, just remember as a NWP model chart at t+84 hours, it is jus

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Just signed in to say "gusts of 40mph". Oh yeah, and 0-1 :), But I'm seeing tantalising references to the new GFS so I shall wait till half-time and will back-track a few pages to find out what all the excitement is about. Whatever it is I'm saying nowt :rofl:

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Oh i've been lying alright ... I'm going to be a mummy again! ... however little lady hasn't seen snow since her 1st winter so we better get some - I wanna go out ot play before I'm too fat I can't stand up lol

 

Many congratulations, Stormforce! Best of luck with it all xxx :give_rose:

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Im very confident of the South and West coast of Isle of Wight will easily hit 60-70mph tonight, things really are beginning to howl out there! The other thing which is a bit concerning, with our already flooded areas, this rain tonight going to cause havoc by the Morning! Might head out and get some snappers Tomorrow!

 

Oh P.S

 

CHANNEL LOW CHANNEL LOW CHANNEL LOW! ;)

 

Hello neighbour :)

The flooding is getting a bit more concerning, with heavy rainfall expect overnight there will no doubt be disruption to island services by daylight hours, and if the wind gusts do produce the forecasted ranges then will also be some debris to contend with too out on the roads.

 

Had some beefy gusts in last 30 mins

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Wot do u fellow islanders think of our chance of snow next week?? Bound to miss us ugh as always but I'm praying!! Lol

Arreton resident here.

As you know us islanders are allways the last to see snow. Overall I would say we are in with a chance but I won't be happy until I see lying snow outside.For sure its gonna get real chilly next week though.

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Oh i've been lying alright ... I'm going to be a mummy again! ... however little lady hasn't seen snow since her 1st winter so we better get some - I wanna go out ot play before I'm too fat I can't stand up lol

Congrats 

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Blowing serious here South of Dartmoor, 32.2 mph ( 50 mph on my hand held anometre ) its a constand roar outside, and one of the most sustained storms for a while. Cant wait for the squall front to come by and see what gusts we get then.

Then I am looking for a north flow and cold air mass and potential low attacking sothern areas from that low moving in from the West spitting the high pressure up... could snow? it is   possible.

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Hello neighbour :)

The flooding is getting a bit more concerning, with heavy rainfall expect overnight there will no doubt be disruption to island services by daylight hours, and if the wind gusts do produce the forecasted ranges then will also be some debris to contend with too out on the roads.

 

Had some beefy gusts in last 30 mins

Ahaa Hello Neighbour :D

 

Talking about debris, I dont know if you seen my report from last night, but it looks as though a Tornado rippled through the island yesterday, the track of damage and path it took im 100% convinced!

As for Tonight, it is looking rather concerning, especially with the flooding for sure I agree, worse areas will be the usual, such as Brading, Adgerstone, Alverstone, Newchurch, Ryde, etc everywhere will be bad i think :/ and our Strongest winds  i reckon will be when the cold front moves through, which im confident that winds will get really quite bad :).

 

 

Wot do u fellow islanders think of our chance of snow next week?? Bound to miss us ugh as always but I'm praying!! Lol

At the moment judging by the charts, the chances look fairly good at the moment but of course its still a while off so definatly not getting excited yet :L!

 

Also just to note these sort of set ups, especially if its an Easterly, the actual Island is normally one of the first to see snow along South Coast due the warmer seas, reacting with the very cold air, which increases the shower risk off the sea, where we are open to the sea we would be hit more likely from showers, especially the South of Island :D.

 

Fingers crossed!

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Anybody prepared to go and shift that ship on its side before it shifts in the gales tonight, bound to move on its mooring in these winds.

I would but I gotta be somewhere........

Getting some beefy gusts here now!!

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Anybody prepared to go and shift that ship on its side before it shifts in the gales tonight, bound to move on its mooring in these winds.

Just hope its fuel tanks stay in tact. It's a bloody ecological disaster waiting to happen.

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And just like that Steve Murr has dashed all hope for our region *at the moment* in the MOD thread. I'm off to cry now.

As if he knows... he has been promising a pattern change to cold since early November!! if he says it won't snow suggest you get your shovel out

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As if he knows... he has been promising a pattern change to cold since early November!! if he says it won't snow suggest you get your shovel out

Haha! I will! The latest model run from GFS upgrades things again, how long can we keep going on like this I wonder

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Just signed in to say "gusts of 40mph". Oh yeah, and 0-1 :), But I'm seeing tantalising references to the new GFS so I shall wait till half-time and will back-track a few pages to find out what all the excitement is about. Whatever it is I'm saying nowt :rofl:

great win for the boys tonight COYR!

Back to the weather it's all a bit winter of 2013/14 out there!

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Anyone got any size 1 heavy weighted boots lol, im dreading letting my tiny tiny yorkshire terrier out in the gusts to go peepee's..quite possibly she may get blown whilst taking a pee, its getting very gusty now.

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Just taken a screen shot of the current radar.. Oddly the heaviest PPN is over land? You can see the lightest green is in the Bristol channel and can make out the shape of Wales and sw England.. What's that about? Or is it coincidence?

post-9503-0-29984700-1421276569_thumb.jp

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As if he knows... he has been promising a pattern change to cold since early November!! if he says it won't snow suggest you get your shovel out

That's totally uncalled for imo, he's one of the most knowledgeable posters on this site, the guy knows his stuff and it wasn't just the south West he was commenting on missing out, other areas including where he lives as well according to the models at the time, but as he also alluded to the track of this lp won't be known until much closer to the event.

No doubt if the lp position changes in future runs then so will his assessment of what areas could see snow from it and I expect you wouldn't be so quick to disrespect the guy if he was saying what you want to hear!

Edited by Smartie
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