South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion - 1300z 12/1/15 ------>

[Dorsetbred]

4.1°C after 2.3mm of rain.

Damp and depressing this morning.

Looking forward to building a sleetman!

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I've got a freezer snowman mould you could use that..

[knocker]

Quite a pleasant morning here. Bits and bobs of Cu, temp 6.5C and wind NNW 10mph

[Mapantz]

As I mentioned yesterday, Wintry shower Saturday could give a bit of snow to the usual clan who live at a respectful altitude..

Fax chart shows a front moving nw to se, and being under cold enough air, you never know?

[MR EXTREMES]

well ive said my little piece in the mod thread absolutely incredible knee jerk reactions,

and it the same old suspects.

 

anyway nice to see you all alot of you in here are keeping the faith which is good to see as i see it we have the best chance or should i be realistic and say we have the best chances of snowfall now.

 

from the start of jan i was reading alot of what tamara was writing in the mod thread and then going of and looking at all the factors used by her and the other top posters on how the look at over all picture in the world of weather.

 

and tamara and chiono and steve nick sussex bluearmy ian f of coarse a fair few others really know there stuff and i put all there ideas together to get an idea of the likely situation.

 

there is no question in my mind as i suggested at the start of jan that the end of jan would becoming colder with a much better hemispheric set up which i might add has come about a week and a half earlier than i expected.

we are now heading into a very messy nowcast period where slightest movements of lower and higher heights can make pretty different effects.

 

the possibility of less colder air futher beyond the 8-10 day period is always a possibility but judging and looking at the models this is the worst ive seen so far a continued nw flow polar air possibly westerly flow still with polar air i see no mild south southwesterly with in any of the model runs none nothing so whats the likely outcome well with a split jet flow mjo moving into phase8/1 and the minor strat warming plus the first signs of northern blocking plus lower heights to our south as sliders move through and a displaced heights to our southwest its only a matter of time before the already weakened polar vortex starts to vacate the greenland area where heights could possible build in time for feb.

 

and as a added bonus we also are seeing signs of heights to the northeast into scandi area ,

although sketchy on exactly where the ne heights settle over all theres no need for knee jerk reaction things will change because there is not a stable pattern built in just yet but once depressions and heights settle then the picture becomes much clearer.

 

any how sorry for the waffle but these are my ideas im happy with the over all pattern right now one thing is certain there is nothing blow torch showing general theme cold colder perhaps less cold then colder again.

 

and this is by far the best winter period coming up since 2010 which seems like an eternity and i would go as far as to say feb could well be epic and maybe even cold start to spring although who cares about that right now there is cause for excitement.

 

it does not matter how quick the breakdown of cold comes because it will be less cold but still below average then we move on to the next cold chapter but id eat my computer desk if a half decent easterly does not setup before winter is over.

 

i have not posted up any charts either because id rather put charts up when the picture is much clearer.

[Chul]

*Wave Wave from up the M3* Not seen you on here before ...

Hello :-). I normally just visit and sit in the corner but thought I would come out and say "hi". Thanks for replying :-)

[fromey]

Morning met office yellow warning out for snow and ice for Saturday mainly for higher elevations but it's a start

Fromey

[Gas Ed]

Here's the Met Office warning valid from 03.00 to midday tomorrow:

 

"A band of rain, sleet and snow will spread east across the area on Saturday morning. 2-4 cm of snow are likely in places above 200 m, chiefly over Wales and the moors of southwest England, with the risk of temporary local accumulations to low levels. Icy patches may form, especially on untreated surfaces."

[Rich_Clements]

id eat my computer desk if a half decent easterly does not setup before winter is over.

 

 

Do you want fries with that?   only kidding 

 

Thanks for that positive post, i agree with you I think things are really looking good for the next month or so, nothing scientific just a hunch on my part.

[MPG]

South Westerly flow into Ireland and Scotland at 156. The pattern looks a mess of -5 being mixed in and out. No 'clean' cold air it seems at face value.

[MPG]

W COUNTRY SAT The @metoffice have issued a Yellow Warning for snow/ice Sat AM, 0300-1200. This relates primarily to areas 200+m elevation.

 

200!!!! That's ruled out probably most of us.

Edited January 16, 2015 by gottolovethisweather
better type for those readers who like their text nearer normal size

[Dorsetbred]

Hello :-). I normally just visit and sit in the corner but thought I would come out and say "hi". Thanks for replying :-)

Welcome to the nice thread

[fromey]

If the sky stays clear as they are now it's gonna get cold tonight, hopefully the cold won't get to mixed out when the moisture gets here in the early hours

Fromey

[festivalking]

5.5c and rainin

[Rich_Clements]

If the sky stays clear as they are now it's gonna get cold tonight, hopefully the cold won't get to mixed out when the moisture gets here in the early hours

Fromey

Talk of -4c on the radio this morning which I think covered your area as well fromey

[kumquat]

Euro4 6Z shows the extent of ppn for tomorrow morning. Looks like the usual higher ground unless you find yourself under heavier bursts.

 

 

As always, can't rule out the risk of a surprise to lower levels

[MPG]

Euro4 6Z shows the extent of ppn for tomorrow morning. Looks like the usual higher ground unless you find yourself under heavier bursts.

 

 

As always, can't rule out the risk of a surprise to lower levels

Yep, bang on. Higher ground of Wales, Exmoor, Mendips and Cotswolds.

[island lad]

Don't normally post on here but as an Isle of Wight resident I find this model malarkey very frustrating.

It's going to get cold over the next week for sure, but all I'm hoping for is an occasional dusting so anything more than that is a bonus. Every time snow is mentioned people always say to me - yeah but we won't get any.

Steve

[knocker]

Well th fine weather didn't last now have some nasty hail showers. The HR Modis for 1133z Credit "NERC Satellite Receiving Station, Dundee University, Scotland"  http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/

 

[Gibby]

Well I've just read the Met update on my iphone and it reads cold to me with snow opportunities at times over the next week or so. I really laugh at the folks over on MOD as they get so worked up over trivialities when a particular run or chart fails to deliver them what they want where they live. I think so much time is spent watching each model run most miss what's going on outside their windows anyway. We havent't really reached the cold spell yet and I have already seen two snow showers over recent days and at 250 ft asl that's not bad for me. Take it from me the next week or so will see plenty more opportunities for some of the white stuff  and even if we don't get snow it will of been a close run thing for most.

[katemart]

I think so much time is spent watching each model run most miss what's going on outside their windows anyway.

 

Ain't that the truth!

 

Another beautiful sunny day. 5.8C and calm. DP 2.2C. 1006mb and rising. 77% humidity and falling. Almost S****-like....

[Nights King]

W COUNTRY SAT The @metoffice have issued a Yellow Warning for snow/ice Sat AM, 0300-1200. This relates primarily to areas 200+m elevation.

 

200!!!! That's ruled out probably most of us.

 

    I will be in Bristol early morning so it is quite possible I will miss this any way!

[offerman]

I find it amazing how our country is so small that we can never get a country wide event! In the USA its such a different story, impressive cold areas that would cover most of NW Europe!

Great post. Very true, of course does happen but not as much as and widely as you mentioned over the pond.   Comes down to Land Mass i`m afraid.

 

America is massive and above it More land with canada so the cold air travels much further south and over a larger area with no mild jet to always affect them so much to mild as with us.

 

We are just a puny little island surround by a massive warm bath!!

[offerman]

Morning met office yellow warning out for snow and ice for Saturday mainly for higher elevations but it's a start

Fromey

Hi Fromey,

 

Well not quite the Longleat snowfest the other day but was interesting to see the top of Cley Hill covered and the middle to below with nothing :-)

 

Maybe this weekend around?

[fromey]

Hi Fromey,

 

Well not quite the Longleat snowfest the other day but was interesting to see the top of Cley Hill covered and the middle to below with nothing :-)

 

Maybe this weekend around?

hi mate, well is wasnt but i got up at 530am for work and it was heavy thick snow falling which didnt last, got into the top of bath by tesco petrol station and it was white!! and when the sun came up popped out of the RUH and went and had a look at lansdown which was covered and looked very pretty!! heres hoping for the coming week.

 

you were brave posting in the Model melt down thread

 

fromey

Edited January 16, 2015 by fromey

[ARTDEMOLE]

Cold weather alert for Saturday mentions accumulations to LOW LEVELS.....