South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion - 1300z 12/1/15 ------>

[khodds]

pessimist or realist?

 

Best I can do for now.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82259-south-west-central-southern-england-regional-discussion-1300z-12115/?p=3136277

thanks for the update

[offerman]

Ready for summer now, please start early :-)

[Andy Bown]

The overnight cloud didn't clear in time to allow a frost, but it did in time for sunrise and it's a really fine day with Stratocumulus and sunny spells, cold temperature at 4.6c but it doesn't feel too bad.

[Dorsetbred]

Bright (and I mean bright) sunshine here, a sign of things to come one hopes, just need a few degrees under it's bonnet and we'll be well on the way into spring. The garden already has it in it's mind that spring is here, lillies flowering, plenty of bulbs bursting through and flower heads well developed.

[karlos1983]

pessimist or realist?

 

Best I can do for now.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82259-south-west-central-southern-england-regional-discussion-1300z-12115/?p=3136277

Realist/past similar setups. Being as this weeks apparent cold spell(failure), I'm refusing to get sucked in now until roughly +0

[Nights King]

Realist/past similar setups. Being as this weeks apparent cold spell(failure), I'm refusing to get sucked in now until roughly +0

 

The next week of winter proper is a write off which leaves us with one month with an ever increasing strength of sun so any cold spell will have to be that bit colder to maintain any snow cover if any does indeed occur...

 

So that leaves us with 3-4 weeks to save this appalling winter. 

[jethro]

Just driven back from work near Bristol and the grit lorries are out in force. They're gritting everywhere, even lanes which never get gritted. Currently it's not very cold with near total cloud cover, checked the forecast for tonight, -1 with zero chance of snow; what's going on?

 

They either know something we don't, or they've checked the long term forecast and decided we've had the worse this winter can offer, it's time to get rid of the grit they've stockpiled for the last two years. 

[offerman]

Jethro, might have to use some of the gritt up to get max amount for next years quota.

 

 

Lets hope this Azores high can stay as strong for our summer , sods law it`ll probably ridge in to mid atlantic bring a cool few weeks Northerly in mid summer.

 

Just a thought, never know one to stay this long, i.e since last October then last for one year!!!

[Andy Bown]

I know we're all bemoaning the lack of snow this week, but having checked my records there have been 2 days this week with the lowest maxxes since the bitter last week of March 2013. So while we may be lulled into thinking this winter is going the same way as last year it is actually much colder and (thankfully!) drier.

[MP-R]

I know we're all bemoaning the lack of snow this week, but having checked my records there have been 2 days this week with the lowest maxxes since the bitter last week of March 2013. So while we may be lulled into thinking this winter is going the same way as last year it is actually much colder and (thankfully!) drier.

 

Fair point there Andy. I think if some on here took a closer look at both winters, this one has been a lot better as it has actually felt like winter on many occasions. There's been more wintry variety this year with fog, notable frosts and at least a little wintry precipitation. I think this year's frustration is from the fact we've been so close to brilliant synoptics on too many occasions and been led up the garden path all too often. At least last year we knew by now that the winter was 'one of those odd ones'.

 

I've actually enjoyed some of the recent weather. A trip to Burrington last week heralded a covering of snow under blue skies and every night bar one since last Wednesday has been below freezing. I think I just would have rather had precipitation-free days altogether than risk getting snow and actually end up with rain.

[gottolovethisweather]

Fair point there Andy. I think if some on here took a closer look at both winters, this one has been a lot better as it has actually felt like winter on many occasions. There's been more wintry variety this year with fog, notable frosts and at least a little wintry precipitation. I think this year's frustration is from the fact we've been so close to brilliant synoptics on too many occasions and been led up the garden path all too often. At least last year we knew by now that the winter was 'one of those odd ones'.

 

I've actually enjoyed some of the recent weather. A trip to Burrington last week heralded a covering of snow under blue skies and every night bar one since last Wednesday has been below freezing. I think I just would have rather had precipitation-free days altogether than risk getting snow and actually end up with rain.

 

Indeed being "led up the garden path all too often" as you state is something which often grates me with certain posters (no naming names here) in the MOD thread as they will comment and repeatedly talk up charts outside FI, which on occasions this Winter has varied from D3 or less to D8. Nothing wrong with analysing the outputs and forming an opinion based around it but they (my referred to complainants) should come back and learn from their mistakes and thereby post differently in the future. Anyway, each to their own but you can see how, when and why folk get pee'd off with that thread in particular when people follow the hype but discard the potential reality of the developing situation. Sometimes, all that is needed is a simple statement such as that made by Louise Lear just now regarding the weekend, Cold and sunny Saturday, Mild but cloudy Sunday. Yes, a wee bit too simplistic for some but the details will probably not be far wrong. For a judgement call of my own forecasts, this is what I had to say prior to our current spell of weather.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82259-south-west-central-southern-england-regional-discussion-1300z-12115/?p=3126145

 

I personally don't think I did too badly on the broader synoptics referred to in the above, given the the seven day timescales involved.

 

Here is an example of a fail based on an opinion being formed against one chart output in isolation, again from myself but hopefully one that was not taken too seriously at the time.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82259-south-west-central-southern-england-regional-discussion-1300z-12115/?p=3128153

 

Just thought I'd chuck these observations out there and as for my opinion on the rest of this Winter and when it might end or even begin. I like to use the Astronomical calendar for judging snow probabilities based on day-length which leaves us plenty of scope for wintriness and in which case, Winter hasn't started off badly and there is plenty of time left too, over eight weeks in fact.

Edited January 22, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[somersetsnow]

Just thought I would ask........ what does any one think of Simon Keeling? ( Weatherweb) I watch his Forecast"s and they are pretty much spot on, also very informative

 

Don't like to hop in the MOD thread too often,as it's a bit   and  'School Play Ground like'

[MP-R]

Ah yes, GTLTW, being led up the garden path by both the models AND posters is a double whammy. It will never change but this year I actually thought some of the trends that seemed to show up for 3-4 days at a time would verify given the positive background signals (unlike last year). Alas, we've had an incredibly watered down version which really has delivered only a slightly colder than average spell to these parts.

 

I admire your optimism for snow opportunities right through to the end of March. Maybe this year will be one of those years when winter gets shunted two months ahead. Hopefully charts will become more indicative of proper cold for early Feb, though even then I wouldn't believe it until I see it.

 

Going by the last five occurrences of lying snow here in March, let's hope any cold spell in March is in the first half of the month.

 

March 2013: 00.5cm (11th)

March 2009: 00.5cm (04th)

March 2008: 02cm (23rd)

March 2006: 06cm (01st) / 11cm (12th)

March 2004: 05cm (12th)

[Nights King]

Ah yes, GTLTW, being led up the garden path by both the models AND posters is a double whammy. It will never change but this year I actually thought some of the trends that seemed to show up for 3-4 days at a time would verify given the positive background signals (unlike last year). Alas, we've had an incredibly watered down version which really has delivered only a slightly colder than average spell to these parts.

 

I admire your optimism for snow opportunities right through to the end of March. Maybe this year will be one of those years when winter gets shunted two months ahead. Hopefully charts will become more indicative of proper cold for early Feb, though even then I wouldn't believe it until I see it.

 

Going by the last five occurrences of lying snow here in March, let's hope any cold spell in March is in the first half of the month.

 

March 2013: 00.5cm (11th)

March 2009: 00.5cm (04th)

March 2008: 02cm (23rd)

March 2006: 06cm (01st) / 11cm (12th)

March 2004: 05cm (12th)

 

I'll add April 4th 2000 to that list with a whopping 20cm and drifts which lasted into last week of April.

 

I even found video with news on it.

 

What memory's I remember hiding from mother behind a snow drift smoking something with friends

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vmeAe5Bw5Nc

Edited January 22, 2015 by Nights King

[chris55]

Thick freezing fog forming, a slight hore frost developing on the shrubs lol. If we can keep the temps low till dawn then it should be a pretty and wintry early morning

[Nights King]

Thick freezing fog forming, a slight hore frost developing on the shrubs lol. If we can keep the temps low till dawn then it should be a pretty and wintry early morning

 

Blimey I had not even realised it was frosty until you said that, checked and it is -3c

[MP-R]

I'll add April 4th 2000 to that list with a whopping 20cm and drifts which lasted into last week of April.

 

I even found video with news on it.

 

What memory's I remember hiding from mother behind a snow drift smoking something with friends

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vmeAe5Bw5Nc

 

Wow! That looks pretty bad for early April. How do I not remember that - I certainly remember 14th April 1999. Was this quite a marginal event at lower levels?

[Nights King]

Wow! That looks pretty bad for early April. How do I not remember that - I certainly remember 14th April 1999. Was this quite a marginal event at lower levels?

 

Yes lowland Somerset saw rain/sleet/wet snow mix below 100m although still pretty disruptive but over 200m it was nearly 48 hours of snow and ranks as one of best storms I have ever seen I think it was the same time poor jeth was moving house up to the mendips? 

 

We were cut off for a couple of days and I worked in wells so they were less than pleased.

[Mark Neal.]

-4.5c currently after a high early afternoon of 4.4c. 

[gottolovethisweather]

-4.5c currently after a high early afternoon of 4.4c. 

 

Jeez, going to be a cold one in your neck of the woods, Benson possibly on for a -8 to -10c perhaps? -2.1c here in Newbury, -4.1c minimum to beat in my patch which occurred on the 20th. Second in preference to snow are these nights with clear skies and sunshine by day, I certainly wouldn't mind more of them.

Edited January 22, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[andy_leics22]

Jeez, going to be a cold one in your neck of the woods, Benson possibly on for a -8 to -10c perhaps? -2.1c here in Newbury, -4.1c minimum to beat in my patch which occurred on the 20th. Second in preference to snow are these nights with clear skies and sunshine by day, I certainly wouldn't mind more of them.

I've never understood why Benson seems to be 2-3 degrees colder than other areas around it on a frosty night. I guess it must be a frost hollow where the Weather station is located.

Edited January 22, 2015 by andy_leics22

[Kiwi]

Jeez, going to be a cold one in your neck of the woods, Benson possibly on for a -8 to -10c perhaps? -2.1c here in Newbury, -4.1c minimum to beat in my patch which occurred on the 20th. Second in preference to snow are these nights with clear skies and sunshine by day, I certainly wouldn't mind more of them.

Benson reporting -6c at 21.50.  

-3.3c here in rural..ish  N Hampshire

[karlos1983]

-1.6C here. Would expect that to double by sunrise!

I really would like some snow at Some point this winter, so when I'm clearing it off my windscreen I can through a nice compact ball straight at my neighbours face, as he has driven past my car and just ripped my winger mirror clean off and didn't even acknowledge it. He's getting a visit tomorrow!

Edited January 22, 2015 by karlos1983

[Kiwi]

I've never understood why Benson seems to be 2-3 degrees colder than other areas around it on a frosty night. I guess it must be a frost hollow where the Weather station is located.

Benson sits on top of sandy soil which doesn't hold heat as well as other soil types. It is also situated at the bottom of the Chilterns in a dip, so cold air tends to drain into it and gather there.

[karlos1983]

Good positive post from Fergie in the Mod. Worth a butchers!